538 article on "alpha" players

[Ron Mexico]

Where did you get the 5.8 stat? I'd love to see how their CPM stat ended up last season.

My guess for your question is that projections would naturally trend toward the center of a range of projected value. So I'd guess that all projections would end up "flatter" than the actual results.

But I'm an English major, so I wouldn't listen to anything I have to say about advanced statistics.

Actually the number I saw was not the CPM looking at it again. Based on the numbers he is using though I would guess it was around there, but they did not share the numbers and I dont want to compile them myself.

I never actually understand a lot of these. Gobert CARMELO stat was 12.4, which is very very high but it is projected to be 9.5 next year and go down every year after that.