Yup, he's very raw. He's not going to be able to play right away and that might scare some teams off from taking him in the top 20.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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The Thriller
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Still more offensive skill than Exum
Ehh. I think Exum is the cautionary tale for drafting international prospects from lower leagues and having sky-high hopes. Exum was destroying kids prior to coming here. Shot like a million free throws a game. Was supposed to be this force at the rim but it turns out he just didn’t ****ing play anybody.
That being said, Bilal DUNKS the ball with ferocity and gets UP.
TLDR; we really know so little until they get here and matchup in the NBA.
It's a risk, a big one truthfully, but with three picks, I would take it. There are signs/tools and it is possible that he can evolve into something good.
I would say that without 42 season ending injuries Exum would probably still be in the league today and would be on his way to a 10+ year NBA career. Not what you want from the 5th pick and not what you want from the guy with supposed sky high potential, but it's really not out of the ordinary. Top 5 picks bust and disappoint all the time regardless of where they played before the NBA.
Having said that, no two scenarios are the same. Exum was playing HS basketball in Australia whereas Bilal has at least been playing in professional leagues and his trajectory is unique. While not as legendary as the Anthony Davis growth spurt, things can change really fast when you grow 8 inches in two years. He was unknown even in France not too long ago. Up until like two weeks ago no one was saying he was better than Sidy or Rupert. It's confusing even some French fans who watch the youth levels closely.
I really think we're only at the beginning of his upward trajectory, but it's only fair to consider how far away he is right now. Offensively, he might be too raw for it to materialize into something great. But defensively I think he can come in and contribute right away. He's obviously got physical tools, but he was super engaged on defense when I watched him and he also has a knack for "doing stuff". One thing that was super disappointing about Exum is that he never super active. Didn't get a ton of rebounds, steals, deflections etc. When your offensive game is so raw you've got to find other ways to contribute. While both were hesitant to shoot, Exum kinda stayed in the corner praying he didn't have to shoot an open 3. Bilal is at least cutting, crashing the glass, and looking to push whenever he creates a turnover or gets a defensive rebound. There's no softness to him.
That's a lot of words to say that Bilal's mental game looks MUCH better and I would also say that he is way more impressive as an athlete. It's not just his vertical, his footwork on eurosteps and dexterity in the air is crazy. Makes it look easy.
I still think his most likely outcome is a McDaniels/Herb Jones type. Someone who is a complete defensive menace and does just enough to stay on the court. He has the upside to be much, much more on offense but it will take a ton of development. Defensively I think he's actually one of the safer picks in the draft. The defensive tools and mentality are in "can't fail" territory.
The hype is your faultThe Bilal hype wave is coming. Seeing a lot of random people putting him high on their boards. All this hype for a guy who scores 4 ppg in the French league. Who could ever fall for that?
..please start talking about Isaiah Wong instead.
Haha. He was barely playing at all for the senior team when he first caught my eye. I'm here to stay on the hype train, but it's only fair to be real about where is right now as a player.
I gleefully take him at #28. At #16 I get pretty sketched out. At #9 I would be screaming at the TV/computer Dok style.
I gotta stop you right there. Exum was an atrocious player in all reality. His one healthy year, he was arguably the worst player in the entire NBA depending on your minutes criteria. Yes, he was a rookie, but he was dog **** even for a rookie.
And the point is he was TERRIBLE at the one thing that he was supposed to be great at (getting to the rim and foul line). It was maybe one of his worst attributes of so many.
We can sit here and dream about how the Giannis thing is some kind of template, but it’s ever happened once.
In between Exum and Giannis, we need to think and live in reality. The reality is we know almost nothing about Bilal as an NBA-level prospect.
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fishonjazz
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Also… Hezonja? I don’t remember his name.
Meanwhile Jokic went in the 2nd round. Maybe unless it’s an obvious home run, overseas should generally be seen as a place you find diamonds in the rough (Ginobili, Tony Parker), not blow lottery picks on projects that haven’t played anybody.
Darko Milicic also.
And some of these busts actually had decent resumes, not showing flashes in the French JV leagues.
Handlogten's Heros
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I’m telling you guys… nba GMs are mostly cowards… I would bet large sums of money Bilal doesn’t go to 15. If we love him then take him there. It takes a lot is stone to bypass a guy like Jordan Hawkins or Jett Howard for the sexy new French Wing.
Maybe he shows out in the varsity games and we change our opinion but right now I would cackle if someone reached for him in the top 12.
Maybe he shows out in the varsity games and we change our opinion but right now I would cackle if someone reached for him in the top 12.
I worry about OKC, Orlando and Brooklyn taking him. Or in theory a team like Toronto doing a blockbuster trade for multiple picks. They would have multiple picks to burn. If I had the power to waive a wand for the Jazz, I would want Cam, Hendricks, or Ausur with the ninth. If not I would trade down for picks near the middle of the round and take alot of swings for stars there.
If Exum never had injury issues he would have developed enough to have a long NBA career. Even with his injuries he signed a second deal, if the Jazz didn't give it to him someone else would have. The problem is he kept getting injured and spent most of his time rehabbing instead of actually improving.
Also, compared to Exum, we have an encyclopedia of information on Bilal to evaluate. It's not close to the same situation. Bilal is not an unknown who is playing in dimly lit gyms in Greece or Australia, he just happens to be blossoming alongside one of the most watched prospects ever. Lot of eyes on him now that he's playing on the senior team next to Wemby, and there's still a decent chuck of the season left.
It would be a joy if someone did. Like if someone grabbed NSJ top-15.
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I’m not sold on him so I’d be happy if one of those teams did that. The guy I really want with 16 is Hawkins… so any non Hawkins picks between 10-15 are fine by me.
The one are where "unknown" helps is the draft. The draft is basically just a hype machine anyways. There have been many players who rise or maintain a high draft position simply due to not playing. Compared to other lottery picks over the years, we have an encyclopedia of info on Bilal.
This is a Jazz forum right? The last times we had high draft picks we drafted Exum and Kanter lol.
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I like Bilal more than NSJ but I agree.