Does Lauri Get Traded?

[sip]

Yeah I'd quibble with Moody and the full 3 firsts part. I'd say its 4.5-5 firsts type value plus the swaps. Take Podz out and its like 3-3.5 1sts plus swaps... its good but the middle ground imo is they keep Moody. If they can get a first for Moody I'd say they should do that with a third team and route that pick our way. A godfather offer is one you HAVE to take. You have no choice because its so good. Without Podz it ain't a godfather offer. Its a solid offer. It doesn't have to be a godfather offer to make sense though.

Bridges got 5 firsts that are largely unencumbered and a swap plus Bogey (not sure there is much if any value there but maybe if healthy).

Do you value those knicks firsts more than the warriors firsts? I expect the knicks to be very good for the next 5 years based on the age of their core.

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah I'd quibble with Moody and the full 3 firsts part. I'd say its 4.5-5 firsts type value plus the swaps. Take Podz out and its like 3-3.5 1sts plus swaps... its good but the middle ground imo is they keep Moody. If they can get a first for Moody I'd say they should do that with a third team and route that pick our way. A godfather offer is one you HAVE to take. You have no choice because its so good. Without Podz it ain't a godfather offer. Its a solid offer. It doesn't have to be a godfather offer to make sense though.

Bridges got 5 firsts that are largely unencumbered and a swap plus Bogey (not sure there is much if any value there but maybe if healthy).

If you say so. I don't even know what pick you want to count as half. Is it 26 or 30? I'd rather have 30. I'd also rather have both 26 and 30 over some of the picks that the Nets got from the Knicks. However you want to quibble with the picks, it's a **** ton either way. Having 4.5-5 + 4 swaps as your hard line, nothing else below this can be accepted offer is crazy expectations IMO. But you do you. The expectations outside of the Jazz bubble are much different.

Me personally, I don't think the middle ground should be on Moody. When it comes to how much they should value Moody vs how much we should value Moody, Moody is the best value. I can see how they want to keep Podz and how it would take an "overpay" to get him. Moody should be in the deal not because we have to have him, but because he will be the best value.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you value those knicks firsts more than the warriors firsts? I expect the knicks to be very good for the next 5 years based on the age of their core.

Life comes at you fast. They have a lot of cap issues coming and will need to consolidate. Who knows.

 

[KqWIN]

Lemme play!

Podz and Moody = 2.5 unprotected picks
3 super swaps (25/27/29) = 2 unprotected picks
3 basically unprotected (26/28/30) = 2.75 unprotected picks
1 normal swap way out in 2031 = 0.75 unprotected pick (due to how far out it is and upside value)

I count at least 8 picks worth of value there.

We can quibble all we want about just how accurate this is....the package we're talking about is so far beyond what Bridges got. Bridges offer was already seen as a crazy haul. I love Lauri, he's not Luka on a 5 year deal and while I don't see tank+Lauri as bad, it's not something that you need to have 8+ FRP value to budge from.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you say so. I don't even know what pick you want to count as half. Is it 26 or 30? I'd rather have 30. I'd also rather have both 26 and 30 over some of the picks that the Nets got from the Knicks. However you want to quibble with the picks, it's a **** ton either way. Having 4.5-5 + 4 swaps as your hard line, nothing else below this can be accepted offer is crazy expectations IMO. But you do you. The expectations outside of the Jazz bubble are much different.

Me personally, I don't think the middle ground should be on Moody. When it comes to how much they should value Moody vs how much we should value Moody, Moody is the best value. I can see how they want to keep Podz and how it would take an "overpay" to get him. Moody should be in the deal not because we have to have him, but because he will be the best value.

Its more like part of a pick for 2030 and part of a pick for Moody. The evaluation and comparison to Bridges is a little flawed based on what we reportedly know. Bridges did not want to be there. Brooklyn has been able to have some success in FA. Pivot. We have a guy who was an AS a year ago. He also likes it here and wants to be here. If that changes I'd settle. We have a hard time retaining AS talent in this market... so I'm not settling on the picks or Podz. Sorry.

 

[NUMBERICA]

So who plays the Cavs-equivalent role in this scenario and what do they offer?

-Houston’s been floated and it makes some sense
-I still wonder about Sacramento even though they’d be in salary cap hell to do it (they’re only down a ‘31 swap and some seconds, after all)
-Sixers feel like they don’t have the package (saying nothing of salary issues)
-… Lakers? Unprotect ‘27 + ‘29 and ‘31 + 28 and 30 swaps? And Reaves? He would be a killer fit there.
-Are the Spurs too smart to **** with Danny?

 

[sip]

Life comes at you fast. They have a lot of cap issues coming and will need to consolidate. Who knows.

There cap issues are far less significant with Brunson and Bridges taking under market value.

 

[KqWIN]

Its more like part of a pick for 2030 and part of a pick for Moody. The evaluation and comparison to Bridges is a little flawed based on what we reportedly know. Bridges did not want to be there. Brooklyn has been able to have some success in FA. Pivot. We have a guy who was an AS a year ago. He also likes it here and wants to be here. If that changes I'd settle. We have a hard time retaining AS talent in this market... so I'm not settling on the picks or Podz. Sorry.

I don't care about these leverage conversations, you can list out a bunch of things that made it go the other way. Who cares, is the goal of our franchise to win the leverage battle as much as possible and squeeze out every ounce of trade value? I care about the deal that is acceptable and if completed puts the franchise in a better spot. I'm not going to turn down a deal that makes us better because we think we ought to be able to leverage out a little bit more.

What I see when I see this extremely high bar for an acceptable deal is an extreme enthusiasm for tank+Lauri plan. Do you value it that much? Aren't you scared about Bazley and Juzang ruining our tank? From my perspective, I do not care about getting the last drop possible out of a trade. I care about the position the Jazz are in as a franchise. Tank+Lauri is fine, but I don't need more than 8 FRP value (or whatever you want to call that extreme Podz+Moody+all picks offer) to move me from that position.

 

[sip]

So who plays the Cavs-equivalent role in this scenario and what do they offer?

-Houston’s been floated and it makes some sense
-I still wonder about Sacramento even though they’d be in salary cap hell to do it (they’re only down a ‘31 swap and some seconds, after all)
-Sixers feel like they don’t have the package (saying nothing of salary issues)
-… Lakers? Unprotect ‘27 + ‘29 and ‘31 + 28 and 30 swaps? And Reaves? He would be a killer fit there.
-Are the Spurs too smart to **** with Danny?

I'm hoping for Houston because I like the pieces they have better.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There cap issues are far less significant with Brunson and Bridges taking under market value.

Their owner gave out $40M per for OG as well... and was bitching about having to redistribute dollars to the poor other NBA franchises. One significant injury and homeboy may not want to write the enormous check coming.

 

[sip]

Their owner gave out $40M per for OG as well... and was bitching about having to redistribute dollars to the poor other NBA franchises. One significant injury and homeboy may not want to write the enormous check coming.

So you seem to be valuing the future knicks 1sts higher than the warriors. Is that correct? If so what makes you so confident in the warriors long term?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't care about these leverage conversations, you can list out a bunch of things that made it go the other way. Who cares, is the goal of our franchise to win the leverage battle as much as possible and squeeze out every ounce of trade value? I care about the deal that is acceptable and if completed puts the franchise in a better spot. I'm not going to turn down a deal that makes us better because we think we ought to be able to leverage out a little bit more.

In one place you say having the picks plus podz and moody is an insane overpay and then say you aren't concerned squeezing every ounce of value. Podz isn't an ounce of value... he's obviously a key part of the squeeze.

What I see when I see this extremely high bar for an acceptable deal is an extreme enthusiasm for tank+Lauri plan. Do you value it that much? Aren't you scared about Bazley and Juzang ruining our tank? From my perspective, I do not care about getting the last drop possible out of a trade. I care about the position the Jazz are in as a franchise. Tank+Lauri is fine, but I don't need more than 8 FRP value (or whatever you want to call that extreme Podz+Moody+all picks offer) to move me from that position.

I would not call it extreme enthusiasm lol. I see a team that will be in the mix for 6-8 if injuries don't derail the season. And yes having functional guys like Bazley and Juzang can fill holes that should have incompetent rookies. If you remove one of Sexton, Kessler or to a lesser extent Collins or Clarkson I think it could be a better path even if you don't squeeze the value there. Is having Lauri and landing 8th worse than having Moody+Picks and landing say 3rd... IDK and there are lots of other potential ends to the season that would fit in between those options. One injury early in the season and you may be bottom 5 really quick. Tank plus Lauri is a legitimate path forward. Full tank is also a legit path forward.

There are lots of paths forward. I'd rather pursue the tank plus Lauri route unless we get a truly enormous offer. Trading Sexton or Kessler is not a monumental pivot point. Trading an all-star that wants to be here is. So if the delta in the offers is one is seen as 8 FRP and one is 5.5-6 FRP, then I need to close that gap. Trading Sexton or Kessler is about tanking 2025 and then taking a look at where you are. Trading Lauri is about tanking 25, 26, and hopefully not too much longer... but maybe. You'd also likely move Sexton if you traded Lauri... he'd be on an expiring and I'm not sure I'd want to try and extend him.

Keeping Lauri keeps a few options open that close up... again... he wants to be here. So yeah... I will ask for A LOT.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So you seem to be valuing the future knicks 1sts higher than the warriors. Is that correct? If so what makes you so confident in the warriors long term?

I'm not. You are putting words in my mouth. I think they all bank on uncertainty. If Steph tears his ACL the Warriors picks are great now and maybe in the future (maybe they land some FA... you never know). If Brunson tears his ACL maybe the Knicks picks are awesome. If we send Lauri to GS they will have him and he's a young AS. No one knows what 2028-2031 looks like. The picks are likely somewhat similar in value because of uncertainty. I'd likely prefer GS picks. Others may see it differently.

 

[KqWIN]

In one place you say having the picks plus podz and moody is an insane overpay and then say you aren't concerned squeezing every ounce of value. Podz isn't an ounce of value... he's obviously a key part of the squeeze.


I would not call it extreme enthusiasm lol. I see a team that will be in the mix for 6-8 if injuries don't derail the season. And yes having functional guys like Bazley and Juzang can fill holes that should have incompetent rookies. If you remove one of Sexton, Kessler or to a lesser extent Collins or Clarkson I think it could be a better path even if you don't squeeze the value there. Is having Lauri and landing 8th worse than having Moody+Picks and landing say 3rd... IDK and there are lots of other potential ends to the season that would fit in between those options. One injury early in the season and you may be bottom 5 really quick. Tank plus Lauri is a legitimate path forward. Full tank is also a legit path forward. I’ll

There are lots of paths forward. I'd rather pursue the tank plus Lauri route unless we get a truly enormous offer. Trading Sexton or Kessler is not a monumental pivot point. Trading an all-star that wants to be here is. So if the delta in the offers is one is seen as 8 FRP and one is 5.5-6 FRP, then I need to close that gap. Trading Sexton or Kessler is about tanking 2025 and then taking a look at where you are. Trading Lauri is about tanking 25, 26, and hopefully not too much longer... but maybe. You'd also likely move Sexton if you traded Lauri... he'd be on an expiring and I'm not sure I'd want to try and extend him.

Keeping Lauri keeps a few options open that close up... again... he wants to be here. So yeah... I will ask for A LOT.

Don’t see how I’m contradicting myself. I would take an offer with Moody and all the picks. That is my line, an offer with Podz is significantly above the line. I never called Podz an ounce of value. I said that my focus would be to not seek out every ounce of value and having that be the key motivation in this decision. If the offer lands on Moody+All picks, I am ok with that offer no matter who “won” the negotiation and does not blink first.

I see a lot of people saying we should get more because of X, Y, Z. Ok….well my focus is not on getting max potential but a deal where I can say I feel like we are better off than before. I don’t care if we feel like we could have leveraged more. If the trade happens, I’m not going to be asking myself if we could have leveraged more and judging the trade based on that. I’m going to be asking myself if the Jazz are in a better position than they were a day before the trade.

It’s an incredible amount of value for Lauri. If that is your hard line and won’t take anything less than to me that demonstrates a really strong enthusiasm to do tank+Lauri. It stands to reason that the higher standard you have for a Lauri trade, the more enthusiasm you have for keeping him.

Feels like this conversation is already looping. We’ll see what happens. The standards for a trade here are incredibly higher than any non-Jazz bubble circle. Sometimes the consensus is wrong, who knows. I feel like my standards are already high compared to the consensus.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Don’t see how I’m contradicting myself. I would take an offer with Moody and all the picks. That is my line, an offer with Podz is significantly above the line. I never called Podz an ounce of value. I said that my focus would be to not seek out every ounce of value and having that be the key motivation in this decision. If the offer lands on Moody+All picks, I am ok with that offer no matter who “won” the negotiation and does not blink first.

Its just a word choice that makes it seem as though we are haggling on seconds. Podz has a lot of value... you agree... that is worth driving a hard bargain over.

I see a lot of people saying we should get more because of X, Y, Z. Ok….well my focus is not on getting max potential but a deal where I can say I feel like we are better off than before. I don’t care if we feel like we could have leveraged more. If the trade happens, I’m not going to be asking myself if we could have leveraged more and judging the trade based on that. I’m going to be asking myself if the Jazz are in a better position than they were a day before the trade.

Fine. I think we are in a worse position if we make a less than optimal deal and now are in the dumps for at least 2-3 years. Agree to disagree.

It’s an incredible amount of value for Lauri. If that is your hard line and won’t take anything less than to me that demonstrates a really strong enthusiasm to do tank+Lauri. It stands to reason that the higher standard you have for a Lauri trade, the more enthusiasm you have for keeping him.

Enthusiasm is already an intense preference... extreme enthusiasm is so far beyond that... its an exaggeration. I have a preference for the tank with Lauri move. We are getting a pile of quarters if we don't get Podz. I'd prefer a giant pile of quarters or some actual paper money... GS really doesn't have that blue chip prospect or immediate pick that has promise.

Feels like this conversation is already looping. We’ll see what happens. The standards for a trade here are incredibly higher than any non-Jazz bubble circle. Sometimes the consensus is wrong, who knows. I feel like my standards are already high compared to the consensus.

My personal standards are higher in this case than with Donovan and Rudy. I've stated why before. If we agree to Moody and picks I think it was because Lauri gave indications he may want out soon if things don't change so you settle. I'd rather extend the runway to draft a stud and pair them with Lauri than move him for that package. May regret it for a bunch of reasons... but if I'm going to cut that runway off its going to be obviously the right decision.

 

[KqWIN]

Its just a word choice that makes it seem as though we are haggling on seconds. Podz has a lot of value... you agree... that is worth driving a hard bargain over.


Fine. I think we are in a worse position if we make a less than optimal deal and now are in the dumps for at least 2-3 years. Agree to disagree.


Enthusiasm is already an intense preference... extreme enthusiasm is so far beyond that... its an exaggeration. I have a preference for the tank with Lauri move. We are getting a pile of quarters if we don't get Podz. I'd prefer a giant pile of quarters or some actual paper money... GS really doesn't have that blue chip prospect or immediate pick that has promise.


My personal standards are higher in this case than with Donovan and Rudy. I've stated why before. If we agree to Moody and picks I think it was because Lauri gave indications he may want out soon if things don't change so you settle. I'd rather extend the runway to draft a stud and pair them with Lauri than move him for that package. May regret it for a bunch of reasons... but if I'm going to cut that runway off its going to be obviously the right decision.

Only thing I would add onto this is that Lauri wanting to extend/not extend is not the only factor here. We might just want to really tank. I have obviously been more pessimistic about our chances of winning games with Lauri and am the first one to mentioned the flattened odds, but I still see the value in tanking harder and wanting to do it immediately. "Tank the F out of this bitch" has been your motto for awhile, so I'm sure you can see the appeal in it as well. I think we're already bad and if you simulated the season 100000 times we'd be in the bottom 5 a lot, but murphy's law and all. Security is worth something.

I don't think my line is a settle, but if a deal happened and it felt like settling to me....I would take that more of a sign that the Jazz wanted to tank immediately versus Lauri wanting out.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Only thing I would add onto this is that Lauri wanting to extend/not extend is not the only factor here. We might just want to really tank. I have obviously been more pessimistic about our chances of winning games with Lauri and am the first one to mentioned the flattened odds, but I still see the value in tanking harder and wanting to do it immediately. "Tank the F out of this bitch" has been your motto for awhile, so I'm sure you can see the appeal in it as well. I think we're already bad and if you simulated the season 100000 times we'd be in the bottom 5 a lot, but murphy's law and all. Security is worth something.

I don't think my line is a settle, but if a deal happened and it felt like settling to me....I would take that more of a sign that the Jazz wanted to tank immediately versus Lauri wanting out.

and I think I mentioned that at one point, so I don't disagree. It would be counter to the messaging around the franchise but I've always been a "gms lie so look at their actions".

I am a "tank the eff outta this B" guy. I just think there are scenarios where we make another move and are like a 4-5 spot team with Lauri vs. a 6-8 team with him as-is. I probably prefer those scenarios over being a bottom 2-3 team by trading Lauri unless we get a clear/decisive overpay.

 

[Elizah Huge]

The Warriors package with Podz and Moody far outweighs the Knicks package in my opinion.

Knicks gave up:

2 likely late 2025 firsts
27/29/31 unprotected firsts
28 pick swap
Bogey

Compare that to the potential Warriors offer:

26/28/30 firsts
25/27/29/31 super swaps
Podziemski
Moody

 

[KqWIN]

and I think I mentioned that at one point, so I don't disagree. It would be counter to the messaging around the franchise but I've always been a "gms lie so look at their actions".

I am a "tank the eff outta this B" guy. I just think there are scenarios where we make another move and are like a 4-5 spot team with Lauri vs. a 6-8 team with him as-is. I probably prefer those scenarios over being a bottom 2-3 team by trading Lauri unless we get a clear/decisive overpay.

Hard tanking/Lauri wanting out obviously go hand in hand as well. I believe that Lauri would want to sign here even without R+E....but I think the FO will need to have an honest conversation and say, "you're going to play 40 games this season, but get paid $20M+ more to do it". If that's a no and he will be frustrated by the divine intervention, that could swing us towards a trade.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Some analytics guys did the value on the super swaps and they range in value from anywhere from the 22nd pick to the 31st pick. So count those essentially as late firsts in an offer.

2 unprotected firsts
1 protected (21-30) first
4 super swaps (4 late firsts)
Podziemski
Moody

I would say that offer is easily worth 8-10 firsts in value.