Donovan refuses to say whether or not he wants to be in Utah moving forward

[jope]

If Don is the smallest guy on the floor, we become incredibly more dynamic, and I don't think his value would drop, even without Gobert (Don didn't play with Gobert as much as you'd think, only 4 of his top 10 lineups featured Gobert).

Don was noticeably better while playing PG, as the numbers showed that If Don played full time PG this season, in his 33.8 mins per game, he would have averaged 28/6/5 on 54.5 eFG%, with a 29.1 PER (82games.com)
He also defended opposing PGs somewhat better, with opposing SGs shooting .557 eFG% compared to opposing PGs shooting .544 eFG%.
His net production (vs his opponent) while playing PG was also higher than when he plays SG (PG: +8.5 PER, +14 ppg, +1.5 assts | SG: +4.7 PER, +11.4, +2.5 asst)

Don would thrive as PG (not stating whether the team would), and thus I don't think his value would drop.
If we want the team to be ok we need to be able to hide him though. There's no way he's any worse of a defender than Lillard or Curry, and those teams have made it work plenty of times, but it has to be planned and accounted for.

 

[Jingled]

The bending over backwards and catering to a guy that's never been an All-NBA player is wild to me. I get that it's hard to get star players in Utah, but the control that Smith, Wade and others have given to Donovan is a mistake IMO. We're not talking about a top 5 guy here, Donovan is a top 25 player, maybe top 20 at best.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Uhh...I'm struggling to understand the points made here. I don't understand why Don's value slides outside of an injury. His value doesn't slide if the team wins less, that's not how trade value has ever worked for star players. If you're going to make the argument that Don as an individual player looks better because Rudy made him look better (good screens)....I suppose that could be true, but there's also a chance Donovan improves as a player and increases his value. Don had a good year this season, but the championship expectation and magnifier glass on his defense did not help his stock. A team without much expectation is ideal for his trade value.

The second part is what I really don't understand though. You need to trade the package you get for Rudy again? Huh??? Why does that happen because you didn't trade Don? I just used John Collings as an example because I think ATL is the most likely trade destination, but you can insert any trade package there. If you look at any of the rumored teams, they almost exclusively playoff teams and we're unlikely to get a package with more distant future type assets....but that is independent of our decision to trade Mitchell.



I don't think it does. I think the well established players on the roster should be moved even if both are back, but if you just traded Rudy there's really no reason why you can't do any of the above outside of tanking immediately (tanking is a permanent, standing option that is always available).


It is a low likelihood of working out. I don't think Don will stay in that scenario, maybe he asks out a year later. But the option of trading him is still there at that time. Like I said, I think it's incredibly unlikely that his value drops. That just doesn't happen when it comes to stars being traded. I don't see examples of this. Even in situations where it is brutally obvious that players will be traded, teams have waited it out and it's worked out for them. The Pelicans had Anthony Davis with one year left and could basically only trade him to one team, and yet they still got maximum value from. Don's value dropping is not a concern for me, and I actually think you're more likely to get a better deal by waiting to see what offers you get over a longer period of time. Even if you don't think Don is going to finish out his contract here, hold that leverage against teams as long as you can. If you commit to trading him this summer, I'm really not sure that means you get the best deal. In fact, I'd be surprised if you did. Wait for the godfather offer.

Whatever small chance there is of things working out well with Don, I'd take that given that the opportunity cost is simply trading him later.



I don't agree with this analogy. The end goal in your scenario is to get healthy, but getting rid of Don and Rudy is not the equivalent of getting healthy. In other words, trading Mitchell and Gobert is not success, getting two players of their caliber is success. Logically, surgery would imply that it would leave your knee's healthy. But if you trade Mitchell and Gobert, getting a player of their caliber is not likely.

I think you have a better shot of getting two stars by keeping one and using whatever you get in trade for the other. But what makes this a clear decision for me is that if that plan fails, the other plan is still available. You can always be bad, but you can't always have Donovan Mitchell. If Donovan Mitchell decides he doesn't want to be here, it is incredibly easy to be bad but not easy to get another Donovan Mitchell just because you're bad. That's why I think having Mitchell is a much stronger position. You essentially keep both options open for very little risk.

If you get the godfather offer for Mitchell today, of course you take it. I wouldn't say he's unavailable for trade...but what you absolutely can't do is back yourself into a corner and think that you have to trade Donovan. I wouldn't have urgency to tank because that option is always available. One of the biggest complaints that people have about FO's is that they are impatient...I think people need to be patient with the Don inevitable Don trade.

Couple things:

The reason you end up recycling a player like John Collins if the Donovan trade doesn’t work out is because at that point you are going to be forced to rebuild. Had you taken a pick heavy package then you likely got more draft value than you would trading Collins a year later. Unless you think you are holding on to him… which the upside is going from a 30 win team to a 35 win team?

If the plan is to blow it up it also helps you find more bidders for Rudy. Take Dallas for example they don’t have a great win now package they would offer but they could throw out like 3-4 unprotected firsts… that isn’t an acceptable package if you are keeping Donovan and trying to win. There isn’t going to be a lot of teams in that bidding pool… probably 5 teams. You may cut that in half if you aren’t considering the pick centered packages.

With regard to the other players… you can likely find draft or young player packages for Mike or Bogey… doing those while keeping Donovan signals that we aren’t trying to win now and increases the chances he bounces.

With regard to Donovan’s value… assume he’s healthy and plays like 1-2% better. Going from 3 years down to 2 years left on his deal will lower his value to some teams… you are in the contract range of “team X would be interested in trading for Donovan but only if he signs an extension… and his team has said no”. Less bidders means less offers… may not change his value and you may be fine… I will admit that.

But you also have to consider there may be a bidder that says “we can pay a premium to get Donovan now… he may love it here… but if he doesn’t we can move him in a year for 80-90% of what we paid.” So a team like Detroit might pony up a top 4 pick, Jerami Grant, Hayes, and another pick or two… but if there are only 2 years left they might not want to risk it.

Another consideration is injuries happen… there is a greater chance that he will suffer a terrible injury than the chance that we will be good enough to convince him to stay. If he suffers an ACL injury midway through the season who is ponying up a similar package.

Finally I am very much of the opinion that if we trade Rudy we are likely a lotto team next year… I think we’d be a play in team. So instead of getting a top 5 pick and having a chance at a true superstar… we’d be end of lottery. There is serious value there.

 

[Hearsky]

Post season Raptor defense rating for DM. Worse in playoffs than regular season. Hard to imagine.

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[Handlogten's Heros]

The bending over backwards and catering to a guy that's never been an All-NBA player is wild to me. I get that it's hard to get star players in Utah, but the control that Smith, Wade and others have given to Donovan is a mistake IMO. We're not taking about a top 5 guy here, Donovan is a top 25 player, maybe top 20 at best.

That’s the other issue… if you think we will do good basketball moves regardless of Donovan you are wrong. We will get the guys Donovan wants in a fruitless attempt to make him happy. It’s another reason to rip the Bandaid off…

Look I’m not saying you have to trade em both or keep ‘em both… but if you move Rudy you have to do the move that is best for the franchise… not the move you think makes him happiest. We won’t magically transform into a 55+ win team swapping out Rudy and our older players in trades… we are… is that even enough winning you keep him happy.

Keeping Donovan is a business move… it helps sell more tickets and suites and jerseys… it avoids us looking rough during all star break. It’s not the best basketball move.

Look at the other times teams pandered to a star… Lebron bails and leaves Cleveland with a bunch of tough contracts on guys he wanted and they ate up their draft resource to put vets around him… it was worth it for sure… BECAUSE ITS ****ING LEBRON! But there is still damage left… we want to deal with that potential leftover damage to watch Don lead is to the play in for a year for the slim chance he wants to stay longer… sounds super fun.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Post season Raptor defense rating for DM. Worse in playoffs than regular season. Hard to imagine.

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My favorite part of the build around Donovan is the wild assumption we will get better in playoff defense by swapping out Rudy and Mike for some wings… one of the main problems is still there… it’s not likely to change.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

What’s the best case realistic scenario for a Rudy trade?

Gary Trent Jr and OG Anunoby?

I think the Hawks would be a good target for Rudy -- Capella/Okongwu, Collins and a pick. I'm also intrigued by Jalen Johnson as a young prospect.

 

[LoPo]

The bending over backwards and catering to a guy that's never been an All-NBA player is wild to me. I get that it's hard to get star players in Utah, but the control that Smith, Wade and others have given to Donovan is a mistake IMO. We're not taking about a top 5 guy here, Donovan is a top 25 player, maybe top 20 at best.

We have yet to bend over backwards or cater to Donovan. That time might be coming.


Note: getting Paschall and not playing him is not catering to Don.

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[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the Hawks would be a good target for Rudy -- Capella/Okongwu, Collins and a pick. I'm also intrigued by Jalen Johnson as a young prospect.

I think they are probably the best match… I think they keep Okongwu… hopefully we could get Capela/Collins and Hurter or Bogey and their first this year but there is a chance they tell us nah. We all kinda think Capela can do some Rudy stuff at half price… they might think that too and look to upgrade in other ways.

I worry the suitors for Rudy won’t be as great as we think.

 

[homeytennis]

We have yet to bend over backwards or cater to Donovan. That time might be coming.


Note: getting Paschall and not playing him is not catering to Don.

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Talk to the head coach about that.

 

[Jingled]

We have yet to bend over backwards or cater to Donovan. That time might be coming.


Note: getting Paschall and not playing him is not catering to Don.

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Tim MacMahon, Andy Larsen, and many other reporters with inside information would beg to differ. Open up your eyes, the catering began long ago and is only going to get worse from here.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We have yet to bend over backwards or cater to Donovan. That time might be coming.


Note: getting Paschall and not playing him is not catering to Don.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

Getting Paschall was for Donovan. There was some other stuff in an espn article. That’s an acceptable level of catering… but it’s catering. We let Neto walk for nothing and he was Rudy’s homey… so just good for thought.

 

[LoPo]

Tim MacMahon, Andy Larsen, and many other reporters with inside information would beg to differ. Open up your eyes, the catering began long ago and is only going to get worse from here.

We have been over this?

How do we cater to Don? Who is the system built around? On both ends?

Insider information? So what - Don picks the food? What tangible thing have they done to cater to Don on the court?

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[LoPo]

Getting Paschall was for Donovan. There was some other stuff in an espn article. That’s an acceptable level of catering… but it’s catering. We let Neto walk for nothing and he was Rudy’s homey… so just good for thought.

You're so lame if you are saying Paschall vs Neto. Who cares? Paschall was a small ball C we had success with this postseason and he never played.

Neto was let go for money. It was stupid. He wasn't let go for Don. That train of thought is toxic and you're better than that.

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[Jingled]

We have been over this?

How do we cater to Don? Who is the system built around? On both ends?

Insider information? So what - Don picks the food? What tangible thing have they done to cater to Don on the court?

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

From Tim MacMahon's ESPN article. If you don't consider all of this catering to Donovan then I don't know what to say.

MITCHELL'S INFLUENCE WAS felt in a flurry of moves during the 2021 offseason, including one noteworthy departure and several additions. Mike Elliott, vice president of performance health care, "decided to pursue other opportunities outside the organization," the Jazz announced in a news release at the beginning of training camp.

Mitchell, team sources said, had lost confidence in Elliott during the recovery process after spraining his right ankle in mid-April 2021, an injury that sidelined the All-Star the final month of the regular season.

Mitchell then increasingly relied on the expertise of his personal athletic training staff, which was assembled by his representation at Creative Arts Agency and led by Miami-based David Alexander.

Mitchell became irate when Elliott determined before Utah's playoff opener that he wasn't ready to return, a decision made after Mitchell had been informed by another member of the team's medical staff that he was cleared and participated in the morning shootaround.

Sources say Mitchell, who aggravated the injury later in the first round and was hampered defensively due to his limited lateral quickness the rest of the playoffs, didn't demand Elliott's departure.

Smith, Wade and team executives had been alarmed by how the situation unfolded. And staffers who clash with stars -- and by extension the front office and ownership -- usually don't stick around.

Among the additions:

• Murphy Grant was hired by the Jazz as an athletic trainer dedicated solely to Mitchell. Grant, who had been a senior associate athletic director and athletics health care administrator at Wake Forest, interviewed initially with Mitchell, Mitchell's mother Nicole, and one of his agents.
• Irv Roland, a respected player development coach who worked with James Harden in Houston, was added to Snyder's coaching staff. Mitchell had often worked during offseasons with Roland, who has emerged as a strong voice for social justice causes in his native Oklahoma and around the nation in recent years. Roland works with Mitchell during pregame and individual sessions.
• Frank Donalds, Mitchell's personal security guard, was put on the Jazz's payroll, a perk that is common for NBA franchises to give high-profile stars.
• Mitchell strongly suggested the Jazz acquire forward Eric Paschall, his childhood friend. Paschall, who like Mitchell is represented by CAA agent Ty Sullivan, had been a first-team All-Rookie selection in 2019-20 but fell out of the Golden State Warriors' rotation in the latter half of last season. The Jazz ultimately traded a protected future second-round pick for Paschall.

A clear message had been sent: Mitchell's comfort in Utah was a top organizational priority.

 

[Jingled]

Getting Paschall was for Donovan. There was some other stuff in an espn article. That’s an acceptable level of catering… but it’s catering. We let Neto walk for nothing and he was Rudy’s homey… so just good for thought.

Jake Fischer mentioned on a podcast right before the trade deadline that he'd heard the Jazz were keeping Royce out of all trade discussion so as not to upset Donovan.

 

[LoPo]

From Tim MacMahon's ESPN article. If you don't consider all of this catering to Donovan then I don't know what to say.

The Elliott thing is speculation. And the official statement is Elliott left us.

So we hired his trainer and body guard? Does that impact the on court dynamics? We still run systems built around Rudy or Rudy like big men.

Paschall was brought in to be a small ball C. He was worth a shot since our big man system sucks in the playoffs. But it didn't work according to Quin so he didn't play. If he played and it didn't work, people could claim Don influence. He didn't play so no, it didn't impact the court.

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[NUMBERICA]

Tim McMahon today:

 

[KqWIN]

Couple things:

The reason you end up recycling a player like John Collins if the Donovan trade doesn’t work out is because at that point you are going to be forced to rebuild. Had you taken a pick heavy package then you likely got more draft value than you would trading Collins a year later. Unless you think you are holding on to him… which the upside is going from a 30 win team to a 35 win team?

If the plan is to blow it up it also helps you find more bidders for Rudy. Take Dallas for example they don’t have a great win now package they would offer but they could throw out like 3-4 unprotected firsts… that isn’t an acceptable package if you are keeping Donovan and trying to win. There isn’t going to be a lot of teams in that bidding pool… probably 5 teams. You may cut that in half if you aren’t considering the pick centered packages.

With regard to the other players… you can likely find draft or young player packages for Mike or Bogey… doing those while keeping Donovan signals that we aren’t trying to win now and increases the chances he bounces.

With regard to Donovan’s value… assume he’s healthy and plays like 1-2% better. Going from 3 years down to 2 years left on his deal will lower his value to some teams… you are in the contract range of “team X would be interested in trading for Donovan but only if he signs an extension… and his team has said no”. Less bidders means less offers… may not change his value and you may be fine… I will admit that.

But you also have to consider there may be a bidder that says “we can pay a premium to get Donovan now… he may love it here… but if he doesn’t we can move him in a year for 80-90% of what we paid.” So a team like Detroit might pony up a top 4 pick, Jerami Grant, Hayes, and another pick or two… but if there are only 2 years left they might not want to risk it.

Another consideration is injuries happen… there is a greater chance that he will suffer a terrible injury than the chance that we will be good enough to convince him to stay. If he suffers an ACL injury midway through the season who is ponying up a similar package.

Finally I am very much of the opinion that if we trade Rudy we are likely a lotto team next year… I think we’d be a play in team. So instead of getting a top 5 pick and having a chance at a true superstar… we’d be end of lottery. There is serious value there.

The reason I was confused with Collins is that I simply used him as a placeholder, I just think ATL is the most obvious destination. It didn't make sense to me why it was a downside that you had to trade him if Rudy was traded, but not if Don and Rudy were both traded. I suppose that trading/not trading Don affects the package you'd seek for Gobert, but I think you're going to get the worst value out of Gobert for seeking future facing assets because the only teams interested are less likely to have premium future assets. I don't really see it as a problem to trade a player like Collins again anyways. Is that a problem because our head decision maker is part time because he's too lazy? Really shouldn't be a problem and I also like the potential gains from building up youngish players like Collins versus taking distant first round picks from sure fire playoff teams. The expected value of having 3 future firsts from a Luka-Gobert Mavs team is probably like one rotation caliber player. That's just my opinion, but I know others see it the other way. For example, I hated the return the Rockets got for Harden....but to this day there are still a people whose opinion I respect that say the Rockets got away with robbery.

I also value the year of evaluation with Don+trade package no matter what kind of package that is. Trading Don is a pivotal decision, and I would rather see what we have before making that move. The downside of waiting means little compared to the information gathered. If wants to play here another year, I think he would welcome the addition of younger players and the idea that the team is building around his timeline. I don't think he's going to commit to this team, but also say we have to keep this creaky old roster around him. And like I said before, increasing the chances of Mitchell bouncing is not really a consideration I have. Him playing for the Jazz beyond the contract is not a consideration I'm making because it's so unlikely. I just think it's better to be patient with his trade rather than be in a rush to tank.

I can't dispute the fact that playing adds some degree of injury risk, but that's really not enough for me to say that Don has to be moved. If you're really that scared, you can SGA him or do the AD thing....but I would not let that fear get in the way of making the best decision. I think it's way more likely you get a better deal by waiting. Donovan can become a better player, and waiting for a better deal has proven beneficial in just about every situation where a big name player has been traded. If you commit to trading him this off-season, you're really limiting your options. If the situation comes up where Don demands that Rudy be traded immediately, for example, that is really bad for our expected return on Rudy. I wouldn't self inflict that detriment for Don as well.

As far as losing the top 5 pick this year....yeah that's valuable. But you also still have Donovan Mitchell as an asset and he's valuable. If you want to tank, there has to be a logical end to it all and it's the same regardless of when you start that process. You don't lose a year of tanking because you started it a year later. It's just delayed a year. I'm willing to give Don a year, overhauling most of the roster + Quin, and then reassessing the pieces from there. Hell, even if Don demands a trade after thinking about it in a week I wouldn't be in a rush to trade him this summer. At some point the Jazz are going to have to show some strength and play hard ball for once.

 

[KqWIN]

I think the Hawks would be a good target for Rudy -- Capella/Okongwu, Collins and a pick. I'm also intrigued by Jalen Johnson as a young prospect.

ATL is far and away the most likely destination IMO. There are a million ways that trade could get done because the Hawks have a good variety of assets. It would put the Hawks at the top of the East...basically switching places where the Jazz were, which is a desirable place if you build a balanced team that isn't soft.

I think getting Collins is a given....Collins seems like an unhappy camper. I hope the Jazz can get Okongwu or Hunter in addition.