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5 Reasons Trump Will Win - Michael Moore

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He posted them on his blog:

https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/


His points are summarised below by another news outlet:


1. Midwest maths

Calling it "our Rust Belt Brexit" Moore said Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Previously in favour of the Democrats, these have turned pro-Republic in recent years.

He warns what will happen in the UK will happen in the US with people felt abandoned by (Democrat) policies which helped lead to job losses and created a protectionist-type outlook. These people feel "screwed over" and while working classes might not agree with him they will end up voting for him because they are simply angry.

According to Moore, all Trump needs to win is 64 simple votes from this "rust belt" which will carry him over the line.

2. Angry white men

Moore warns the 240-year dominance of the US is coming to an end and the "endangered white male" is not happy about it.

Trump's argument fearmongering about the "Feminazi" is winning and the endangered white male will not put up with "a woman bossing us around" after having eight years of being told what to do by a black man.

"After that it'll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders!," he writes. "You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a ****** hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop."

3. The Hillary problem

Moore writes Clinton's biggest problem is the fact she remains so unpopular, with 70 per cent of voters finding her untrustworthy.

He adds another problem is she represents the old way of politics "not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected".

Clinton, he maintains, remains massively unpopular with young people and if anything can get voters to turn up to the polls it will unfortunately be Trump.

4. The depressed Sanders vote

Polls show Sanders voters will pick Hillary but that isn't the problem according to Moore. What is, however, is the fact that the average Bernie backer will only be voting for her reluctantly and not convincing five of their mates to do the same thing.

He also reveals how Clinton's killing the youth vote and few are excited or willing to volunteer to support her campaign.

"Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her - and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary," Moore warns.

5. The Jesse Ventura effect

Moore writes the voting booth remains one of the few places where there are no security cameras and where people can create anarchy.

"You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything," Moore writes. "You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in mickey mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules."

He said it is because of this that millions will vote for Trump not because they like him but simply because they can and they feel disenfranchised and will wonder what a world with Trump will look like.

He warned this could happen after the "smart state of Minnesota" voted for ex-wrestler and governor Jesse Ventura in 1999.

"They didn't do this because they're stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual," Moore writes. "They did so just because they could."
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Don't think he'll win but pretty entertaining list.
I don't personally know a single person that is angry about a black man and worried about a woman being President. (In the context intended.)

I think all that is overblown and we are all just eager for competency in whatever package that comes.

It's simply unfortunate the options are so bleak. We should just call it what it is. Two ****ty choices.
 
Dr. Jones said:
Don't think he'll win but pretty entertaining list.
I don't personally know a single person that is angry about a black man and worried about a woman being President. (In the context intended.)

I think all that is overblown and we are all just eager for competency in whatever package that comes.

It's simply unfortunate the options are so bleak. We should just call it what it is. Two ****ty choices.
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Kinda like how ****ty pop rock music with a 3 chord loop seems to always make the loudest noise....



(blink 182 I'm looking at you)
 
I think Clinton's unpopularity could most definitely open the doors for a huge upset.

We just saw one.

Green's suspension kept th Cavs Alive and opened the door for that epic come back.

Likewise, Clinton's unpopularity, especially among young people, make it so democrats aren't very passionate about this election. In fact, I don't know of a single person excited about Clinton. Unlike Trump, who lights some peoples' worlds on fire.

This new Wikileaks report only makes Clinton and the DNC more unpopular.
 
Dr. Jones said:
Don't think he'll win but pretty entertaining list.
I don't personally know a single person that is angry about a black man and worried about a woman being President. (In the context intended.)

I think all that is overblown and we are all just eager for competency in whatever package that comes.

It's simply unfortunate the options are so bleak. We should just call it what it is. Two ****ty choices.
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Not sure anyone with half a brain would publicly admit this though... but in the confine of a voting booth who knows?
 
I worry about the future of both parties.

Let's call it what it is. The GOP is dead. It has splintered off and has no solid platform anymore. The only things repubs agree on is that Clinton cannot be president.

The DNC isn't that much better. Young people don't like Clinton. The DNC has turned a lot of people off with essentially guaranteeing Clinton the win.

So if the GOP loses, where does it go from here?
If it wins, yikes... Will we even have a country after 4 years of trump?

If the DNC wins? So what? Neither Clinton or Kaine will out the DNC out there for future generations to latch onto.

I really wish that the DNC had gone after a younger more progressive candidate. Or had given Bernie a realistic shot and then provided him with a young progressive VP.

As it stands, Clinton is essentially a republican lite and Kaine is an old white guy married to the banks.

Neither frontrunner for the GOP or DNC is setting themselves up well for the future.
 
The Thriller said:
I worry about the future of both parties.

Let's call it what it is. The GOP is dead. It has splintered off and has no solid platform anymore. The only things repubs agree on is that Clinton cannot be president.

The DNC isn't that much better. Young people don't like Clinton. The DNC has turned a lot of people off with essentially guaranteeing Clinton the win.

So if the GOP loses, where does it go from here?
If it wins, yikes... Will we even have a country after 4 years of trump?

If the DNC wins? So what? Neither Clinton or Kaine will out the DNC out there for future generations to latch onto.

I really wish that the DNC had gone after a younger more progressive candidate. Or had given Bernie a realistic shot and then provided him with a young progressive VP.

As it stands, Clinton is essentially a republican lite and Kaine is an old white guy married to the banks.

Neither frontrunner for the GOP or DNC is setting themselves up well for the future.
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I do not worry about the future of the parties one bit. If they go the way of the Whigs... good riddance.
 
♪alt13 said:
I do not worry about the future of the parties one bit. If they go the way of the Whigs... good riddance.
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That's because you don't understand the American system. We are not a parliamentary system. If one or both of our parties are unable to secure a majority of electoral college votes, bye bye democracy. The burden of finding a new president resides in the house. Where even more chaos and corruption ensue.

If we wanted to change our system and allow a simple majority to win the presidency, then you might see other 3rd parties gain traction.

But remember, we didn't want a European system. We wanted a different system. Hence, why the electoral college was created.

Seriously, if you didn't need 280ish electoral college votes and just needed a simple majority, I think the two parties would've melted down a long time ago.

That's why a vote for Johnson is a wasted vote.

If all he had to do was obtain a majority vote (but still fail to gain the electoral college threshold) he might have a chance.
 
The Thriller said:
That's because you don't understand the American system. We are not a parliamentary system. If one or both of our parties are unable to secure a majority of electoral college votes, bye bye democracy. The burden of finding a new president resides in the house. Where even more chaos and corruption ensue.

If we wanted to change our system and allow a simple majority to win the presidency, then you might see other 3rd parties gain traction.

But remember, we didn't want a European system. We wanted a different system. Hence, why the electoral college was created.

Seriously, if you didn't need 280ish electoral college votes and just needed a simple majority, I think the two parties would've melted down a long time ago.

That's why a vote for Johnson is a wasted vote.

If all he had to do was obtain a majority vote (but still fail to gain the electoral college threshold) he might have a chance.
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I'm certain that I understand it better than you do. The electoral college was created as a protection from democracy, not to ensure it. good job speaking in circles tho

Third parties can move the 2 parties platform. This has actually happened quite a bit. They can replace one of the parties, crazy rare.

Rather than waste my vote on Trump or Clinton I will vote third party. If enough people join me perhaps the dems move closer to the greens and rep move closer to the libertarians. Or perhaps the 2 parties continue down their current path and are eventually replaced.

Go ahead and waste your vote on the 2 parties that you are so disappointed with.
 
what's a "simple" majority? is it the same as a plurality? in which case, it's not really a majority at all, is it?
 
♪alt13 said:
I'm certain that I understand it better than you do. The electoral college was created as a protection from democracy, not to ensure it. good job speaking in circles tho

Third parties can move the 2 parties platform. This has actually happened quite a bit. They can replace one of the parties, crazy rare.

Rather than waste my vote on Trump or Clinton I will vote third party. If enough people join me perhaps the dems move closer to the greens and rep move closer to the libertarians. Or perhaps the 2 parties continue down their current path and are eventually replaced.

Go ahead and waste your vote on the 2 parties that you are so disappointed with.
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Lol. Libertarianism? Not realistic nor sustainable.

I'm not "so" disappointed with the DNC to vote 3rd party. I believe it just needs to have some adjustments made to it. I'm disappointed in the candidate but the platform is fine.

The GOP? Is a complete mess.

I think we are arguing about the types of democracy here. The electoral college helps to keep democracy moving. Does it guard against mob rule? Yes. Does it also encourage the country to solve elections via voting? Yes. If a candidate doesn't acquire the needed votes then the election will be decided by the house.

Is that what we really want?
 
moevillini said:
what's a "simple" majority? is it the same as a plurality? in which case, it's not really a majority at all, is it?
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Plurality means more than anyone else

Simple majority means enough to win but not a majority(50%+1)

Presidents win states by plurality but need a majority of electors.
 
moevillini said:
what's a "simple" majority? is it the same as a plurality? in which case, it's not really a majority at all, is it?
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The person with the highest votes wins the election.

Whereas, with the electoral college, you may receive the highest number of electoral college votes and still lose if the overall votes are spread out so much that no one candidate can achieve the 280ish necessary votes to win.

If this happens, then the election will be decided by the house.

Which is why, if you abolish this rule I believe it would help a 3rd party candidate.

Right now many won't vote 3rd party because they know that their candidate won't win the necessary votes for the electoral college. However, if they knew that all they had to do was split the vote enough to obtain a simple majority, then I think more might vote 3rd party Candidate.
 
Let's put it this way.

If Johnson takes enough votes away from trump and Clinton that neither can win the electoral college, then the house will decide who the next president will be.

Yikes

If that's the case then we might as well close up shop in this country. The House can't even agree on what color the sky is.
 
The Thriller said:
Lol. Libertarianism? Not realistic nor sustainable.

I'm not "so" disappointed with the DNC to vote 3rd party. I believe it just needs to have some adjustments made to it. I'm disappointed in the candidate but the platform is fine.

The GOP? Is a complete mess.

I think we are arguing about the types of democracy here. The electoral college helps to keep democracy moving. Does it guard against mob rule? Yes. Does it also encourage the country to solve elections via voting? Yes. If a candidate doesn't acquire the needed votes then the election will be decided by the house.

Is that what we really want?
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What about libertarianism is not realistic or sustainable. Be specific. Why should anyone take you seriously if you are unable to do so.

platform was the wrong word. Policy is a better one. The platform doesn't really matter except that it will keep you coming back to vote for a candidate that will betray that platform every chance they get.

agreed the gop is a complete mess

The election will be decided by a tiny minority of citizens in swing states. That's thanks to our system of electors. At least if the House picks the potus we may have a wake up call. Calling our system democracy is a stretch.
 
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