Anyone invested in the market

[Dr. Jones]

Write a y2k style disaster book and market it in California. Put a small prepper catalog with a link to a website in the back.

Waterocalypse?

lol.. sad but true.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

Just a suggestion.

Watch the junk bond market.

With oil plunging it will most assuredly affect (negatively) the junk bonds. That will almost assuredly foster in a stock market crash (of some substantial magnitude).

Possibly even worse news.. I just saw that Russia has offered (to OPEC) to help stabilize oil prices by limiting its amount of export in favor of domestic drilling.. and OPEC declined. Why? (Enter mere speculation)

OPEC is threatened by our (U.S.) own domestic drilling. We are now the largest oil producer on the planet. Yes, bigger than Saudi Arabia or Russia. What OPEC knows, though, is how much more expensive it is for us to tap shale oil and the cost of fracking. Might OPEC be bringing down oil prices to a sustainable level for its middle eastern countries and hold their for long enough to put U.S. operations out of business? (Along with a monumental collapse of employment and investments in the sector)

I'll leave it at that after just one more thing.

The United States has always been tough as nails militarily, but I feel that we the people are less resilient, more entitled, and far less determined than any time in our history. I feel like we are unwilling to be survivors, to be inconvenienced for a time for the sake of a brighter more sustainable future. Like fat hogs to the slaughter.

It's time to play hardball and time for us to come out from hiding behind our military and toughen up ourselves.

Why would trouble with junk bonds necessarily tank the stock market. It also kind of depends who is invested in the junk bonds, and what the crashing of the value of these bonds does to the balance sheets and bottom lines of these investors. If, say, banks are heavily invested in junk bonds, and it significant affects their capital and earnings (as was the case with the housing market crash), then, yes, we have a problem. If it's mostly individual investors investing in junk, or businesses/banks who are not overexposed in junk bond investments, then the market should be able to ride out the storm ok without too much adjustment.

In any case, economic doomsday scenarios are evergreen among certain types of people (e.g., those hawking gold purchases). While the do come true at times, they mostly don't (although when they do, holy hell it can be bad). If anyone really, truly knew what was going to happen in the market, this person would be wise to keep his/her mouth shut and move all of his/her assets so as to take advantage of the coming market trend. Why share with everybody else inside knowledge? What does it gain you? If other people were to move their assets in the same way, it would reduce to eliminate there gains, so they are better to keep quiet and invest, quietly. The fact that someone is all noisy about their inside knowledge of coming market trends is just about all the evidence you need that they don't really know what's going to happen. (The exception might be gadflies who are genuinely trying to act in the public interest and not to benefit from adverse, or predicted adverse, market events, such as people who would have warned about the coming crash in 2008 due to the unsustainable speculation in bundled home securities.)

The best strategy, is to buy and hold over the long term a diversified portfolio of socks, bonds, etc. The market ALWAYS rises in the long-term, though it might experience short-term ups and downs. If you have a long-term investment horizon, and you can stomach riding out the storm during market down turns (even buying up stocks and other assets at lower prices during the downturn), you'll be much better off over the long term than moving in and out of investments trying to predict, or reacting to, market events.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Why would trouble with junk bonds necessarily tank the stock market. It also kind of depends who is invested in the junk bonds, and what the crashing of the value of these bonds does to the balance sheets and bottom lines of these investors. If, say, banks are heavily invested in junk bonds, and it significant affects their capital and earnings (as was the case with the housing market crash), then, yes, we have a problem. If it's mostly individual investors investing in junk, or businesses/banks who are not overexposed in junk bond investments, then the market should be able to ride out the storm ok without too much adjustment.

In any case, economic doomsday scenarios are evergreen among certain types of people (e.g., those hawking gold purchases). While the do come true at times, they mostly don't (although when they do, holy hell it can be bad). If anyone really, truly knew what was going to happen in the market, this person would be wise to keep his/her mouth shut and move all of his/her assets so as to take advantage of the coming market trend. Why share with everybody else inside knowledge? What does it gain you? If other people were to move their assets in the same way, it would reduce to eliminate there gains, so they are better to keep quiet and invest, quietly. The fact that someone is all noisy about their inside knowledge of coming market trends is just about all the evidence you need that they don't really know what's going to happen. (The exception might be gadflies who are genuinely trying to act in the public interest and not to benefit from adverse, or predicted adverse, market events, such as people who would have warned about the coming crash in 2008 due to the unsustainable speculation in bundled home securities.)

The best strategy, is to buy and hold over the long term a diversified portfolio of socks, bonds, etc. The market ALWAYS rises in the long-term, though it might experience short-term ups and downs. If you have a long-term investment horizon, and you can stomach riding out the storm during market down turns (even buying up stocks and other assets at lower prices during the downturn), you'll be much better off over the long term than moving in and out of investments trying to predict, or reacting to, market events.

I don't wish to re-open the conversation and invest additional time on the topic.. but I was referring to junk bonds heavy in energy and invested by institutional investment firms (which at the time accounted for more than 20% of the overall pool).

And I agree with long-term vs. short-term. Most people I deal with are looking for much higher returns than the more conservative/safer long-term guys.

 

[fishonjazz]

What do you guys think about investing in marijuana related business and solar power related business?

I think those industries would be rising in the next 20 years

 

[Dr. Jones]

What do you guys think about investing in marijuana related business and solar power related business?

I think those industries would be rising in the next 20 years

The former sounds legit whereas the latter is a total crapshoot with so much competition, random government subsidy, and the race to other forms of sustainable energy.

 

[fishonjazz]

The former sounds legit whereas the latter is a total crapshoot with so much competition, random government subsidy, and the race to other forms of sustainable energy.

Thanks

 

[Dr. Jones]

The former sounds legit whereas the latter is a total crapshoot with so much competition, random government subsidy, and the race to other forms of sustainable energy.

I admit this is a trolling post. My apologies.

 

[Dr. Jones]

In truth about solar.. like anything else it can be a fantastic investment with some research. I don't invest in the market, I invest in my own projects I control completely. Eliminates the worry of someone else's mismanagement, insider dealing, etc.

Having said that, if I were going to invest in solar, I would look for companies with ample cash, grants from the government, a good credit rating, and recent stock price dips.

There has been some over-generalized bailing on energy stocks rather than calculated selling and some companies with great values have seen their prices drop without sound reason. Those.

 

[Carbon13]

I have a buddy who works R&D for a major solar company. He says its so far off not to hold your breath.

 

[franklin]

I have a buddy who works R&D for a major solar company. He says its so far off not to hold your breath.

Fitting post for your name.

 

[franklin]

What do you guys think about investing in marijuana related business and solar power related business?

I think those industries would be rising in the next 20 years

The farms in Washington are already oversupplied. Where else are you looking to make the money?

In truth about solar.. like anything else it can be a fantastic investment with some research. I don't invest in the market, I invest in my own projects I control completely. Eliminates the worry of someone else's mismanagement, insider dealing, etc.

Having said that, if I were going to invest in solar, I would look for companies with ample cash, grants from the government, a good credit rating, and recent stock price dips.

There has been some over-generalized bailing on energy stocks rather than calculated selling and some companies with great values have seen their prices drop without sound reason. Those.

Pretty much any solar project with a guarantee from the local utility can be a great investment if you own the project but I'd be shocked if an average investor could ever make a solid ror.

 

[Dr. Jones]

The farms in Washington are already oversupplied. Where else are you looking to make the money?



Pretty much any solar project with a guarantee from the local utility can be a great investment if you own the project but I'd be shocked if an average investor could ever make a solid ror.

Pretty much. I was referring simply to publicly traded stocks that feel mainly to the overreaction of oil prices. Some of it is warranted, but some good smaller companies took a hit and their insiders are scooping up the undervalued stock.

 

[Carbon13]

Fitting post for your name.

Fair enough, but he did say that. The efficiency of converting sunlight into energy is improving, but still not there and battery technology is way behind.

With that said, Im all for alternative energy advancement and if my buddy had said the opposite, i would have posted those comments instead. Unfortunately this is the reality of the situation as i understand it.

 

[Carbon13]

Pretty much. I was referring simply to publicly traded stocks that feel mainly to the overreaction of oil prices. Some of it is warranted, but some good smaller companies took a hit and their insiders are scooping up the undervalued stock.

I wouldnt mess around with it too much though. You really need to understand the companies management, debt ratio, and the difference between good and bad acreage. Its pretty complex, although im pretty risk averse.

 

[fishonjazz]

The farms in Washington are already oversupplied. Where else are you looking to make the money?

In the industry in general.
Companies that make bongs, pipes, vaporizers, grow lamps, etc.... not just the production of Mary J but the industry as a whole.

In 1995 California started allowing medical mj use..... 20 years later and there are at least 23 states that allow it.

A few years ago there were no states that allowed recreational use. Now there are at least 2. (I'm not sure about Alaska.... I had heard that they allow it but I'm not sure about it)

I figure in 20 years from now it will be legal almost everywhere (I believe the data from legalization in Colorado and washington will be favorable and other states will follow suit) and will take some of the market from big pharma. (why use an addicting, horrible, killer of a drug like oxy, percs, lortab, etc when marijuana is much safer in alot of peoples mind)

I would assume (I have no idea though) that right now investing in the marijuana industry would be relatively cheap but over the next 20 years the gains would be substantial.


Fwiw I have never invested in anything other than my 401k and have no idea how to buy stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc.... or how to sell them, when to buy or sell, or really any knowledge about investing at all

I just think marijuana use is going to continue to increase as it continues to become more mainstream, accepted, and understood. So I think the industry of marijuana and marijuana related paraphernalia and production would grow as well

 

[franklin]

Pretty much. I was referring simply to publicly traded stocks that feel mainly to the overreaction of oil prices. Some of it is warranted, but some good smaller companies took a hit and their insiders are scooping up the undervalued stock.

No doubt. Stocks with products in the eyes of the masses take extra large swings to the downside for some reason. FSLR in 2012 was prime example. Political risk scares investors. I don't follow the industry but I'm guessing the 40% decline since August is over oil.

I rarely trade, but when I do that is one of the strategies I use (see my Sea World call a few months back). It can work very, very well but you have to be very nimble in the environment because they're going to swing hard until the daily news coverage passes.

Fair enough, but he did say that. The efficiency of converting sunlight into energy is improving, but still not there and battery technology is way behind.

With that said, Im all for alternative energy advancement and if my buddy had said the opposite, i would have posted those comments instead. Unfortunately this is the reality of the situation as i understand it.

I don't disagree, just a side observation. I don't actually know what the 13 isotope is either.

In the industry in general.
Companies that make bongs, pipes, vaporizers, grow lamps, etc.... not just the production of Mary J but the industry as a whole.

...

...

I just think marijuana use is going to continue to increase as it continues to become more mainstream, accepted, and understood. So I think the industry of marijuana and marijuana related paraphernalia and production would grow as well

I disagree. The market is already saturated and mature. You could buy a grow lamp at a hardware store. You'd need to look at a new product like the vape stuff five years back IMO.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Again.. Good to have ya back Frank.

 

[fishonjazz]

No doubt. Stocks with products in the eyes of the masses take extra large swings to the downside for some reason. FSLR in 2012 was prime example. Political risk scares investors. I don't follow the industry but I'm guessing the 40% decline since August is over oil.

I rarely trade, but when I do that is one of the strategies I use (see my Sea World call a few months back). It can work very, very well but you have to be very nimble in the environment because they're going to swing hard until the daily news coverage passes.




I don't disagree, just a side observation. I don't actually know what the 13 isotope is either.




I disagree. The market is already saturated and mature. You could buy a grow lamp at a hardware store. You'd need to look at a new product like the vape stuff five years back IMO.

I don't think the market is mature.

2 out of 50 states being legalized tells me that there is alot of room for the market to grow. (about 48 states worth of room for growth)

 

[franklin]

I don't think the market is mature.

2 out of 50 states being legalized tells me that there is alot of room for the market to grow. (about 48 states worth of room for growth)

The product market is mature. It's hard to get high margins in a mature market.

I disagree that it's not saturated. A lot of people smoke weed. Sure, there are plenty who will start smoking (again) when it legal because they won't be getting fired for it, but I doubt that's going to skyrocket the % of people who toke. Maybe there's a study out of Colorado that says otherwise.

Maybe there will be an opportunity for some warehouse supplier type that monopolizes the market, kind of like a Home Depot for weed sellers.


And thanks PKM.

 

[Carbon13]

I don't disagree, just a side observation. I don't actually know what the 13 isotope is either.

UGH. But I do know what the 13 isotope is! SHEEPLE!!