Then this entire season is besides the point if we MUST land Flagg/Harper, because statistically we are not getting them regardless of our record (27% chances in the best case scenario). The goal of tanking is not getting for sure 1st or 2nd pick but significantly improving your chances to end up with a higher pick. Having 1st vs 5th odds does exactly that.
2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
If we don't get a top 2 pick, the season absolutely was a waste.
The goal is maximizing the odds that the season was not a waste.
The goal is maximizing the odds that the season was not a waste.
Brsn
Well-Known Member
There's a lot of depth in this upcoming draft. I'd rather have a top 7 pick in it than compete for a play in spot and forfeit the pick to OKC. That being said I really would like our pick to be at least top 3.
I somewhat agree with the sentiment, but I don't think you can say anything like that definitively.
It will feel like a setback and be more difficult in building a championship roster if we don't draft a franchise talent in this draft. Right now it looks like there are two players who have a decent chance of that type of impact (Harper and Flagg) although I wouldn't quibble with anyone who though their was 3 (Kasparas). There are potentially a few more, but the likelihood is much less.
There is no certainty with any of this and we are just dealing with probabilities that if anybody tried to exactly quantify would just be guessing. We won't really know if the tank was a success for at least 6 months to years later.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Ehh, I view 3-5 in this class as pretty bad. And 6-10 are just fine. 11-20 is good, but it's top 2 pick or bust.
Don't break out that fancy word "probability" with this dude. He's in another thread talking about "randomness" and "luck" like he's a 6th grader.
Why people are so sure that the only franchise players in this draft will be found in the top2? Historically, it is simply wrong and most of the franchise players in each draft are found OUTSIDE of top 2. That is, the conventional wisdom about who will be the best is typically wrong (with the exception of rare cases like Wemby or LeBron). I want to remind anyone that Jordan was drafted 3rd. And here it is for more recent drafts:
2015 - Towns and Russel (1-2) vs. Porzingis (4) and Booker (14)
2016 - Simmons and Ingram (1-2) vs. Brown (3), Sabonis (11), Siakam (27)
2017 - Fultz and Lonzo Ball (1-2) vs. Tatum (3), Fox (5), Mitchell (13)
2018 - Ayton and Bagley (1-2) vs. Doncic (3), Young (5), SGA (11), Brunson (33)
2019 - Zion and Morant (1-2) vs Garland (5)
2020 - Edwards and Wiseman (1-2) vs LaMelo Ball (3), Haliburton (12), Maxey (21)
What makes you think that the 2025 draft will be any different?
2015 - Towns and Russel (1-2) vs. Porzingis (4) and Booker (14)
2016 - Simmons and Ingram (1-2) vs. Brown (3), Sabonis (11), Siakam (27)
2017 - Fultz and Lonzo Ball (1-2) vs. Tatum (3), Fox (5), Mitchell (13)
2018 - Ayton and Bagley (1-2) vs. Doncic (3), Young (5), SGA (11), Brunson (33)
2019 - Zion and Morant (1-2) vs Garland (5)
2020 - Edwards and Wiseman (1-2) vs LaMelo Ball (3), Haliburton (12), Maxey (21)
What makes you think that the 2025 draft will be any different?
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Obviously there's a chance and one or two probably will, but each individual player is unlikely so we probably won't get a game changing player after 2.
Ainge hasn't really shown any elite drafting skills either these last few years to make anyone confident that he can find a star even in a perceived lower tier.
But what makes you think that Flagg and Harper will be game-changing players? Historically, GMs were able to correctly identify and grab game-changing players only when those teenage prospects had the outrageous athleticism combined with already developed skills. Zion, Morant, and Edwards in the drafts above, Wemby, LeBron, Griffin, Shaq in other drafts. But Flagg and Harper are not athletic freaks. They could easily end up being just nice players like Ingram.
underdog
Well-Known Member
I find a lot of your posts here quite hilarious. This is one of them.
Hopes and Expectations for Tanking | Reality of Tanking |
| We'll (easily enough) be able to find a franchise player (MVP candidate, 1st Team All Pro, or at least someone better than either Mitchell or Gobert) -- someone who virtually single-handedly can make us a contender year after year | As of now, over the past 15 years it seems that only 3 players (at best) drafted #1 appear fit this bill (Wemby, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards). So 20% odds (or less) of getting the kind of player we need with a #1 pick. (And of course the odds go down if the picks are lower.) |
| Tanking is easy -- just follow the pattern of previous tankers. Go into tanking quickly and come out of it quickly. | At least 5 teams, maybe more, are serious tanking competitors this year. Large numbers of fans have been turned off by the tanking strategy. Tanking (unless we get rather lucky) looks increasingly like a many-year process. |
| 2025 draft is one of the best in recent history. Franchise players can easily be had with any of at least the top 5 or 6 picks | As of nearly midway through the college season, it looks like that number is down to two, and neither of those have close to the generational potential that Wemby did. |
| Just get rid of all our good players and get the coaching staff on board with the tanking task. | We have Ainge and Hardy. The trading market doesn't work as easily as we wish it did. Even if we trade our unwanted veterans, unwanted veterans are likely coming back (we can't just release everyone, like we do with Westbrook). We signed three of the worst veterans available (by statistical impact) in the offseason and people are still complaining that they're preventing us from losing enough. |
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
I am not extremely confident that Harper or Flagg become game changing players, I simply think it's much more likely that they'll be game changers than anyone else in this draft. Harper has prime Harden potential if he becomes an elite shooter and Flagg can probably be a bit better than Tatum if he becomes a great shooter.
And I agree. But because there is so much uncertainty in the draft it is both good to maximize the chances of getting the 1-2 pick and/or any other high pick. The mindset should not be Flagg/Harper or nothing.
This is easy to address. We can easily do what the Wizards are doing: shove all of the vets to the bench and play our young players huge minutes as starters. The starting lineup of Kessler-Flip-Lauri-Brice-Keyonte with Cody and Collier playing major minutes off the bench will get you very, very far.
homeytennis
Well-Known Member
The Wiz tonight have eight players out. That ladies and gentlemen is a world class tank.
homeytennis
Well-Known Member
The Jazz have recalled Cody from the Stars. The tank should be in good hands.
Handlogten's Heros
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Now do the other team building strategies. What exactly is the alternative? We are both doing the tank and middle build by holding other teams picks. If we opt to build through FA and trades we have the necessary fodder to do that. The tank is one component of what we opted to do. None of the strategies have high success rates. Even trading for stars has some catastrophic consequences and a low success rate.
Its likely a multi-year endeavor though as we haven't hit on the drafted star with our mid/late lotto or other picks (most likely) and haven't gotten the luck of jumping into the top 4 to have a better shot at drafting the star. At this point we have to likely sell off part of the infrastructure that would make it a quick rebuild.
but my okc model
Every direction is hard, winning a championship is extremely difficult and requires a tremendous amount of luck regardless. But one of the reasons I think people overrate tanking is because it's easy to draw out that direct path that @idiot outlined. So easy to say, "tank->draft->superstar->championship". Other paths may be less clear, but that doesn't mean less likely or less effective. Not saying specifically, but I don't think people really stop and consider how unlikely the tanking plan is to work despite the apparent simplicity of it. For example, when we had Mitchell and Gobert....it's much easier to just say "tank and then we draft those players again" instead of building around the two superstars we already had and hitting on an unlikely move to get us to the destination.
Tanking is fine, it's definitely better than half tanking or whatever the hell we were doing the past two years. It's still highly overrated both in it's ease of execution and effectiveness IMO. There's a great deal of smugness about tanking=king that rubs me the wrong way.
The other problem with free agency and trades is that real stars virtually never get traded before they’re 30 and star players will never be in play to sign with the Jazz before they’re 30 also. If we want to build something enduring, the draft is the only route we have. At least at this point. IMO.