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Central tank command : the official thread

Handlogten's Heros said:
Fine... then trade back and take a haul and get Musa.

I like him, but I've been hurt by other Euro guards that looked great in mixtapes... Mario specifically.

It's still Tank SZN
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Yeah, im for the tank bc the increased chance to get a top 3 pick. I just don't think there is much difference from 8 (which I dont see the Jazz falling below) and 14.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yeah, im for the tank bc the increased chance to get a top 3 pick. I just don't think there is much difference from 8 (which I dont see the Jazz falling below) and 14.
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I like the Bridges better than you I think. I also am not a fan of Knox. I like Musa (i think).

Not sure what to think of Sexton, but he'd be fun. I think we could fall anywhere from 6-8 with a properly executed tank... and that gives us a 10-20% shot at top 3. 6-7 is a bit of a stretch. I think Charlotte and BKN will win a bit more. Could see the Mavs rise a bit and the Lakers have no reason to tank so maybe they win 5 or 6 games where the other team does not care... though they are fading hard.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I like the Bridges better than you I think. I also am not a fan of Knox. I like Musa (i think).

Not sure what to think of Sexton, but he'd be fun. I think we could fall anywhere from 6-8 with a properly executed tank... and that gives us a 10-20% shot at top 3. 6-7 is a bit of a stretch. I think Charlotte and BKN will win a bit more. Could see the Mavs rise a bit and the Lakers have no reason to tank so maybe they win 5 or 6 games where the other team does not care... though they are fading hard.
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If Chicago keeps Mirotic I think they will be a .500 team going forward... forgot to mention them.

Phoenix has enough good players in Booker, Warren, and Chandler that they will have to do some shenanigans, but we know they are not above that.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Why the **** would the Pels do this?

Also, they can't trade their 1st as they traded last year's.

Jesus.
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The Pelicans really want to make the playoffs. The Pelicans need another wing. The Pelicans really want to dump Asik which they can't get on the court. The Pelicans want to keep Boogie and feel like success this year makes that happen.

This trade checks off every box. If the Pelicans make the playoffs, their 1st is around 18 or 19. Keeping Boogie is better than anything they can get for his expiring.

Can they really not trade their first? I thought you can't trade 1sts in back to back drafts before the drafts but you can after a draft.

And please don't be blasphemous.
 
LoPo said:
The Pelicans really want to make the playoffs. The Pelicans need another wing. The Pelicans really want to dump Asik which they can't get on the court. The Pelicans want to keep Boogie and feel like success this year makes that happen.

This trade checks off every box. If the Pelicans make the playoffs, their 1st is around 18 or 19. Keeping Boogie is better than anything they can get for his expiring.

Can they really not trade their first? I thought you can't trade 1sts in back to back drafts before the drafts but you can after a draft.

And please don't be blasphemous.
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They can trade their pick... for the 1000th time... the stepien rule only looks forward... so if they had traded their 2019 pick they can't trade 2018 or 2020... it does not care what they did last year.
 
Jazz need to tread water until Gobert comes back. They have to go .500 or better between now and Gobert returning.

Then they need to have their **** figured out and make a run. If we dont go .500 over the next 2-4 weeks then we should shut things down. At that point shut Gobert down for the season or at least until he is beyond 100% and focus on getting healthy and building a few more assets. We wont truly tank, we are too good for that especially if healthy.

Also if you really want to tank correctly and build the future around a 21 year old Mitchell and a future pick of an assumptive a 19/20 year old you would probably trade Gobert. I would not reccomend that but that is what you are are doing if you want to build around a future pick and Mitchell. Gobert will be 26 next year and the future pick will take 3-4+ years to be ready to compete in the playoffs. Gobert will be over 30. I doubt this is the direction the Jazz go.

It is much more likely and a better option to retool around Mitchell and Gobert. Frankly I think we could get a better asset that fits better if we trade a current player or two along with our pick for a good fit. Or just get healthy and move a player around for a better fit.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Jazz need to tread water until Gobert comes back. They have to go .500 or better between now and Gobert returning.

Then they need to have their **** figured out and make a run. If we dont go .500 over the next 2-4 weeks then we should shut things down. At that point shut Gobert down for the season or at least until he is beyond 100% and focus on getting healthy and building a few more assets. We wont truly tank, we are too good for that especially if healthy.

Also if you really want to tank correctly and build the future around a 21 year old Mitchell and a future pick of an assumptive a 19/20 year old you would probably trade Gobert. I would not reccomend that but that is what you are are doing if you want to build around a future pick and Mitchell. Gobert will be 26 next year and the future pick will take 3-4+ years to be ready to compete in the playoffs. Gobert will be over 30. I doubt this is the direction the Jazz go.

It is much more likely and a better option to retool around Mitchell and Gobert. Frankly I think we could get a better asset that fits better if we trade a current player or two along with our pick for a good fit. Or just get healthy and move a player around for a better fit.
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So the young guy could be rotation player the first year or two before they really hit their stride, but you could fill in around Gobert and DM with FA additions...

Or what if we parlayed the 7-8th pick and moved down to 14-15 and got a great piece in the process... a win now piece.

Or what if we actually got lucky and got a dude like Doncic or Young and they contribute immediately and are borderline AS in a year or two.

There is no upside in pushing for the 8th seed... selling off parts and acquiring future assets while improving the tank has some upside. Would have a year to integrate the pieces and significant cap space in 2019.

If it goes sideways you can move Gobert in a year or two if you have to.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
So the young guy could be rotation player the first year or two before they really hit their stride, but you could fill in around Gobert and DM with FA additions...

Or what if we parlayed the 7-8th pick and moved down to 14-15 and got a great piece in the process... a win now piece.

Or what if we actually got lucky and got a dude like Doncic or Young and they contribute immediately and are borderline AS in a year or two.

There is no upside in pushing for the 8th seed... selling off parts and acquiring future assets while improving the tank has some upside. Would have a year to integrate the pieces and significant cap space in 2019.

If it goes sideways you can move Gobert in a year or two if you have to.
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There is a benefit to making the playoffs. It give Mitchell experience and makes him more hungry. Plus it keeps many players happy and motivated as well as making us a better landing place for FAs. Plus there is a huge upside to me, I prefer watching a team win and try hard. Tanking is boring and we did that for years very unsuccessfully. Our 2 cornerstone pieces Gobert and DM were not the product of tanking. We can win and build a winning team that FAs are more likely to want to come to and keep trying to land great picks.

There is a benefit to a better draft pick and we could get lucky. But chances are wherever we pick the player is not going to be that good. The vast majority of picks are not all-stars and most are not even starters. Picks are a crap shoot even in the lottery.
 
Ron Mexico said:
There is a benefit to making the playoffs. It give Mitchell experience and makes him more hungry. Plus it keeps many players happy and motivated as well as making us a better landing place for FAs. Plus there is a huge upside to me, I prefer watching a team win and try hard. Tanking is boring and we did that for years very unsuccessfully. Our 2 cornerstone pieces Gobert and DM were not the product of tanking. We can win and build a winning team that FAs are more likely to want to come to and keep trying to land great picks.

There is a benefit to a better draft pick and we could get lucky. But chances are wherever we pick the player is not going to be that good. The vast majority of picks are not all-stars and most are not even starters. Picks are a crap shoot even in the lottery.
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All-Stars are by nature rare, but you have a much bigger chance at getting one earlier in the draft. I understand your thoughts and there are two sides to this, but I don't see the value of getting swept in the playoffs as bigger than the 10% chance at getting in the top 3. I also don't think the mix of Rudy/Favs/Rubio will click enough to get us to the playoffs. It will be an uphill battle for sure.

We can definitely get lucky later in the draft and that is why would should sell off win now pieces for late first rounders if those deals are available. More chances = better luck. I'm not in love with the 25-40 range players in this draft though, so if that doesn't work out then fine.

Not gonna kill anyone that doesn't want to tank but there is definite validity to the strategy and the worst place to be in the NBA is 12-14... GMs feel close enough to reach (I trust DL) and short cut the process to get mediocre. Not close enough to the top tier talent to string a couple good drafts in a row but you have a couple pieces that are good enough to get you to 35 wins... its a tough cycle to break.

I wish so much that we had a redo on the Rubio trade. He's a fine guy and tries really hard, but if we had that space and pick back I would feel so much better about the future.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
All-Stars are by nature rare, but you have a much bigger chance at getting one earlier in the draft. I understand your thoughts and there are two sides to this, but I don't see the value of getting swept in the playoffs as bigger than the 10% chance at getting in the top 3. I also don't think the mix of Rudy/Favs/Rubio will click enough to get us to the playoffs. It will be an uphill battle for sure.

We can definitely get lucky later in the draft and that is why would should sell off win now pieces for late first rounders if those deals are available. More chances = better luck. I'm not in love with the 25-40 range players in this draft though, so if that doesn't work out then fine.

Not gonna kill anyone that doesn't want to tank but there is definite validity to the strategy and the worst place to be in the NBA is 12-14... GMs feel close enough to reach (I trust DL) and short cut the process to get mediocre. Not close enough to the top tier talent to string a couple good drafts in a row but you have a couple pieces that are good enough to get you to 35 wins... its a tough cycle to break.

I wish so much that we had a redo on the Rubio trade. He's a fine guy and tries really hard, but if we had that space and pick back I would feel so much better about the future.
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I also think Exum is part of our future and gives us a big three to build around. I see the reasons for tanking but I would rather our team use our assets to build a good roster and not cast them aside for a small chance of winning. I am okay with trades (we need to always look at trades that benefit us) and if we end up worse this year but better next year, fine.
 
Quick exercise... DM and Rudy don't count for this exercise:

Our next all star level player will come to us

1- Through FA
2- Through trade
3- Through the draft

Let's just say for this exercise that trading up on draft night to acquire a guy is not through trade... that is through the draft. We think of D-Will as a guy we drafted... not a guy we traded for, even though it was a draft night deal.
 
I think both draft and trade. Likely scenario is for JJ and Favors to be traded at the deadline for picks. Maybe Hood, too. Jazz could combine picks to move up. Target might be a PF or combo forward.
Then I see Utah either using their cap space to go after a FA, or more likely, making a trade with a team wanting to rebuild or needing cap space. I could see Utah getting involved with Lakers or Cavs if LeBron and George want to team up in LA.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
They can trade their pick... for the 1000th time... the stepien rule only looks forward... so if they had traded their 2019 pick they can't trade 2018 or 2020... it does not care what they did last year.
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That's what I thought. Others were saying the NO pick wasn't available.
 
LoPo said:
That's what I thought. Others were saying the NO pick wasn't available.
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I know it wasn't you... was just answering the question.
 
Tank SZN.. 1 game out of 9th spot.

Make a couple tank trades and we are staring at 6-8
 
Genuine question for non-tank supporters:

We're currently sitting at #11. If we stand pat/improve, I envision us ending up anywhere from #11-15 (If not higher). Without Favors + depth (Jerebko, JJ, Thabo, Udoh, Burks) I believe we would likely be somewhere between #6-10.

I don't know this year's draft class well enough to know what kind of talent drop off there is from 5-10 to 11-15. But out of curiosity I glanced at some (potentially incorrect) statistics & did some (potentially incorrect) math.

We're currently 3 games up on #6 SAC (3.5 away from top 5)

According to these percentages, the odds of find a star by pick are:

6. 25%
7. 30%
8. 35%
9. 30%
10. 35%

11. 15%
12. 5%
13. 20%
14. 25%
15. 10%


I didn't look into the study closely enough to know what the qualifications were/etc but if these statistics are valid (& my math is correct), on average, the chances of finding a "star" are 31% when drafting #6-10. When drafting #11-15, it's an avg of 15. So, theoretically, the difference between finding that 3rd piece is +16% when drafting #6-10 vs #11-15.

The information may not be legit, my question is if people continuing to push for the playoffs believe that we have anywhere near a 16% chance of winning a title this year? Or if they consider it irrelevant.

I'm not attempting to attack anyone's opinion but the only justification I can see for not structuring this year's roster (while retaining the long-term core) to produce the highest potential draft pick is having immense faith in DL finding a star regardless of draft position & the belief that the possible playoff experience is essential to re-establishing a "winning culture". Curious what people think.
 
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today's tankathon.

knicks vs Mavs
hawks vs lakers
thunder vs suns
spurs vs blazers
jazz vs heat

for maximum sustained tank teams underlined and in bold need to win. I think we need to continue to slide into that top 5 range.
 
karl malone said:
Genuine question for non-tank supporters:

We're currently sitting at #11. If we stand pat/improve, I envision us ending up anywhere from #11-15 (If not higher). Without Favors + depth (Jerebko, JJ, Thabo, Udoh, Burks) I believe we would likely be somewhere between #6-10.

I don't know this year's draft class well enough to know what kind of talent drop off there is from 5-10 to 11-15. But out of curiosity I glanced at some (potentially incorrect) statistics & did some (potentially incorrect) math.

We're currently 3 games up on #6 SAC (3.5 away from top 5)

According to these percentages, the odds of find a star by pick are:

6. 25%
7. 30%
8. 35%
9. 30%
10. 35%

11. 15%
12. 5%
13. 20%
14. 25%
15. 10%


I didn't look into the study closely enough to know what the qualifications were/etc but if these statistics are valid (& my math is correct), on average, the chances of finding a "star" are 31% when drafting #6-10. When drafting #11-15, it's an avg of 15. So, theoretically, the difference between finding that 3rd piece is +16% when drafting #6-10 vs #11-15.

The information may not be legit, my question is if people continuing to push for the playoffs believe that we have anywhere near a 16% chance of winning a title this year? Or if they consider it irrelevant.

I'm not attempting to attack anyone's opinion but the only justification I can see for not structuring this year's roster (while retaining the long-term core) to produce the highest potential draft pick is having immense faith in DL finding a star regardless of draft position & the belief that the possible playoff experience is essential to re-establishing a "winning culture". Curious what people think.
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Curious, what draft position was Gobert drafted again? How about Mitchell? Top 5 right? Didn't think so. There are never guarantees so why not try to win instead of breed a culture of mediocrity and losing mentality?
 
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