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Does Lauri Get Traded?

Does Lauri Get Dealt Before The Season Starts?

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
"Golden State has an aggressive trade package..."

The package:
beware-of-the-dog-7-57ee55c6ea4c1__605.jpg
 
MT Steve said:
If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty. I don't think you need to worry about that. If they're really good to the point where we are 9th-10th worst, then that's fantastic, because it means we nailed those picks.
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You don't understand how "trying to lose" works apparently. The coach will play the players he thinks help him win... the more of those he has the further the rookies and sophs are from playing. Rookies especially will have to be clearly better than the vets to play.
MT Steve said:
lol

I literally told you they were extremely generous in that very same post, to show how silly you were being over acting like it was a guaranteed thing, when the reality is it's miniscule. Go apply your own percentages and see what you come up with.
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So you pull some numbers out of your *** and I pull some numbers out of my *** and then its all good. LOL you are complaining about me accepting your numbers... don't put em out there if you want some gotcha.

Say its somewhere between 3% and 30%. It is still a benefit to moving Walker (and we are getting value for him in the trade... stated that a bunch). What are the chances Walker's value actually declines this year... not cuz he sucks but just doesn't show improvement. His value goes down by what... 50%. His contract is halved... so his value likely at least halved. Getting a reasonable return for him now and adding on 3% or 33% chance to getting an all star on top of it... I will take that.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
You don't understand how "trying to lose" works apparently. The coach will play the players he thinks help him win... the more of those he has the further the rookies and sophs are from playing. Rookies especially will have to be clearly better than the vets to play.
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Yeah, explains why all the young players got no burn post ASB last year once the Jazz decided they wanted to start losing.

Wait.

Handlogten's Heros said:
So you pull some numbers out of your *** and I pull some numbers out of my *** and then its all good. LOL you are complaining about me accepting your numbers... don't put em out there if you want some gotcha.
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I mean, I told you they were very generous in that very same post. If I knew I was talking to somebody who was going to be willfully obtuse about it, I would have just gone with the more realistic numbers from the start. That's my bad.

Handlogten's Heros said:
Say its somewhere between 3% and 30%. It is still a benefit to moving Walker (and we are getting value for him in the trade... stated that a bunch). What are the chances Walker's value actually declines this year... not cuz he sucks but just doesn't show improvement. His value goes down by what... 50%. His contract is halved... so his value likely at least halved. Getting a reasonable return for him now and adding on 3% or 33% chance to getting an all star on top of it... I will take that.
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The 30% ceiling you're citing was assuming the player we get with the 4th-5th pick is a lot better than the player we get with the 9th-10th pick. It's not the odds of getting a star at 4th/5th compared to a non all-star at 9th/10th. The number goes much lower when you change that variable, as I did in my previous post to get to the 3.2% number. If you want to go back to the cartoonishly generous assumption that Walker Kessler has a 50/50 chance of single-handedly dragging us from 4th-5th to 9th-10th, then the 3.2% still only changes to 8.0%.

And again, to make it very clear so that you don't make the same mistake as before and try to claim it's 8%, it isn't. It's 8% if we're being cartoonishly generous, and most like somewhere closer to 3.2%.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Also apply the percentage it's the 2014 draft class all over again...
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Okay.... done... it was already assumed. We also need to apply all the in-between scenarios where its not just the difference between 4th-5th and 9th-10th.
 
MT Steve said:
Yeah, explains why all the young players got no burn post ASB last year once the Jazz decided they wanted to start losing.

Wait.
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Doing that for 30 games at the end of the season has a limited impact. I guess if you think Hardy holds out Lauri, Clarkson, Kessler, Collins from game 1 then you are right. The young guys will play and we will lose A LOT. Thats a better route to go than just trading one of the guys.
MT Steve said:
I mean, I told you they were very generous in that very same post. If I knew I was talking to somebody who was going to be willfully obtuse about it, I would have just gone with the more realistic numbers from the start. That's my bad.


The 30% ceiling you're citing was assuming the player we get with the 4th-5th pick is a lot better than the player we get with the 9th-10th pick. It's not the odds of getting a star at 4th/5th compared to a non all-star at 9th/10th. The number goes much lower when you change that variable, as I did in my previous post to get to the 3.2% number. If you want to go back to the cartoonishly generous assumption that Walker Kessler has a 50/50 chance of single-handedly dragging us from 4th-5th to 9th-10th, then the 3.2% still only changes to 8.0%.

And again, to make it very clear so that you don't make the same mistake as before and try to claim it's 8%, it isn't. It's 8% if we're being cartoonishly generous, and most like somewhere closer to 3.2%.
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Use whatever math you need to math this all out for yourself. Good players help you win more games. Coaches will play good players more than bad players. Going from 30 minutes of Kessler and 18 minutes of Collins/Eubanks in some split is better than Collins/Eubanks and Flip? or Samanic? if there are injuries along the line not having as many serviceable players exaggerates the injury impact.

There are any number of outcomes from trading or keeping Walker. I think the ones I prefer would include getting a palatable return for him and prioritizing draft order.

If you simply compare rosters realistically with the bad teams as they sit... we might be somewhere between 5th and 8th worst. Injuries will be a factor and other "we didn't see this coming" type of events. I would prefer to take some mystery out of that.
 
I'm sick to death of trading players for future picks. At the very least trade for a player that has potential to be great. Otherwise, please keep Lauri.
 
Elizah Huge said:
This is peak JazzFanz
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Its just weird that Walker's biggest fan doesn't think he will impact winning in a meaningful way. Every bad team has bad players, rookies, and otherwise. Its also funny that others throw cold water on Walker helping us while singing the praises of Tobias Harris and Grant Williams.

Its also funny that two years ago (without doing math) I correctly told folks here that we were a mid 30s win team and needed to cut even more if we were serious about Wemby.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think I’d just look at moving Walker or Sexton at this point. You will likely not get peak value for them but it will allow you to tank and even if you traded Lauri I would think later you’d likely move one of those guys too. Tank with Lauri… try to be some version of what OKC did.
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Yeah, now that it looks like we can’t improve our team this offseason, the focus absolutely has to be next year’s draft. And that’s why, whether we trade Lauri or not, the smartest thing to do is to trade Sexton, Clarkson, and Collins (although moving even one of them is easier said than done). I didn’t include Kessler because he’s young and it looks like we’re not quite sure of him yet.
 
underdog said:
Yeah, now that it looks like we can’t improve our team this offseason, the focus absolutely has to be next year’s draft. And that’s why, whether we trade Lauri or not, the smartest thing to do is to trade Sexton, Clarkson, and Collins (although moving even one of them is easier said than done). I didn’t include Kessler because he’s young and it looks like we’re not quite sure of him yet.
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I think the two most important things that will determine what our franchises next 5 years looks like are
1- Lauri - keeping him or moving him and how he develops
2- Whoever we draft in 2025 with our top 10 pick or not having a top 10 pick if it goes to OKC.

There are other important things but those should be the priorities imo. I just wouldn't mess around with draft position... hitting it big on a top 5 pick changes our world.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Its just weird that Walker's biggest fan doesn't think he will impact winning in a meaningful way. Every bad team has bad players, rookies, and otherwise. Its also funny that others throw cold water on Walker helping us while singing the praises of Tobias Harris and Grant Williams.

Its also funny that two years ago (without doing math) I correctly told folks here that we were a mid 30s win team and needed to cut even more if we were serious about Wemby.
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We both told everyone the over was free money.
 
Elizah Huge said:
We both told everyone the over was free money.
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Maybe we should all play a game where we predict the amount of wins based on the current roster. People can assign wins to players as they like, so that if they are moved later or hurt we can see where others would have guessed we'd land in wins. Would also assume we make no other additions or folks could give a number that would account for that.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Doing that for 30 games at the end of the season has a limited impact. I guess if you think Hardy holds out Lauri, Clarkson, Kessler, Collins from game 1 then you are right. The young guys will play and we will lose A LOT. Thats a better route to go than just trading one of the guys.

Use whatever math you need to math this all out for yourself. Good players help you win more games. Coaches will play good players more than bad players. Going from 30 minutes of Kessler and 18 minutes of Collins/Eubanks in some split is better than Collins/Eubanks and Flip? or Samanic? if there are injuries along the line not having as many serviceable players exaggerates the injury impact.

There are any number of outcomes from trading or keeping Walker. I think the ones I prefer would include getting a palatable return for him and prioritizing draft order.

If you simply compare rosters realistically with the bad teams as they sit... we might be somewhere between 5th and 8th worst. Injuries will be a factor and other "we didn't see this coming" type of events. I would prefer to take some mystery out of that.
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I'm just illustrating how the "We'll lose more games without him" impact has really low odds of giving a meaningful benefit in and of itself.

If you don't think Walker is a building block and you get a really good offer now that you don't think you'll get later, then sure, do it. The tanking aspect of trading him should be a very minimal part of the overall decision.
 
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