JazzyFresh
Banned
By other countries models that's well past the timeframe. That's 2 months plus half of another.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Hekate
- Start date
JazzyFresh
Banned
The hilarious thing is that even the people who initially created the 75,000,000-150,000,000 model admitting they were waaaay off yet a bunch of Jazzfanzz people still believe it. That model has changed dramatically.
It's also funny that there's not even a million cases world wide but America will have 75,000,000. I've asked for explanations and haven't gotten one.
It's also funny that there's not even a million cases world wide but America will have 75,000,000. I've asked for explanations and haven't gotten one.
latin jazz
Well-Known Member
If you get 70M by end of May either your measures failed miserably in a way that they didn't fail anywhere else(so far), or at some point Trump just decided "**** it, let them die" and lifted the lockdown and the state of emergency.
JazzyFresh
Banned
Lol see even Latin knows I'm right. I wouldn't touch my bet with a 6 foot pole either. It's common sense really. People just want to argue to argue I guess.Why the **** did you include me in your putrid 75M rant?. Go away.
I do not think we will have given 75M tests by the end of May. Diseases can spread exponentially, testing capabilities do not.
JazzyFresh
Banned
EXACTLY!!!
Even for it to happen in a full year as I've pointed out using averages it'll take 200,000+ cases a day for 365 days straight. We don't even have that total............
That's not saying millions are not going to get sick but there's nothing, zip, zero, nada that suggest 75,000,000. Even the model makers admit that.
JazzyFresh
Banned
What would be your timeframe?
JazzyFresh
Banned
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
So I went ahead and looked at which country has the highest number of cases per million. San Marino has about 7000 cases per one million people and that's by far the most of any. So let's just say America has 23,000 case per million somehow. I mean nobody has been able to explain why Americans will get sicker at a more astronomical rate per capita but I already know nobody can explain it so I digress. Anyways if America does somehow get sicker at that rate than that would hit 75,000,000 but I don't see it. Right now we are at 621 per million which is below average but will definitely probably rise to higher averages in the next two weeks.
So I went ahead and looked at which country has the highest number of cases per million. San Marino has about 7000 cases per one million people and that's by far the most of any. So let's just say America has 23,000 case per million somehow. I mean nobody has been able to explain why Americans will get sicker at a more astronomical rate per capita but I already know nobody can explain it so I digress. Anyways if America does somehow get sicker at that rate than that would hit 75,000,000 but I don't see it. Right now we are at 621 per million which is below average but will definitely probably rise to higher averages in the next two weeks.
Why are you using averages for a disease that spreads exponentially? If you don't stop the exponential growth you WILL have 75M and maybe even more and depending on the rate of the exponential growth it might even be by the end of May(if you could test that many, which you won't be able to, but there definitely will be that many infected, if not more). Just an example...
The US has 200K cases right now and is on the 22% exponential curve.... For ease of calculations I'm gonna give you 20% instead. This means the number will about double every 5 days.
Day 0 - 200K
Day 5 - 400K
Day 10 - 800K
Day 15 - 1.6M
Day 20 - 3.2M
Day 25 - 6.4M
Day 30 - 12.8M
(^this is May 1st)
Day 35 - 25.6M
Day 40 - 51.2M
Day 45 - 100M+
(this is middle of May)
If you don't stop the exponential growth you WILL get to more than 70M and possibly by the end of May. BTW keep in mind that the recorded cases are not the same as the real cases. Best estimates right now are that there are probably about 10 times as many real cases as there are recorded. If those estimates are anywhere close to correct you probably already have millions of Americans infected.
Avery
Well-Known Member
It took us a full month to even test one million people - we'll never test 75 million.
The denominator for this will never be known (actual people who have it). All that matters is the numerator which will show us how many died and it's going to be massive.
All we can do is wait out the storm.
The denominator for this will never be known (actual people who have it). All that matters is the numerator which will show us how many died and it's going to be massive.
All we can do is wait out the storm.
JazzyFresh
Banned
What are you basing your curve off of? And thank you for keeping this civil and knowledgeable I 100% appreciate that. I wish more would take your approach.
Here is one month in Italy and the curve has been stopped between 5000 and 6000 for over a week. What makes Americas curve go 2 full months?
Same as Spain
China? Even though I know they're lying.
Hell, I'm even reading reports and Cuomo even said himself NYC was getting a little better.
So when I say end of May, I'm basing it off of other countries. I'm basing it off of averages. America is about to get hit hard but nothing suggest that we wont flatten out by the end of April and that's being generous. There's even cities here outside of NYC that are flattening the curve. San Francisco is doing greatly.
Right now, we don't know how many will get sick, and how many of them will be properly tested.
End of the year for spread. I don't know about tested/confirmed. How many are giving each day right now, and how many are produced each day?
DON'T base it on averages when you are dealing with exponential curves. Just DON'T. It highly depends on when you break the exponential. The average now is small... the average QUICKLY becomes HUGE if you don't stop the exponential. You cannot just assume it will happen. China/Wuhan was in complete lockdown/quarantine. This will never happen in the US. Do you see everybody being forced to stay inside and the government being tasked with distributing food to the households of 300M Americans? This is essentially what China did in Hubei.What are you basing your curve off of? And thank you for keeping this civil and knowledgeable I 100% appreciate that. I wish more would take your approach.
Here is one month in Italy and the curve has been stopped between 5000 and 6000 for over a week. What makes Americas curve go 2 full months?
Same as Spain
China? Even though I know they're lying.
Hell, I'm even reading reports and Cuomo even said himself NYC was getting a little better.
So when I say end of May, I'm basing it off of other countries. I'm basing it off of averages. America is about to get hit hard but nothing suggest that we wont flatten out by the end of April and that's being generous. There's even cities here outside of NYC that are flattening the curve. San Francisco is doing greatly.
Italy had various stages of the lockdown, there were social distancing measures at first, then there was a lockdown, then there was a quarantine... and it's just now that they seem to be breaking the exponential. Similar with Spain, although... I'd still wait a few more days for both of them to be sure. The US still has NOT introduced the most draconian measures that those countries did and I'm not even sure you will be able to take those measures in the US. Again... don't just assume it will happen. You have to take the measures and your population needs to follow them to some degree. That's not to say it might not happen with more lax measures, but it might take longer... or you might not be able to limit the exponential and you will have to introduce more strict measures to rein it in. Italy introduced quarantine on March 9th. And it took them 3 weeks to reach the peak. No state in the US is under quarantine right now(AFAIK? correct me if I'm wrong).
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JazzyFresh
Banned
Averages can tell you a whole lot. Exponential growth just doesn't pick and choose where it wants to grow based off of invisible border lines. There's a median where you can average out the highs and lows and come up with a reasonable expectation. There will always be outliers but hardly ever to the extent it would take to cause a +/- of tens of millions like many here are making. It's statistically impossible.
Or ..
Can you find me one country that had been on the uptick for over 3 weeks? I can't find a single "outlier" so again the chances of the world getting sick at a .06% chance and America getting sick at 30+% is insanely improbable. Almost impossible.
Edit: and please enlighten me just how that happens. What equations are you using to say that even 1% will get sick let alone 30+%. Why will Americans get sick at 30+% but the rest of the world less than one percent.
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Just thought I would chime in and say Trump and the feds are so far behind local gov it’s ****ing embarrassing. Coming from someone on the front lines of this thing. Feds should be leading and we all fall in line. They can barely keep up right now. Just wait till throwing money everywhere will effect a post-COVID economy. This is so long from over folks, and our fed response has been half-assed at best and Trump is the bumbling moron steering us into the iceberg. ***** about to get waaaay worse and we’re woefully unprepared.
What a failure.
Stay home, stay safe. Carry on.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
What a failure.
Stay home, stay safe. Carry on.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You cannot come with a reasonable expectation where you average the highs and the lows because in an exponential the highs overwhelm the lows and it gets there QUICKLY if not stopped. This is why you have to avoid getting to the highs altogether. The median on an exponential is NOT the average/mean. The average is skewed much closer to the end of the exponential. And this doesn't even take into account that you still will have to about double your numbers on the way down to zero once you reach the peak. It doesn't just stop once you break the exponential growth.
Every single major country in the world has followed exponential growth for more than 3 weeks at some point until now. The US is one of them and it continues to follow an exponential growth curve. The ones that don't take the required measures will continue to grow exponentially until they take the measures or the virus run out of people to infect(herd immunity - might be anywhere between about 50 to 80% of the population).
There is no magic equation, because this is a wild disease that we still don't know everything about and it is affected by what you do against it. Measures are taken not uniformly across countries and even when similar measures are taken they are not followed and enforced uniformly. You can look at the data from other countries and make some reasonable predictions. And if I had to bet the US won't get to 70M by May, because they are taking some of the measures that other countries have taken that have reached what seems like a local peak. And IMO if things don't slow down they will continue taking stricter measures until they break the exponential growth. But this is just a guess on my part and here's where the uncertainty comes.
The hard part is not predicting what happens while you are on the exponential curve. The hard part is predicting when you will jump off the exponential.
BTW, this still doesn't answer the question I posed earlier today - what happens after you get it under control and the cases start dropping to 10K... or 1K... do you let loose and risk another peak? Do you wait for it to get to 0? There is a real danger of second peak if the measure are let up and it's still not cleaned out of the population. I don't know what the answer is here at all... I just haven't heard a good(actually ANY) plan about how you restart life without risking it happening again?
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Miggs
Well-Known Member
I’m nervous for my wife’s job. She’s pretty high up in Big 3 CPA and has been due to be promoted for 2-3 years now (but hasn’t because they’re very top heavy) to partner-equivalent but I’m seriously worried about this. The one typical way to shed money is to lay off second tier management. Lay off 500 people worldwide and you’ve saved the company ~80 million dollars. Their CEO gave a call last week and said they are absolutely not laying one person off as they believe most of what’s happening now will be back-logged to the fall when things will get super busy and they’ll need everyone. My take is you never know. The narrative changes in two months if their clients get murdered and can’t re-up them as their auditors or tax people because their fees are so exorbitant.
I guess we’ll see. She’s been told through someone else that a certain group would feel the layoffs first. And I do know she is sort of an expert in a niche role for which they don’t have many other people that competent if any at all. Still. Scary **** if I sit here and ponder on the what ifs for too long since we have three little ones at home.
For anyone out there who’s in a similar or worse spot, my God’s honest thoughts and prayers are with you.
I guess we’ll see. She’s been told through someone else that a certain group would feel the layoffs first. And I do know she is sort of an expert in a niche role for which they don’t have many other people that competent if any at all. Still. Scary **** if I sit here and ponder on the what ifs for too long since we have three little ones at home.
For anyone out there who’s in a similar or worse spot, my God’s honest thoughts and prayers are with you.