What about the Suns for god’s sake?
Culture matters. I’m not concerned about that matter with our group.
2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
Culture matters. I’m not concerned about that matter with our group.
Hornets just can't stay healthy. Not that they would be amazing, but if they had a full season of health from Williams/Miller/Ball/Bridges/Mann/Williams, they wouldn't be an awful awful team.
I would say that's just a result of injuries and low talent to begin with....but it's kind of unfair to argue from my side. We can very easily find examples of "bad culture" teams that ended up just fine, but we can never really know a "bad culture" team that would have been good with a "good culture". I guess part of the reason why I say it doesn't matter is because what even is "losing" or "winning" culture? Like when Hardy first got here and we were winning with vets, is that a winning culture? And how can we really tell what environment is best for player development? Maybe I'm just talking out of my *** here, but I think an environment with ample opportunity for young players is highly preferred for development and I'd say coaches feel the same way.
All of this just leads me to conclude that good culture is more or less the same thing as having good players. Having the talented players comes first and is what is most important. This is the same for the coach. Obviously you need a good coach, but I don't think a mandated tank is a poor reflection of Hardy as a coach and I don't think it means he can't develop players the way he should be able to. I have my own concerns about our developmental program, but that is more of a concern with Hardy's own ability as a defensive coach and the talent evaluation in the FO. If we had good talent, it wouldn't matter that we are stinking it up right now. For example, we'd completely forget about it if we got Cooper Flagg and he's as good as we think.
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but if we dont win the #1 pick we should hope that its either Washington or Charlotte that wins it.
Tankathon says our chances of getting #2 or #3 are lower than #1, but that is because it discounts the scenarios where we have already won an earlier draw. In reality our chances go up every draw we dont win. How much depends on who wins the earlier draw and how many lottery balls they had.
Here is an comparison for the best and worst odds we could have for the third draw:
Worst is that teams #13 and #14 win the first two draws. In that case we have pretty much the same 14% odds to win the 3rd draw.
Best odds come if Washington and Charlotte get the first two picks. In that case 28% of the lotto balls are gone and our share of the remaining balls is 19.4%.
I will also add a pre-emptive "duh" to any response like "Id rather have the Jazz pick #1". Not the point.
Tankathon says our chances of getting #2 or #3 are lower than #1, but that is because it discounts the scenarios where we have already won an earlier draw. In reality our chances go up every draw we dont win. How much depends on who wins the earlier draw and how many lottery balls they had.
Here is an comparison for the best and worst odds we could have for the third draw:
Worst is that teams #13 and #14 win the first two draws. In that case we have pretty much the same 14% odds to win the 3rd draw.
Best odds come if Washington and Charlotte get the first two picks. In that case 28% of the lotto balls are gone and our share of the remaining balls is 19.4%.
I will also add a pre-emptive "duh" to any response like "Id rather have the Jazz pick #1". Not the point.
The Jazz Wonderbra
Well-Known Member
Tankathon shows us as having the 2nd hardest remaining SOS. Meanwhile, the Wizards have the 5th easiest SOS.
They still have to play:
Utah
76rs twice
Chicago
Brooklyn
Toronto
And the sinking Heat twice
With the Wizards coming in to form as of late and a really easy schedule, I think a 1st.. ehem... last place finish could be in the cards.
I was bullish on the tank to begin the season. But this is beyond what I expected. The Jazz have never made and kept a top 1 or 2 pick. May the year be 2025 followed by another in 2026.
They still have to play:
Utah
76rs twice
Chicago
Brooklyn
Toronto
And the sinking Heat twice
With the Wizards coming in to form as of late and a really easy schedule, I think a 1st.. ehem... last place finish could be in the cards.
I was bullish on the tank to begin the season. But this is beyond what I expected. The Jazz have never made and kept a top 1 or 2 pick. May the year be 2025 followed by another in 2026.
fishonjazz
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Plus Charlotte or Washington getting the first pick hurts their tank for next year.
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Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
I am sure Ryan Smith appreciates you taking those fines for him.
Douchebag K
Well-Known Member
Pelicans looking like a chance to beat Min
Win-win.
More than that, it would be like hitting a hole in one and also getting a car.
Zion usually plays well vs Gobert
It means we aren't entirely pathetic
Jazz's next 5 games: BOS, CLE, MEM, HOU, DEN...all easy Ls. That'll put us at 16-59. Then we have HOU, OKC, ATL, IND, MIN remaining, all playoff teams with a desire to win. That should put us at 16-64.
The other two games are @CHA and POR, who could maybe stick a win on us. Let's say we split those and finish 17-65.
The other two games are @CHA and POR, who could maybe stick a win on us. Let's say we split those and finish 17-65.
The most likely outcome for both the worst and second-worst records is to get the 5th pick (the worst record has higher odds than second-worst because their floor is 6th).
I think it’s actually bad to be last. If there is any chance whatsoever that these things are rigged (and that the league can’t LIKE tanking), then being last might be something of a curse without a corresponding stronger upside.
Douchebag K
Well-Known Member
yeah i've thought for a while it'll be about 17 which really is perfect v happy
It would be interesting to see someone do a statistical analysis of some sort on how the lottery has panned out over the years. Wonder if there’s a way to show if there’s a true random statistical distribution or if there’s evidence that thumbs have tipped the scales at times.
The sample sizes are too small (you’re looking at a sample of ~30). But it’s also complicated because it can’t take into effect lots and lots of noisy data. I’m going to make a larger post about this later. I think too often people have a very all-or-nothing view of this, like the league is sitting in Secaucus planning every point of every game. It’s don’t believe anything is tightly controlled, but there are things that can have varying level of influence. I believe there are certain outcomes that can be problematic, and the league can pull certain levers to prevent, or at least reduce risk of, certain outcomes. Thus think the false dichotomy of “if there’s not evidence that every single thing is rigged in its entirety, then no undue influence happens anywhere” is a bit of a straw man and silly.
Lottery odds were flattened in 2019.
Ever since, 3 teams that have finished 2nd worst or tied have gotten the 1st pick 3 times.
That’s 3/6, or a 50/50 odd of winning.
So based off of that, 2nd worst is where I wanna be.
Ever since, 3 teams that have finished 2nd worst or tied have gotten the 1st pick 3 times.
That’s 3/6, or a 50/50 odd of winning.
So based off of that, 2nd worst is where I wanna be.