Conley For Horford Discussion

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Jazz don't want Horford's contract. Mitchell has the potential to attract a meaningful FA, and we're not going to be able to move Horford once we take that deal. There are too many other ways we can add size and athleticism at the 4.

I mean unless we trade Rudy we ain't gonna have cap space again.

 

[jom2003]

I'd expect a Conley for Otto Porter trade at some point next season if Porter's able to make a come back from his injury. Both Conley and Porter deals would run out next year so it's a relatively risk free option compared to Horford.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

So I'm convinced that Brett Brown lost this team early in the year and literally all of their players are underperforming. I think they will be desperate to get a pg and to get off of Al's money. Also watching Morgan in the starting lineup and thinking... What if Al was playing in his place. (not that we would have to start him when Bojan is back)

I would consider a deal if we get Horford, Milton, their first next year, and one of their seconds in the 30s. We'd have some routes to lower our long term costs. With Milton on board we could negotiate a little harder with JC this offseason.

I just think Al would look good in our DHO game and solve our backup center problems. Philly is a **** show right now.

Morgan>Horford

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Morgan>Horford

He looks pretty rough but he is not in any kind of position to succeed.

I also really like Shake and think he is good and developed in that semi-toxic environment... so imagine what would happen in an intelligent environment.

 

[LoPo]

I mean unless we trade Rudy we ain't gonna have cap space again.

Exactly.

My whole Horford idea is based on that fact that we are asset poor and relatively old. I don't want to pay Horford $27 in 20-21 and 21-22, but I also don't want to pay Conley $35 in 20-21. Ingles is eventually going to age. Bojan and Gobert are at the peaks of their prime. Being a smaller, reliant on athleticism guard, Clarkson is right at his prime too. We have to preserve of them what we can before they trend down.

We need youth. We need assets. I would do the Horford deal because I think he helps us as much as Conley (TBD in the playoffs I know) but he also gets us very important assets through young players (Thybulle? Milton? multiple 1sts or 2nds?).

Gobert sits an average of 16 minutes per night and he's entering his prime. Give those minutes to Horford and a handful of minutes together. We phase out Bradley (I like the kid and he can play if we are destroying or getting destroyed). Morgan can play at the 4 with Bojan and Brantley.

 

[rjfan]

What i think would stop a Conley for Horford swap is that 4th year. Only one more year and i think it's calculated as an ok bet on overall production and depth matching the risks of killing our cap flexibility while he can get washed anytime as an already 34 yo slow footed player that's as good as Conley at staying in front of his man on the perimeter. But for two years more than Conley, i don't think it is a safe bet.

 

[LoPo]

What i think would stop a Conley for Horford swap is that 4th year. Only one more year and i think it's calculated as an ok bet on overall production and depth matching the risks of killing our cap flexibility while he can get washed anytime as an already 34 yo slow footed player that's as good as Conley at staying in front of his man on the perimeter. But for two years more than Conley, i don't think it is a safe bet.

True. The 4th year isn't all guaranteed, but it's still a decent amount. His contract and decline are the worries. Hopefully, the deal would be made worth it due to the assets acquired with him. Philly might be desperate to move on and they have enough minor assets, picks, players, etc.

This could all be a moot point if Conley works really well in the playoffs. TBD....

 

[GVC]

The Jazz can potentially re-sign Clarkson, keep the full MLE (starting at 9.9mil) and BAE (starting at 3.8mil), and trade Bradley + Davis for a player/players making 13.5mil next year.

That is, there's no need to panic and take on longer-term bad deals to get rid of Conley. The Jazz have plenty of options in trying to add talent.

 

[LoPo]

The Jazz can potentially re-sign Clarkson, keep the full MLE (starting at 9.9mil) and BAE (starting at 3.8mil), and trade Bradley + Davis for a player/players making 13.5mil next year.

That is, there's no need to panic and take on longer-term bad deals to get rid of Conley. The Jazz have plenty of options in trying to add talent.

I wouldn't trade Conley for Horford as a panic move. I would consider it to give us more quality depth and most importantly, young assets. For me (until I see Conley in a Utah playoff game), I think Horford would give us as many quality minutes as Conley. All comes down to those additional assets. If we can fleece a desperate Philly, we might need to do it. There are almost zero teams in a position to take on Horford. We might be one of them if it replenishes our empty asset jar.

 

[Bodhi]

The Jazz can potentially re-sign Clarkson, keep the full MLE (starting at 9.9mil) and BAE (starting at 3.8mil), and trade Bradley + Davis for a player/players making 13.5mil next year.

That is, there's no need to panic and take on longer-term bad deals to get rid of Conley. The Jazz have plenty of options in trying to add talent.

This is why I am still on this site. Thanks GVC!

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Jazz can potentially re-sign Clarkson, keep the full MLE (starting at 9.9mil) and BAE (starting at 3.8mil), and trade Bradley + Davis for a player/players making 13.5mil next year.

That is, there's no need to panic and take on longer-term bad deals to get rid of Conley. The Jazz have plenty of options in trying to add talent.

Sounds great... how much that gonna cost the Millers in Luxury tax? Because once you re-sign JC you are basically already there... then you don't get to use both exceptions as you are a taxpayer... so I believe you only have the taxpayer MLE or would be hardcapped at the apron once using the MLE.

Salary cap is projected to be flat next season so for now you can assume 109M and 133Mish for the luxury tax. I am telling you we will not go into the tax next season with potentially no fans for the first part or entire season. The little spending spree you went on likely just cost like $20-25M and revenue could be down up to 40%.

Please spare me the "millers will pay the tax... they have said so" because every owner says they will spend what it takes to support winning... when it comes time to write that check we shall see.

My offseason spending prediction is we will re-sign JC or use the MLE... if we do both we will salary dump Ed and Tony using draft assets.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is why I am still on this site. Thanks GVC!

To be fed misinformation?

 

[LoPo]

Sounds great... how much that gonna cost the Millers in Luxury tax? Because once you re-sign JC you are basically already there... then you don't get to use both exceptions as you are a taxpayer... so I believe you only have the taxpayer MLE or would be hardcapped at the apron once using the MLE.

Salary cap is projected to be flat next season so for now you can assume 109M and 133Mish for the luxury tax. I am telling you we will not go into the tax next season with potentially no fans for the first part or entire season. The little spending spree you went on likely just cost like $20-25M and revenue could be down up to 40%.

Please spare me the "millers will pay the tax... they have said so" because every owner says they will spend what it takes to support winning... when it comes time to write that check we shall see.

My offseason spending prediction is we will re-sign JC or use the MLE... if we do both we will salary dump Ed and Tony using draft assets.

Great post. Your numbers are correct. If we keep Conley and Davis, and sign Clarkson to his estimated price, and use the full MLE, we are a luxury team. So pretty much, we're the same team plus an MLE player. Don't think that warrants the luxury argument.

This is partly why the Horford idea is interesting. Horford makes $7 less than Conley next year. We could add Horford, future picks, Clarkson and a full MLE and still be under the luxury. Now in 21-22, we are in the luxury to keep Gobert and Mitchell, but that's a different conversation.

For 20-21 to stay under the luxury, it could be Horford, Clarkson, MLE and Philly assets OR Conley, Clarkson and minimum contract additions.

Can we please find somebody to take Davis?

 

[One Brow]

Sounds great... how much that gonna cost the Millers in Luxury tax? Because once you re-sign JC you are basically already there... then you don't get to use both exceptions as you are a taxpayer... so I believe you only have the taxpayer MLE or would be hardcapped at the apron once using the MLE.

Do you get treated as a Luxury Tax team before you ever pay the Tax? I don't think that is true.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also when we don't sign anyone please don't be fooled by the DL talk of "we were aggressive but just didn't find anything that fit what we were after". It will be a cover for the fact we didn't want to overspend. In this environment I do not blame us at all.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you get treated as a Luxury Tax team before you ever pay the Tax? I don't think that is true.

What are you even asking friend? If you are a non-taxpayer but use cap exceptions to go into the tax, then you become hard capped at the apron.... roughly $7M more than the tax.

The bigger issue is signing JC and using the MLE will put us at the tax... so it costs $10M for the player and around $5-7M for the tax. Using both exceptions as outlined above would cost $14M in salary and like $10M in tax... you'd be hard capped and wouldn't be able to do the third move.

 

[GVC]

To be fed misinformation?

What crawled up your ***?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What crawled up your ***?

Was probably kinda harsh but suggesting we will spend like drunken sailors in ways that aren't legal triggered my snark nerve I guess. I know you are pretty good with CBA stuff but what you suggested was incorrect.

 

[Bodhi]

To be fed misinformation?

Edit: nevermind.....Jesus

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Don’t ever @ me to keep some beef going with someone else.

Keep that little kid **** to yourself.

My bad bro... next time I'll just let you live in ignorance thinking something was correct. I sent an @ his way too.

It was overly snarky and @GVC is normally pretty solid on cap stuff. I gots no beef with him. Didn't want to see a million posts of "we can sign xyz guy with our exceptions" when it really is not feasible.