2024-2025 Tank Race

[Handlogten's Heros]

I've become somewhat forgiving of the "half tank" because pretty much every "tanking" team is making the same "mistake". Truth is, it's probably less of a mistake than it is reality. You can't just trade guys whenever you want even if they're good, valuable players. The idea of snapping your fingers and turning players into assets is a falsehood. If it was so easy, we'd see teams like POR and BKN already gutting their roster. Like you're really going to tell me BKN doesn't know they should tank or want to? Of course they do. BKN isn't trying to get cute with things, it's just the reality of their situation. I think it was poor work by DA to take two whole seasons to get here (and that was likely a result of him being too much of a stickler), but it doesn't happen as easily as people make it out to be. You could make the argument that the Jazz would have been better off simply giving everyone away for free, but that's not going to happen in a real world situation.

When you're in a position with a bunch of vets leftover from a previous version of the team, the expectation should not be that you can turn them into picks quickly and tank perfectly. The expectation should be that you'd be lucky to get anything for them immediately and more realistically you will have to wait and get very little to nothing. It's a mistake to think that these trades can happen at any time and also a mistake to think that you're going to get anything good. I remember when we were talking about 2 unprotected first round picks in the Lakers deal. We didn't even get half of that lol. We have this idea that tanking is so simplistic and effective, but real life doesn't work like it does in a video game.

IMO you can't be both unhappy with the return on our vets through trade and unhappy with the lack of tanking. This magical world were we get good value for them and get to tank does not exist. Complete fantasy.

I think there is a lot of truth to this... but I also think we had an offer that was very close to what we ended up taking. We had plenty of time in the transaction window to make the move we wanted to. They were greedy and misdiagnosed what they had leftover from a standpoint of winning games. Some of that was stuff that wouldn't have been predicted some was pretty predictable.

Some other teams that need to move off vets likely didn't have an offer for some of them like Brooklyn with Shroeder. Though if they wanted to they could move DFS and Cam Johnson for 50 cents on the dollar this season.

Since the Rudy/Don trades I'm fairly understanding of some of the mistakes they made. Some made no sense but they weren't end of the world type of stuff (THT Collins). I like what they are doing with where they are for the most part. We just need some help from lady luck one way or another. The ultimate ceiling of this rebuild likely is determined by how lucky we get over the next 2 years. I think they are maximizing (or close to it) their chances at getting lucky and being able to take advantage of that luck. All you can ask for really.

 

[KqWIN]

I think there is a lot of truth to this... but I also think we had an offer that was very close to what we ended up taking. We had plenty of time in the transaction window to make the move we wanted to. They were greedy and misdiagnosed what they had leftover from a standpoint of winning games. Some of that was stuff that wouldn't have been predicted some was pretty predictable.

Some other teams that need to move off vets likely didn't have an offer for some of them like Brooklyn with Shroeder. Though if they wanted to they could move DFS and Cam Johnson for 50 cents on the dollar this season.

Since the Rudy/Don trades I'm fairly understanding of some of the mistakes they made. Some made no sense but they weren't end of the world type of stuff (THT Collins). I like what they are doing with where they are for the most part. We just need some help from lady luck one way or another. The ultimate ceiling of this rebuild likely is determined by how lucky we get over the next 2 years. I think they are maximizing (or close to it) their chances at getting lucky and being able to take advantage of that luck. All you can ask for really.

There may have been an offer, I know there was reporting, but that 2 unprotected pick package was probably complete fantasy. And if there was any offer before the season we probably should have taken it because those 50 cents on the dollar trades are hard to find in the first place. I don't doubt that DA's greed has hurt us in one way or another because no matter how difficult it is, you can't take two whole years to do this. I can believe that there was a Bogey->LAL deal and Conley->LAC deal(s) on the table because it made sense+ reporting, but the takeaway from that is that DA should have jumped on those deals and found a way to make it happen even if the compensation wasn't much.

I just wanted to put it out there because what happened to us and what's happening to BKN, POR ect.....that's closer to truth than finding good offer for vets. I think the reality is that teams either have no offers for these guys at all or they have offers for pennies and they simply won't accept those kinds of deals in the real world. We may have been extra slow to get here, but the pivot tank isn't as seamless as it may be in NBA 2K. It was bad news for us back then, but I consider it good news for us now because there are a handful of teams that might want to tank but will find it more difficult to do so/it will take longer to get there than expected. These teams aren't completely stupid, and I don't think we were either two years ago. It just doesn't happen that easy. We'll see some trades, but I think we'll see more sore backs that take weeks to heal.

 

[HermanG]

Holy Cow. That sucks.

Not that we need another pick this year, but that's an actual valuable asset we gave away.

Well then you're not gonna like the fact that our 2026 2RP went there too on that same trade, and could also be top 35.

They used that pick to get Leonard Miller at 33 (also added their own 2028 2RP in that package) so now Spurs own it.

 

[HermanG]

The greatest mistake in the Jazz’s fumbling the ball at the 1 yard line in ‘22-‘23 is not the Conley trade that DID happen (I probably make that move in the situation that existed at the time), it was not sending Bojan, Vanderbilt, Beasley, Beverly, and (+ maybe Clarkson) before the season to the Lakers for Russ (+ maybe THT) and a pick. I seem to recall @Tony Jones reporting that the Jazz walked on that framework.

But the Conley trade was pretty unsavory. Especially since that pick (Hendricks) is looking like booty right now and they might’ve done just as well if not better if they didn’t cut their own legs off just to get the 9th pick (the lesson here being that if you’re gonna tank, TANK; don’t get cute about it).

Non-trades are harder to assess because we dont know if it was us or the other side who opted out.

Only problem in that Conley trade was that DA allowed Connely to squeeze NAW and those picks from us. We relieved Lakers of their biggest problem and solved some issues for Minny, so throwing in those knick knacks from our side didnt feel right.

We may have had no other partners to take Conley, but both Minny and Lakers were supposed to be the more desperate than us to make the deal happen.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Well then you're not gonna like the fact that our 2026 2RP went there too on that same trade, and could also be top 35.

They used that pick to get Leonard Miller at 33 (also added their own 2028 2RP in that package) so now Spurs own it.

Yikes.

I remember needing to add some second round picks to that trade, but didn't remember them being our picks and until now didn't picture them being basically late firsts.

We have to hope that Lakers pick is worth it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There may have been an offer, I know there was reporting, but that 2 unprotected pick package was probably complete fantasy. And if there was any offer before the season we probably should have taken it because those 50 cents on the dollar trades are hard to find in the first place. I don't doubt that DA's greed has hurt us in one way or another because no matter how difficult it is, you can't take two whole years to do this. I can believe that there was a Bogey->LAL deal and Conley->LAC deal(s) on the table because it made sense+ reporting, but the takeaway from that is that DA should have jumped on those deals and found a way to make it happen even if the compensation wasn't much.

I just wanted to put it out there because what happened to us and what's happening to BKN, POR ect.....that's closer to truth than finding good offer for vets. I think the reality is that teams either have no offers for these guys at all or they have offers for pennies and they simply won't accept those kinds of deals in the real world. We may have been extra slow to get here, but the pivot tank isn't as seamless as it may be in NBA 2K. It was bad news for us back then, but I consider it good news for us now because there are a handful of teams that might want to tank but will find it more difficult to do so/it will take longer to get there than expected. These teams aren't completely stupid, and I don't think we were either two years ago. It just doesn't happen that easy. We'll see some trades, but I think we'll see more sore backs that take weeks to heal.

I think there was some sort of offer there pre-season. If it was two picks the deal gets done... so yeah that part is fantasy.

With Porty I don't think they have solid leadership and have a coach and GM that are trying to prove their value (to NBA teams as well as their current employer) so I am not sure they thought they were tankers internally.

Brooklyn is very much like us a couple years ago. Caught in the air here with a good young coach and a bunch of vets performing well and no terrible young players to send minutes to. I think they had a better case to think they would suck but I also think they may not have considered exactly how bad the East was. I think all these teams try to thread the needle more than the Process Sixers did though. Maybe in part because of how they got treated but also partly cuz of the "hold out for amazing value for our vets" thinking. I also think part of it is not wanting to be historically bad. "Keep some of this around cuz it won't kill the tank and make us professional" type thinking. Which is fine in the case of the Wiz who have the Michael Jordan or tank commanders to go with a Parisian Pippen who is good but not so good he will lift the floor of that team. So you can keep Deni and Gafford (last year) and Kuz this year. Raps are fine because their guys have gotten hurt but might have issue if they get healthy and have an Eastern heavy schedule.

I worry slightly when Walker comes back that Williams is out of the rotation because of Flip and Flip is too functional and we creep into 6th worst territory. I have gotten a little greedy and would like us bottom 4.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yikes.

I remember needing to add some second round picks to that trade, but didn't remember them being our picks and until now didn't picture them being basically late firsts.

We have to hope that Lakers pick is worth it.

Minny truly capitalized on how effing dumb the Lakers are lol. We would have gladly dealt directly with LA and send them a 2nd or two with NAW and Conley... they loved DLo so much tho. When in doubt blame the Lakers.

All in all I think we end up okay. First minny pick is still Key so that is solid. They likely can't keep all their guys so will lose NAW or someone else. Mike seems to be slowing way down now. We increased our chances at a top 4 pick and ended with a consolation prize but the odds can't be ignored even if they didn't hit imo.

 

[KqWIN]

I think there was some sort of offer there pre-season. If it was two picks the deal gets done... so yeah that part is fantasy.

With Porty I don't think they have solid leadership and have a coach and GM that are trying to prove their value (to NBA teams as well as their current employer) so I am not sure they thought they were tankers internally.

Brooklyn is very much like us a couple years ago. Caught in the air here with a good young coach and a bunch of vets performing well and no terrible young players to send minutes to. I think they had a better case to think they would suck but I also think they may not have considered exactly how bad the East was. I think all these teams try to thread the needle more than the Process Sixers did though. Maybe in part because of how they got treated but also partly cuz of the "hold out for amazing value for our vets" thinking. I also think part of it is not wanting to be historically bad. "Keep some of this around cuz it won't kill the tank and make us professional" type thinking. Which is fine in the case of the Wiz who have the Michael Jordan or tank commanders to go with a Parisian Pippen who is good but not so good he will lift the floor of that team. So you can keep Deni and Gafford (last year) and Kuz this year. Raps are fine because their guys have gotten hurt but might have issue if they get healthy and have an Eastern heavy schedule.

I worry slightly when Walker comes back that Williams is out of the rotation because of Flip and Flip is too functional and we creep into 6th worst territory. I have gotten a little greedy and would like us bottom 4.

Part of this decision making is the flattened odds as well. That's kind of the whole idea behind tank + Lauri. However good or bad you thought the Jazz were, it's kind of understood that Laui will cost us some lotto balls but in a lot of cases it's worth it to a better roster with less lotto odds. I think that is a more legit way of thinking than burning lotto balls to ensure the most value in a trade possible (who knows if waiting will actually result in more value).

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Minny truly capitalized on how effing dumb the Lakers are lol. We would have gladly dealt directly with LA and send them a 2nd or two with NAW and Conley... they loved DLo so much tho. When in doubt blame the Lakers.

All in all I think we end up okay. First minny pick is still Key so that is solid. They likely can't keep all their guys so will lose NAW or someone else. Mike seems to be slowing way down now. We increased our chances at a top 4 pick and ended with a consolation prize but the odds can't be ignored even if they didn't hit imo.

Here's how I would score it depending on how the Lakers pick ends up:

- If we get pick 5-10, then the trade is still awesome.
-If we get pick 10-15, it's still good.
- 15-20, then it's probably a wash,
-20-30 and we lost the trade.
- 0-4 then the trade was a disaster.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Part of this decision making is the flattened odds as well. That's kind of the whole idea behind tank + Lauri. However good or bad you thought the Jazz were, it's kind of understood that Laui will cost us some lotto balls but in a lot of cases it's worth it to a better roster with less lotto odds. I think that is a more legit way of thinking than burning lotto balls to ensure the most value in a trade possible (who knows if waiting will actually result in more value).

Right. Everyone here knows I'm not a front office glazer... but I do agree with the thought process of most of their moves the last 2.5 years. If we had gotten lucky like Atlanta or Houston did in the 2024 draft and landed Castle or in the 2023 draft and landed Wemby, then the front office starts to look a lot smarter. In reality it would just mean they were luckier. If we get the "luck event" we need then we are in an amazing place to capitalize. If we don't then the tanking deniers will look "smart" I guess.

And "luck event" doesn't have to be getting into the top 3 of the draft. It could be drafting the Giannis in the middle of the draft or something like that. We have given ourselves decent-ish odds at landing top 4 and given ourselves extra bites at the apple with additional picks. There is some skill to finding the next Giannis, SGA, Donny, Haliburton etc. but there is also a **** ton of dumb luck.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Here's how I would score it depending on how the Lakers pick ends up:

- If we get pick 5-10, then the trade is still awesome.
-If we get pick 10-15, it's still good.
- 15-20, then it's probably a wash,
-20-30 and we lost the trade.
- 0-4 then the trade was a disaster.

I think it depends on who you end up with less than where the pick lands but I understand your thinking here. I'm not as concerned about the seconds we gave up because I think our hands were just tied a bit and we have so many extra picks already. I think its the chances we didn't take to go ahead and get second round picks that kind of bothers me (the THT trade, John Collins trade and maybe the Bogey/KO swap).

Minny made out like bandits in that trade but I am not sure we ended up hurting our 23/25 picks all that much with Conley starting to show his age and now being extended. The big benefit of keeping the pick and having a decent shot (kinda) at Wemby/Miller/Scoot(?) was worth the trade.

 

[KqWIN]

Right. Everyone here knows I'm not a front office glazer... but I do agree with the thought process of most of their moves the last 2.5 years. If we had gotten lucky like Atlanta or Houston did in the 2024 draft and landed Castle or in the 2023 draft and landed Wemby, then the front office starts to look a lot smarter. In reality it would just mean they were luckier. If we get the "luck event" we need then we are in an amazing place to capitalize. If we don't then the tanking deniers will look "smart" I guess.

And "luck event" doesn't have to be getting into the top 3 of the draft. It could be drafting the Giannis in the middle of the draft or something like that. We have given ourselves decent-ish odds at landing top 4 and given ourselves extra bites at the apple with additional picks. There is some skill to finding the next Giannis, SGA, Donny, Haliburton etc. but there is also a **** ton of dumb luck.

I still think they’ve been slow. It shouldn’t have taken two whole years to get to where we are. I think that is a result of DA’s greed, but I’m sure his greed also works out for us sometimes. The first year…I guess I’d have to know if trades were available but if they were it was a mistake to not do them in the offseason, but I can acknowledge that it is easier said than done. So many franchises ima similarish spot with similarish results. There’s often a year in between blowing it up and truly tanking, it doesn’t happen immediately. Two was probably slow…but honestly I’m not sure harm has been done. We got the same guy we would have had we tanked harder and I’d rather have 25 and 26 as tanks years thank 24 and 25.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I still think they’ve been slow. It shouldn’t have taken two whole years to get to where we are. I think that is a result of DA’s greed, but I’m sure his greed also works out for us sometimes. The first year…I guess I’d have to know if trades were available but if they were it was a mistake to not do them in the offseason, but I can acknowledge that it is easier said than done. So many franchises ima similarish spot with similarish results. There’s often a year in between blowing it up and truly tanking, it doesn’t happen immediately. Two was probably slow…but honestly I’m not sure harm has been done. We got the same guy we would have had we tanked harder and I’d rather have 25 and 26 as tanks years thank 24 and 25.

This is where I've been accused of being a homer on the twitters. Last year I think they looked at the draft and were like "don't care" at least through the summer and thought they could do some Lauri magic on John Collins and set themselves up for a big trade or something to avoid a tank. Like you said the cost was kinda whatevs.

The issue they need to avoid is the narrative here as most of the fanbase is like "we've been tanking for 2 years already... wen rebuild ova?". In reality we have this year started the tank and almost surely going to tank next year. If we land Cooper I can see DA saying "eff it we ball" making a mid tier trade and heading face first into the play-in morass. I think its unlikely but maybe like a 5% chance. I think the troops could get restless and cause Ryan to get DA to hit the gas even without landing Cooper... and that would be kinda the "mid-est" timeline.

I think if we do the right thing for two years we should be good... even if it costs us Lauri at some point.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I don't think we can out tank Washington. They are off to this record with Poole having a career best year.

 

[KqWIN]

John Collins would help the Bulls so much. Jalen Smith hasn’t been as good as last year, and Collins can play with both Vuc and Smith. They have no pressure or athleticism at the rim. The long awaited Lonzo-Collins trade could happen.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Trust the Process in Philly?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Raptors finally get a win.

 

[KqWIN]

I’m shocked that the Raptors didn’t find a way to blow another lead.

 

[KqWIN]

Trust the Process in Philly?

McCain is the only guy delivering on that roster. I bet no one saw that coming.

 

[jazznik]

Raptors finally get a win.

I watched the game: the Raptors actually played very hard and really wanted that win. They are simply missing two of their best players: once they return Toronto will start winning and pulls away from the Jazz. They have a much more experienced and talented team.

Now, Washington is in a totally different league. They are so bad that I simply do not see how the Jazz can outtank them.