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2024-2025 Tank Race

Man NO really in a danger zone right now of where I could see them flipping to full tank mode. Zion likely out at least 4-6 weeks and never a guarantee after that. Murray comes back in a 2-4 weeks same time as Herb/CJ/Hawkins but they are already 3 games outside the play in. They go 1-9 or 2-8 over that stretch and I think they just pack it up at that point. 7-8 games out of the play in in the west feels like a death sentence.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Man NO really in a danger zone right now of where I could see them flipping to full tank mode. Zion likely out at least 4-6 weeks and never a guarantee after that. Murray comes back in a 2-4 weeks same time as Herb/CJ/Hawkins but they are already 3 games outside the play in. They go 1-9 or 2-8 over that stretch and I think they just pack it up at that point. 7-8 games out of the play in in the west feels like a death sentence.
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They have some stuff going on with their salary that I'm not 100% clear on. They are currently projected to be a tax team, which they have never been, but apparently Murray has some unlikely incentives that will help them?
 
NUMBERICA said:
When you’re on the margins, one win (for a tanker) or one loss (for a contender) can swing your place in the standings pretty wildly. That Spurs win took the Jazz from stand-alone worst record to 3rd worst.

No ****ing around this year. Please.
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I hope the last game isn’t a sign of what’s ahead. Although Danny and Zanik must have told Hardy this season is about developing and evaluating our young players and not about winning, Hardy still used his veteran players as much as he could in the fourth quarter, trying to win the game.
 
I’m just glad Utah is in the west. Feels like the eastern conference basement dwellers might be able to scrape a few more wins just based on how bad that conference is outside of a few teams.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
If I had to guess the final standings for worst record I would go:

1. Washington
2. Utah
3. Toronto
4. Brooklyn
5. Portland
6. Chicago
7. DET
8. SAS
9. Not a team I'm currently considering a tanking team

Charlotte drops out of the tank race if healthy and goes for a play in
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Detroit and SA dont belong there imo. Pels should definitely be below them, and I would also put Hawks behind those two... as neither team can play a lick of defense. Here are some numbers to indicate that:
  • Pels rank 29th defensively and 22nd offensively (27th in netRtg) with the 7th easiest schedule based on SoS thus far. Add in the recent injury news and it doesnt look good.
  • Hawks rank 27th defensively and 18th offensively (24th in netRtg) but they have had the 5th easiest SoS in the league thus far and have had a 7-4 home-away advantage
  • Pistons rank 14th defensively and 23rd offensivel (19th in netRtg), and have played the 10th most difficult SoS
  • Spurs rank 8th defensively and 24th offensively (17th in netRtg) and have had the 13th most difficult SoS
Just because Pistons and Spurs own their picks doesnt mean they want to be bad any more than the Hawks who dont own theirs. I would say neither is trying to tank and both would rather see their #1 picks reach their first playoffs. Spurs may run into West being so tough that they blow it up at some point, but Pistons are gonna be in the mix to make the play-in just as much as the Hawks, and are just simply a better team at least right now. Snyder is also riding Trae again to break his career high in mpg. Last season he also did that and as a result Trae got injured and missed 28 games.
 
HermanG said:
Detroit and SA dont belong there imo. Pels should definitely be below them, and I would also put Hawks behind those two... as neither team can play a lick of defense. Here are some numbers to indicate that:
  • Pels rank 29th defensively and 22nd offensively (27th in netRtg) with the 7th easiest schedule based on SoS thus far. Add in the recent injury news and it doesnt look good.
  • Hawks rank 27th defensively and 18th offensively (24th in netRtg) but they have had the 5th easiest SoS in the league thus far and have had a 7-4 home-away advantage
  • Pistons rank 14th defensively and 23rd offensivel (19th in netRtg), and have played the 10th most difficult SoS
  • Spurs rank 8th defensively and 24th offensively (17th in netRtg) and have had the 13th most difficult SoS
Just because Pistons and Spurs own their picks doesnt mean they want to be bad any more than the Hawks who dont own theirs. I would say neither is trying to tank and both would rather see their #1 picks reach their first playoffs. Spurs may run into West being so tough that they blow it up at some point, but Pistons are gonna be in the mix to make the play-in just as much as the Hawks, and are just simply a better team at least right now. Snyder is also riding Trae again to break his career high in mpg. Last season he also did that and as a result Trae got injured and missed 28 games.
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If we get to the trade deadline and San Antonio is out of the play in race (strong possibility given how difficult the West is), I have no doubt they will do shady stuff to ensure as high of a draft pick as possible. I do think Detroit wants to be as good as possible this year and has a better chance of being in the Play In race, so I could see them being better than my projections. The Pelicans look like the most likely team to join the tanking race, but they will eventually get healthier and should be much better than they are currently once that happens. Atlanta might not be able to help themselves from being bad, agreed. I was definitely eyeing that pick when we were talking about a potential Lauri to SAS trade. I do think it makes a difference, especially at the end of the year, when teams have no reason to be bad vs teams that are actively trying to increase their lottery odds.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
If we get to the trade deadline and San Antonio is out of the play in race (strong possibility given how difficult the West is), I have no doubt they will do shady stuff to ensure as high of a draft pick as possible. I do think Detroit wants to be as good as possible this year and has a better chance of being in the Play In race, so I could see them being better than my projections. The Pelicans look like the most likely team to join the tanking race, but they will eventually get healthier and should be much better than they are currently once that happens. Atlanta might not be able to help themselves from being bad, agreed. I was definitely eyeing that pick when we were talking about a potential Lauri to SAS trade. I do think it makes a difference, especially at the end of the year, when teams have no reason to be bad vs teams that are actively trying to increase their lottery odds.
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I think Pels main issue (as @Handlogten's Heros already mentioned) is that once they fall far enough behind, its really hard imagining them climbing back up from that hole. I think if they get fully healthy, they are like a .600 team at best and 6-4 average stretches aint gonna cover ground fast enough if they fall to something like -12 wins before Zion gets back. And that is assuming they wont suffer futher injuries.

I think the writing is on the wall for the Pels already. Only way I see them surviving into the play-in is if they exceed expectations during this stretch when Zion is out.
 
HermanG said:
I think Pels main issue (as @Handlogten's Heros already mentioned) is that once they fall far enough behind, its really hard imagining them climbing back up from that hole. I think if they get fully healthy, they are like a .600 team at best and 6-4 average stretches aint gonna cover ground fast enough if they fall to something like -12 wins before Zion gets back. And that is assuming they wont suffer futher injuries.

I think the writing is on the wall for the Pels already. Only way I see them surviving into the play-in is if they exceed expectations during this stretch when Zion is out.
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I could see that happening. I still don't see them as a threat to us, but could definitely fall below the next group, we'll see. The team I'm most surprised at right now is LAC, I thought they would be terrible, but have done ok without Kawhi so far.

I will be reevaluating my list of teams at 20 games in and might make adjustments at that time.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I could see that happening. I still don't see them as a threat to us, but could definitely fall below the next group, we'll see. The team I'm most surprised at right now is LAC, I thought they would be terrible, but have done ok without Kawhi so far.

I will be reevaluating my list of teams at 20 games in and might make adjustments at that time.
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Sir this is serious business. Everyone is a threat.
 
How is the East so bad every year? The 3-seed is a .500 team and they have four three teams with two wins. It seems mathematically impossible.

Anyway, let’s keep losing please.
 
I told y’all that these teams with extreme depth aren’t the massive tankers you thought they were. Teams that have 9-10 real NBA players are going to win some games. Trades are bound to happen, but in the meantime teams like POR, BKN, DET etc can be competitive on any given night.
 
At some point Philly may actually enter the tank race and be dirty about it as they keep their pick if it lands top 6.

Obviously we are not even close to that and climbing out of East cellar shouldnt be too tough.. but their season has gone pretty far off the rails thus far and if they keep losing even with Embiid back then I could see them skipping this year to fortify their nearby and long term future. They have all 3 of Embiid, George and Maxey under contract for the next 4 years so they have plenty of window left even if they deem they arent contenders this year.
 
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