Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Let's say you throw all the money in the world at an economy and it only grows 1.8%. What does that mean? Buy gold, learn Chinese?
A question for the Econ guys on the board.......
- Thread starter Duck Rodgers
- Start date
Probably means, be patient young padawan.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
I think you mean Akon.
Fixed. Just for you, Ducky. Skip a couple minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc
PearlWatson
Well-Known Member
NAOS
Well-Known Member
It could mean any number of things. Economies only grow because of local practices that (a) conjure units of property and (b) establish the means by which units of property can be converted into flowing capital... to say nothing of the fact that in order for any of these things to result in 'growth' they have to be done in faith that current debts can be turned into future profits.
EDIT: in other words, the idea that 'money begets more money' is one of our society's greatest myths
EDIT: in other words, the idea that 'money begets more money' is one of our society's greatest myths
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A
Agoxlea
Guest
That GDP number actually might be deceptively low. Colder than usual weather for the time of year may have decreased construction, our defense spending was actually down a bit, and a number of other things where unusual so the state of the economy may be slightly better than the numbers suggested. Rising gas prices could cause problems with our improving economy, but I don't think these numbers necessarily mean we need to start worrying about the economy.
My opinion is courtesy of some economist that told me this on NPR, but I am majoring in Econ (and CS), and he convinced me enough that I'm at least willing to wait and look at the numbers next quarter. The dow closed today at a three year high, so investors aren't getting too worried yet.
My opinion is courtesy of some economist that told me this on NPR, but I am majoring in Econ (and CS), and he convinced me enough that I'm at least willing to wait and look at the numbers next quarter. The dow closed today at a three year high, so investors aren't getting too worried yet.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
They trapped themselves with inflation to help growth for a few quarters and now it's destroying growth. Growth was only .8% ex-inventory. Meaning next reporting date we may very well go negative. The Dow is only up .9% this year in real dollars. Gold, Silver, stocks, other currencies besides the dollar, and commodities in general are all going up for the same reason. So unless that reason changes, there is going to be anemic growth at best. And if they stop what they are doing, the whole thing collapses. I am very disturbed right now to say the least. I was giving them credit that they might be able to keep the game going for a few years. I don't think so anymore.
The current relationships between the asset classes/markets are not sustainable. Many charts, particularly viewed in multi-year time frames are parabolic which history shows is unsustainable with a track record of 100%. It is anybody's guess to the timing, but we are very close. The Bernanke is either a total fool or one cool customer with balls as big as church bells. The end result will be the public that is invested in the markets will suffer the most. As usual, they are neck deep into the asset classes most extended.
The Hussman analysis excludes Bernanke's new tool--paying interest on excess reserves. However, we don't know how it will work, if at all, or if it will bankrupt the Fed (on paper anyway).
With 96% of the variability explained by the curve, it's pretty damn hard to ignore the liquidity preference function. I, for one, will add credit to the notion by converting most or all my cash into c.d.'s or t-bills once rates go higher (a multiplier). To disregard the inflationistas is to disregard anecdotal common sense and all theory built to date. Hussman is making damn good points, as always. (BTW, I've been in the deflation camp for long enough)
I was beyond thrilled to see them work in references to the pipes and the sluices.
The genius of it, to my mind, was giving Hayek all the best lines. Really captures the allure of free market fundamentalism and you have to watch carefully to see the common problems of the Austrian method which are depicted accurately but more subtly.
I find this time period in economic history, if viewed objectively, as laying waste to most of the experts and their theories. Once the public gets their butts handed to them when the precious metals roll over and the dollar rebounds, logical people should put the last shovel of dirt on the Austrian grave. The illusion that any government official when put in the hot seat requiring them to make a decision and implement action is anything but a JMK follower should now be fully exposed.
Bernanke has gone from a total idiot who has no idea what he was doing at the bottom of the crisis to another level of idiot because what he did when he didn't know what he was doing is working so well that again he doesn't know what he is doing. This from the same crowd that killed him in 07 for not fighting the hounds of inflation, months away from the swiftest commodity reversal in generations. Of course the public continues the folly moving from tech stocks, to "flip that house", and now to buying gold and silver. And not just gold and silver ETF, but physical gold and silver because you know if you own physical gold and silver, you are much more sophisticated and the ETF schmucks.
But hey, I forgot this time the markets will work differently.
I...can't...really tell if I agree with this sentence or not. But I sure enjoyed reading it.
It's the fire and brimstone. It gets the souls going every time. Even Friedman succumbed to free market fundamentalism in his later years.
But let's get back to the real discussion: That video was ****ing awesome.