Donovan refuses to say whether or not he wants to be in Utah moving forward

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

ATL is far and away the most likely destination IMO. There are a million ways that trade could get done because the Hawks have a good variety of assets. It would put the Hawks at the top of the East...basically switching places where the Jazz were, which is a desirable place if you build a balanced team that isn't soft.

I think getting Collins is a given....Collins seems like an unhappy camper. I hope the Jazz can get Okongwu or Hunter in addition.

I'm a believer in Jalen Johnson as a big, athletic wing who can play on the ball. I'd really like him to come back in the package. He's really young and a year or two away from being rotational, but he could be a game-changer if his offense comes together.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think the calculus on trading Rudy Gobert is actually quite simple. You treat him as an asset in your portfolio that has peaked in value and is likely to decline, so you'd like to parlay it into a package with more upside--both in terms of talent level and in terms of fit playing in a more versatile offense. You bet that you can get 70% of the production at 50% of the cost. You're looking for the next Jarrett Allen.

Meanwhile, you upgrade Royce O'Neale's position as a starter with a better/longer player. You move Mitchell to the 1 and get a bigger 3D guard at the 2.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

Trading Rudy, 30 years old, who can't shoot and with a defense who can only decline with ages coming is possible but i dont expect to get high return for it. Even Atlanta, i dont see them giving Capela who is younger.
Trading Don can bring more value but i doubt that he will be happy to move in a team where he can be only the 2nd or 3rd option. And i also doubt he can make much more money than now. Unless he require for a trade which is still possible.

I still think the best option are :
- To fire Quin, he is not a too level coach and we need to impulse new leadership.
- Trading some players who may have some value ( Conley, Bodga, Gay..) , wont be easy.
- Hiring a good PG and let Don focus on shooting and attacking the rim.

Let's see wht FO decide. But whatever the i=option they choose, the worst one will be do to nothing....

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You're so lame if you are saying Paschall vs Neto. Who cares? Paschall was a small ball C we had success with this postseason and he never played.

Neto was let go for money. It was stupid. He wasn't let go for Don. That train of thought is toxic and you're better than that.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

Wut? Gawd man calm down with your helicopter mom bull ****. Tim McMahon said Eric was brought in to help Donovan… we gave up a pick to bring him in… I said it was an acceptable level of catering.

I merely stated the Neto example to show that they haven’t done that in the past. It wasn’t a money thing… that is what they said cuz they dumb AF… he got a minimum deal and has been a more useful player than Paschall… just an example that this type of stuff is not normally done for players… even if it is minor… you can go back to making out with your poster of Donovan now.

 

[KqWIN]

I think the calculus on trading Rudy Gobert is actually quite simple. You treat him as an asset in your portfolio that has peaked in value and is likely to decline, so you'd like to parlay it into a package with more upside--both in terms of talent level and in terms of fit playing in a more versatile offense. You bet that you can get 70% of the production at 50% of the cost. You're looking for the next Jarrett Allen.

Meanwhile, you upgrade Royce O'Neale's position as a starter with a better/longer player. You move Mitchell to the 1 and get a bigger 3D guard at the 2.

It doesn't really work that way, and teams know this. I don't know what percent you think Capela is of Rudy, but the reality is that ATL is probably a top 5 defense with Rudy and a bottom 10 with Capela...Rudy is also a much better offensive player, That difference takes ATL out of the play in zone and puts them firmly in #1 seed territory. Even if Rudy gets paid double what Capela does, the likelihood of of you getting another $17-$18M player that makes up the difference between Capela and Gobert is extremely unlikely. For example, John Collins is a good player and $20M is probably a fair contract. But Rudy is going to win so man more games for you than those two combined. This, of course, is without mentioning that the cap isn't static, it's dynamic. If the Jazz replace Rudy with a player that costs half as less, they don't necessarily get to use the other half on another player. Even if they could, it's not making up the difference between Rudy and Capela. That's why the Jazz should demand a lot more than Capela+Collins and they will get more. Like I said, teams know this. Two nickels is not worth a dime in this league.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The reason I was confused with Collins is that I simply used him as a placeholder, I just think ATL is the most obvious destination. It didn't make sense to me why it was a downside that you had to trade him if Rudy was traded, but not if Don and Rudy were both traded. I suppose that trading/not trading Don affects the package you'd seek for Gobert, but I think you're going to get the worst value out of Gobert for seeking future facing assets because the only teams interested are less likely to have premium future assets. I don't really see it as a problem to trade a player like Collins again anyways. Is that a problem because our head decision maker is part time because he's too lazy? Really shouldn't be a problem and I also like the potential gains from building up youngish players like Collins versus taking distant first round picks from sure fire playoff teams. The expected value of having 3 future firsts from a Luka-Gobert Mavs team is probably like one rotation caliber player. That's just my opinion, but I know others see it the other way. For example, I hated the return the Rockets got for Harden....but to this day there are still a people whose opinion I respect that say the Rockets got away with robbery.

I also value the year of evaluation with Don+trade package no matter what kind of package that is. Trading Don is a pivotal decision, and I would rather see what we have before making that move. The downside of waiting means little compared to the information gathered. If wants to play here another year, I think he would welcome the addition of younger players and the idea that the team is building around his timeline. I don't think he's going to commit to this team, but also say we have to keep this creaky old roster around him. And like I said before, increasing the chances of Mitchell bouncing is not really a consideration I have. Him playing for the Jazz beyond the contract is not a consideration I'm making because it's so unlikely. I just think it's better to be patient with his trade rather than be in a rush to tank.

I can't dispute the fact that playing adds some degree of injury risk, but that's really not enough for me to say that Don has to be moved. If you're really that scared, you can SGA him or do the AD thing....but I would not let that fear get in the way of making the best decision. I think it's way more likely you get a better deal by waiting. Donovan can become a better player, and waiting for a better deal has proven beneficial in just about every situation where a big name player has been traded. If you commit to trading him this off-season, you're really limiting your options. If the situation comes up where Don demands that Rudy be traded immediately, for example, that is really bad for our expected return on Rudy. I wouldn't self inflict that detriment for Don as well.

As far as losing the top 5 pick this year....yeah that's valuable. But you also still have Donovan Mitchell as an asset and he's valuable. If you want to tank, there has to be a logical end to it all and it's the same regardless of when you start that process. You don't lose a year of tanking because you started it a year later. It's just delayed a year. I'm willing to give Don a year, overhauling most of the roster + Quin, and then reassessing the pieces from there. Hell, even if Don demands a trade after thinking about it in a week I wouldn't be in a rush to trade him this summer. At some point the Jazz are going to have to show some strength and play hard ball for once.

WTF man… you make it like I’m going to force a trade no matter what… if the offers aren’t good you don’t do it… why would they be better in a year? If you need to play him and wait that’s fine but that’s not the evaluation the front office is making… they are going to operate under the assumption they can keep him. And all the
moves will be made with the goal of “we gotta keep Donovan!” The info gathered this year means absolutely ****ing nothing if you are trading him in a year… which you say is likely the outcome!!! How useful is that info if he’s gone… we’ve gathered info for 5 years.

If you wait you actually start to force yourself into a corner because people know the clock is ticking… what if the offers aren’t good then? Wait until he has one more year… THATS TWO YEARS OF SUPER VALUABLE INFO!!!! Maybe we can trade that info for a top 5 pick!!!!

Trading the pieces like Collins later or Hierter or whoever… they might have more value… but generally selling off pieces nets less value when sold individually than a star. Hardens deal was bad because they slightly split the baby trying to be competitive… instead of taking more picks or younger players they took a broken Oladipo on an expiring… whoops.

There are plenty of other trades like the AD trade and the PG trade that included picks everyone assumed would be late firsts and both are in the lotto… folks assumed the Brooklyn picks would be late firsts and they became Brown and Tatum. Doesn’t always turn out that way but get 3
1sts and 2 pick swaps and the Dallas package might be okayish. We are assuming Atlanta and Charlotte have interest… what if they don’t have a ton of interest? What if it’s Capela and Collins and nothing else? Toronto giving us something good… we gonna trade him in conference?

Look I get the wait it out model if you think you can convince Don to stay 3-4 years… I get if you think waiting is okay too… which I think it is… but to think there isn’t some serious opportunity cost risk is unrealistic.

The 12 months of rumors and reports will be super fun as well… this team responds really well to that stuff. I just wouldn’t do it but to each their own.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It doesn't really work that way, and teams know this. I don't know what percent you think Capela is of Rudy, but the reality is that ATL is probably a top 5 defense with Rudy and a bottom 10 with Capela...Rudy is also a much better offensive player, That difference takes ATL out of the play in zone and puts them firmly in #1 seed territory. Even if Rudy gets paid double what Capela does, the likelihood of of you getting another $17-$18M player that makes up the difference between Capela and Gobert is extremely unlikely. For example, John Collins is a good player and $20M is probably a fair contract. But Rudy is going to win so man more games for you than those two combined. This, of course, is without mentioning that the cap isn't static, it's dynamic. If the Jazz replace Rudy with a player that costs half as less, they don't necessarily get to use the other half on another player. Even if they could, it's not making up the difference between Rudy and Capela. That's why the Jazz should demand a lot more than Capela+Collins and they will get more. Like I said, teams know this. Two nickels is not worth a dime in this league.

They also know that centers and players with huge contracts are harder to move and have more limited markets… so they could tell us to take a walk. We definitely won’t get Hunter…

If a Rudy trade happens we may be somewhat shocked at the return.

 

[KqWIN]

WTF man… you make it like I’m going to force a trade no matter what… if the offers aren’t good you don’t do it… why would they be better in a year? If you need to play him and wait that’s fine but that’s not the evaluation the front office is making… they are going to operate under the assumption they can keep him. And all the
moves will be made with the goal of “we gotta keep Donovan!” The info gathered this year means absolutely ****ing nothing if you are trading him in a year… which you say is likely the outcome!!! How useful is that info if he’s gone… we’ve gathered info for 5 years.

If you wait you actually start to force yourself into a corner because people know the clock is ticking… what if the offers aren’t good then? Wait until he has one more year… THATS TWO YEARS OF SUPER VALUABLE INFO!!!! Maybe we can trade that info for a top 5 pick!!!!

Trading the pieces like Collins later or Hierter or whoever… they might have more value… but generally selling off pieces nets less value when sold individually than a star. Hardens deal was bad because they slightly split the baby trying to be competitive… instead of taking more picks or younger players they took a broken Oladipo on an expiring… whoops.

There are plenty of other trades like the AD trade and the PG trade that included picks everyone assumed would be late firsts and both are in the lotto… folks assumed the Brooklyn picks would be late firsts and they became Brown and Tatum. Doesn’t always turn out that way but get 3
1sts and 2 pick swaps and the Dallas package might be okayish. We are assuming Atlanta and Charlotte have interest… what if they don’t have a ton of interest? What if it’s Capela and Collins and nothing else? Toronto giving us something good… we gonna trade him in conference?

Look I get the wait it out model if you think you can convince Don to stay 3-4 years… I get if you think waiting is okay too… which I think it is… but to think there isn’t some serious opportunity cost risk is unrealistic.

The 12 months of rumors and reports will be super fun as well… this team responds really well to that stuff. I just wouldn’t do it but to each their own.

I mean, am I wrong that you put a priority on tanking Donovan so we can tank? I don't see urgency in trading Don or urgency in tanking. I don't fear a drop in Don's value, and the tanking option is literally always present for every franchise at every point in their history. Why would his value go up? That's obvious and I've already stated this. Donovan could get better, or teams can fold the longer you wait and you receive a better offer.

The Rockets did not take a worse trade to stay competitive. If they wanted to remain completive, they would have taken Ben Simmons instead of Oladipo and a boat load of picks/pick swaps. They even went as far as to decline on taking Allen and Lavert so they could get more picks. I really don't know what to say here except that this assertion is hysterical. The Rockets had no hopes of staying competitive and obviously didn't have plans to be competitive anytime soon.

If no one wants Gobert, it doesn't really have any bearing on the Mitchell decision. I mentioned ATL package 1)because it's actually a realistic trade partner and 2) because I think they have assets to provide the best value. I didn't mention them because it keeps us semi competitive. I simply think you take the best package, and simply don't believe the picks package from DAL with Luka and Rudy locked up is a good package. Maybe that's the best you get, but again if that's all you get it doesn't really effect the Mitchell decision too much. If Rudy's trade value is low, that effects all trades in any direction.

As far as gathering information, obviously I'm talking about the assets and players we'd be acquiring and not the one's we'd be trading out. I really thought that was obvious. If you want trade for a good young player, you might want to know how that works out before you make the Donovan trade. I expect a complete overhaul no matter what, and I think it would be interesting to see Don play with a bunch of fresh faces. Do I think it will work out great? Probably not. I think the most likely scenario is that we're not that good and Don demands out anyways. I've never hid from this and have acknowledged this possibility several times over. But it's definitely worth a look. I mean....we just saw how this play out a few years ago. It was good that we didn't trade away Rudy right away because we lucked out with Mitchell. That lead to a golden championship window that we just happened to squander. If you hold onto Don and wait it out, you're not tied down to finding the next Donovan. You can always pivot to tanking, you cannot pivot back to having Donovan Mitchell on your team.

I just don't see the large opportunity cost in running with Don+new additions for a year. If we tank now versus in one year, I don't really see the difference except that we can plan on getting out of the tank one year later. Not a big deal to me, but I do understand the appeal of wanting the tanking team. It's very comfortable to be a die hard fan of a tanking team.

 

[MT Steve]

If we tank now versus in one year, I don't really see the difference except that we can plan on getting out of the tank one year later. Not a big deal to me, but I do understand the appeal of wanting the tanking team. It's very comfortable to be a die hard fan of a tanking team.

We have our 2023 pick but not our 2024 pick.

 

[KqWIN]

They also know that centers and players with huge contracts are harder to move and have more limited markets… so they could tell us to take a walk. We definitely won’t get Hunter…

If a Rudy trade happens we may be somewhat shocked at the return.

It could be tough, but the general idea of 70% of the production for 50% of the cost isn't a real one. That's not how it plays out in reality and teams know this. No one is looking at JC and saying he's 60% of Mitchell but 40% of the cost. Trade value does not work that way.

 

[KqWIN]

We have our 2023 pick but not our 2024 pick.

2024 is protected 1-10. Waiting one year might actually be more beneficial because protections are going to be extinguished after 2026. If you're planning on being bad for 3 years consecutively, it's better to do so 2024-2026 than 2023-2025.

 

[LoPo]

2024 is protected 1-10. Waiting one year might actually be more beneficial because protections are going to be extinguished after 2026. If you're planning on being bad for 3 years consecutively, it's better to do so 2024-2026 than 2023-2025.

You have made some really good points in your last few posts on this thread. Everybody should take the time to read them.

This has been a really good discussion from both sides really. I think most of us, mainly myself definitely included, need to set emotions aside and think of it like a business decision.



Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We have our 2023 pick but not our 2024 pick.

2023 is also a very good draft and the reality is that you might need to be involved in a few lotteries to get the guy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

2024 is protected 1-10. Waiting one year might actually be more beneficial because protections are going to be extinguished after 2026. If you're planning on being bad for 3 years consecutively, it's better to do so 2024-2026 than 2023-2025.

Only top 8 protected in 2026. If your top end talent hasn’t pulled you out of the mud by then you have probably effed up. Especially under your 15 year info gathering plan.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean, am I wrong that you put a priority on tanking Donovan so we can tank? I don't see urgency in trading Don or urgency in tanking. I don't fear a drop in Don's value, and the tanking option is literally always present for every franchise at every point in their history. Why would his value go up? That's obvious and I've already stated this. Donovan could get better, or teams can fold the longer you wait and you receive a better offer.

The Rockets did not take a worse trade to stay competitive. If they wanted to remain completive, they would have taken Ben Simmons instead of Oladipo and a boat load of picks/pick swaps. They even went as far as to decline on taking Allen and Lavert so they could get more picks. I really don't know what to say here except that this assertion is hysterical. The Rockets had no hopes of staying competitive and obviously didn't have plans to be competitive anytime soon.

If no one wants Gobert, it doesn't really have any bearing on the Mitchell decision. I mentioned ATL package 1)because it's actually a realistic trade partner and 2) because I think they have assets to provide the best value. I didn't mention them because it keeps us semi competitive. I simply think you take the best package, and simply don't believe the picks package from DAL with Luka and Rudy locked up is a good package. Maybe that's the best you get, but again if that's all you get it doesn't really effect the Mitchell decision too much. If Rudy's trade value is low, that effects all trades in any direction.

As far as gathering information, obviously I'm talking about the assets and players we'd be acquiring and not the one's we'd be trading out. I really thought that was obvious. If you want trade for a good young player, you might want to know how that works out before you make the Donovan trade. I expect a complete overhaul no matter what, and I think it would be interesting to see Don play with a bunch of fresh faces. Do I think it will work out great? Probably not. I think the most likely scenario is that we're not that good and Don demands out anyways. I've never hid from this and have acknowledged this possibility several times over. But it's definitely worth a look. I mean....we just saw how this play out a few years ago. It was good that we didn't trade away Rudy right away because we lucked out with Mitchell. That lead to a golden championship window that we just happened to squander. If you hold onto Don and wait it out, you're not tied down to finding the next Donovan. You can always pivot to tanking, you cannot pivot back to having Donovan Mitchell on your team.

I just don't see the large opportunity cost in running with Don+new additions for a year. If we tank now versus in one year, I don't really see the difference except that we can plan on getting out of the tank one year later. Not a big deal to me, but I do understand the appeal of wanting the tanking team. It's very comfortable to be a die hard fan of a tanking team.

The reason they didn’t do the Ben Simmons deal had nothing to do with the trade return… if you don’t know why they didn’t do that deal you are a moron.

The oladipo deal was done in part for salary flexibility but there was also talk they were trying to figure out how to be competitive. They didn’t take Allen because they already had Wood. They honestly didn’t get a great return imo… and part of the reason was they were backed into a corner and Harden demanded a trade and he only had a year and a half on his deal… I imagine they’d have done a whole lot better had they traded him the year prior but sure.

Again… for the 10th time we don’t have to trade him now… I would see what the offers are and if it is 100%+ of what you can get next year I move him now. His value will not go up… he will have 33% less time on his deal. He’d have to get a whole hell of a lot better to make up that delta… and why would he take this massive leap now? It’s pretty rare.

Why do we want to gather info on young vets with Donovan… when he’s out on a year? How useful is that info? Most of the guys we’d get in the win now mode are pretty much known commodities.

It’s one thing to be on the @LoPo corner where you are trying to keep him for a few more years and convince him to stay… it’s another to say we should trade him this year just do it next year when he surely asks out. Like wut? Okay… makes sense… teams definitely won’t low ball us then and that year of Donovan rumors will be so damned fun… we will have less pressure to do a deal the and more time to wait it out for the best return.

The reasons to keep Donovan one year and try are primarily business reason that line Ryans pockets and I’m good not doing that.

 

[LoPo]

@Handlogten's Heros

I'm fine trading Donovan in a year if that's what's best for the franchise.

I just don't see any reason to trade him this summer unless he wants go. Don has literally been in Rudy's shadow his entire time here. Our roster doesn't compliment Don or Rudy all that well, but I think from a business sense and a play style sense, it's worth it for the franchise to give Don a chance as the team focus on the court even if just for a year.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[KqWIN]

The reason they didn’t do the Ben Simmons deal had nothing to do with the trade return… if you don’t know why they didn’t do that deal you are a moron.

The oladipo deal was done in part for salary flexibility but there was also talk they were trying to figure out how to be competitive. They didn’t take Allen because they already had Wood. They honestly didn’t get a great return imo… and part of the reason was they were backed into a corner and Harden demanded a trade and he only had a year and a half on his deal… I imagine they’d have done a whole lot better had they traded him the year prior but sure.

Again… for the 10th time we don’t have to trade him now… I would see what the offers are and if it is 100%+ of what you can get next year I move him now. His value will not go up… he will have 33% less time on his deal. He’d have to get a whole hell of a lot better to make up that delta… and why would he take this massive leap now? It’s pretty rare.

Why do we want to gather info on young vets with Donovan… when he’s out on a year? How useful is that info? Most of the guys we’d get in the win now mode are pretty much known commodities.

It’s one thing to be on the @LoPo corner where you are trying to keep him for a few more years and convince him to stay… it’s another to say we should trade him this year just do it next year when he surely asks out. Like wut? Okay… makes sense… teams definitely won’t low ball us then and that year of Donovan rumors will be so damned fun… we will have less pressure to do a deal the and more time to wait it out for the best return.

The reasons to keep Donovan one year and try are primarily business reason that line Ryans pockets and I’m good not doing that.

And there weren't concern's about Oldaipo's ability to keep the Rockets competitive? Come on now. That trade had nothing to do with staying competitive. Please be charitable in this discussion, that trade package was as future facing as possible. There are zero people who believe that trade was made to stay competitive. Especially not in the Rockets organization. 4 future FRP, 3 pick swaps, and Oldapio is not a splitting the difference between being competitive and tanking lmao.

We don't have to trade him now? I completely agree. If that's how you feel, we're on board. We don't need to trade him now and we don't have to tank right now. There shouldn't be urgency to trade Don because the benefits of trading Don are still there if you keep him, and the risk of his value dropping is extremely low. Even when players adamantly and publicly want to be traded it has benefited teams to wait. There should be no rush to tank as there are benefits to waiting. I have a much higher priority on waiting and being patient with the Donovan situation than hurrying in the tank. Don is the guy you tank for. As long as he wants to be here you keep him here. I think his value is the same. There is a low chance he develops further, even lower chance that his value drops.

If those young players work out, maybe it does keep Don around a couple more years. I had no delusions that he will play here beyond this contract, but he's on a long term contract. I would say that it's most likely that we don't do well with those pieces and Mitchell wants to leave soon, but I'm willing to give it a shot and see what we're left with after the overhaul. Worst case scenario he leaves in one year and then you start tanking. No big deal.

If we hit on another cornerstone piece and he still wants to leave, you might be looking for a different type of trade. If John Collins or whoever turns out to be really freaking good and Don still wants out. You can trade Don for another good player instead of trading him for pure picks and then having to trade your other cornerstone because you only have one. Of course it's beneficial to see how those pieces play out. Please do not keep confusing the new pieces with our existing pieces. Once again, I thought this was obvious. But when I say that it's good to evaluate I'm talking about evaluating the new pieces.

The reasons for tanking immediately are still there if you keep Don. The reason for keeping Don are not just monetary. The last 3 years were the best championship window we've had/will have for a very long time. Would have not even had a chance to get going had we traded Rudy immediately.

Only top 8 protected in 2026. If your top end talent hasn’t pulled you out of the mud by then you have probably effed up. Especially under your 15 year info gathering plan.

Great, so if you successfully pulled out of the mud by then (not a guarantee even if you land a big fish) you lose that pick. You're a big proponent of having to "stay down" for long enough....but to your point you can't be down there forever. It has to end at some point, so what's the balance there? 3 years? If it's exactly 3 years, you keep your pick if its 24-26 and lose a pick if it's 23-25. If it's not 3 years, then you still don't lose anything by waiting. No downside to waiting a year other than you waited a year to tank.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And there weren't concern's about Oldaipo's ability to keep the Rockets competitive? Come on now. That trade had nothing to do with staying competitive. Please be charitable in this discussion, that trade package was as future facing as possible. There are zero people who believe that trade was made to stay competitive. Especially not in the Rockets organization. 4 future FRP, 3 pick swaps, and Oldapio is not a splitting the difference between being competitive and tanking lmao.

We don't have to trade him now? I completely agree. If that's how you feel, we're on board. We don't need to trade him now and we don't have to tank right now. There shouldn't be urgency to trade Don because the benefits of trading Don are still there if you keep him, and the risk of his value dropping is extremely low. Even when players adamantly and publicly want to be traded it has benefited teams to wait. There should be no rush to tank as there are benefits to waiting. I have a much higher priority on waiting and being patient with the Donovan situation than hurrying in the tank. Don is the guy you tank for. As long as he wants to be here you keep him here. I think his value is the same. There is a low chance he develops further, even lower chance that his value drops.

If those young players work out, maybe it does keep Don around a couple more years. I had no delusions that he will play here beyond this contract, but he's on a long term contract. I would say that it's most likely that we don't do well with those pieces and Mitchell wants to leave soon, but I'm willing to give it a shot and see what we're left with after the overhaul. Worst case scenario he leaves in one year and then you start tanking. No big deal.

If we hit on another cornerstone piece and he still wants to leave, you might be looking for a different type of trade. If John Collins or whoever turns out to be really freaking good and Don still wants out. You can trade Don for another good player instead of trading him for pure picks and then having to trade your other cornerstone because you only have one. Of course it's beneficial to see how those pieces play out. Please do not keep confusing the new pieces with our existing pieces. Once again, I thought this was obvious. But when I say that it's good to evaluate I'm talking about evaluating the new pieces.

The reasons for tanking immediately are still there if you keep Don. The reason for keeping Don are not just monetary. The last 3 years were the best championship window we've had/will have for a very long time. Would have not even had a chance to get going had we traded Rudy immediately.



Great, so if you successfully pulled out of the mud by then (not a guarantee even if you land a big fish) you lose that pick. You're a big proponent of having to "stay down" for long enough....but to your point you can't be down there forever. It has to end at some point, so what's the balance there? 3 years? If it's exactly 3 years, you keep your pick if its 24-26 and lose a pick if it's 23-25. If it's not 3 years, then you still don't lose anything by waiting. No downside to waiting a year other than you waited a year to tank.

Only stay down until the young talent pulls you up… been clear on that… teams get in trouble cutting off their future assets for a good player that doesn’t have the same timeline or limits their ceiling… the Kings are masters of this.

You are exaggerating the chance that one of the guys we get in a win now trad will become a corner piece… John Collins is a prime example… hasn’t really shown he’s anything more than a good starter but he dunks real good and had a solid playoff so he’s viewed as having some great upside. He plays with a guy who is a much better passer than anyone on or projected to be on our roster… it’s more likely he has less value than more in a year… just by being the same player his value declines because that wishful thinking upside shrinks.

You are also really downplaying the chance that Donovan’s value declines and maybe it takes a catastrophic decline. What are the chances he has a year long injury at some point in the season? I’d say like 3-5% on the low end… and his value goes down in half? More probably.

There is also the chance he has a similar season to this year… but that we win a whole lot less and the view becomes he’s an “empty calorie” guy. That he’s Zach Lavine before he started winning a little. There are also starting to be some rumors/smoke that he is a handful off the court… take it for what it’s worth and a lot of guys are a handful.

He also has gotten slightly better each year… what if his shooting dips a bit in a new system under a new coach… now what.

I simplify my approach with a one liner “ trade both or trade neither” but there are caveats to that of course. I think they are likely trading Rudy almost no matter what… we are in a bit of a corner and that seems to be where this is headed. If we do that and then can get a 100% of what we can get next year for Donovan I’d likely do it… I believe the extra year on the deal does matter… the view he still hasn’t tapped his full potential is baked in to his current value and will disappear when he is essentially the same player on a less good team… so I think we actually could find we will get 110% or 120% in value and may get a godfather 150% type offer.

I think some of these huge draft pick offers are also going to start looking quite bad for the teams that traded the picks and teams will get gunshy doing those types of deals… NO deal for AD is starting to look pretty bad for the Lakers (even though the got a title). Clips deal for PG starts to look worse and worse as those close picks were supposed to be late 20s and they already will get a lotto pick… the Brooklyn picks now look like they could be much more juicy than originally anticipated… nba trade value of picks seems to shift like crazy… used to be over valued and never change hands… now teams will give away their control of their draft picks for 5+ years if they think they have an okay shot at getting in the title contention mix. Maybe those views don’t change…

So there are a lot of things that can bother the downside that you are dismissing… it’s similar to the black swan theory on the economy… you can’t pinpoint the one thing that will cause a crash and their individual chances are low but collectively they add up to be real… and just cause you can’t see the black swan doesn’t mean it’s not there… if conditions are right anyone of these “outlier” issues hits and your return. The downside risk is so much more likely than the upside opportunity.

The info gathering on new young players is also more likely in a scenario where we aren’t trying to maximize wins… it isn’t dependent on Donovan… if we trade Donovan then traded for Collins he’d likely have more opportunities to increase his value and numbers as well.

I’m good here… my view is it’s better to move on from both or keep ‘em both and build that way… I think it has a lot of merit. You want to keep Donovan and wait a year… fine.

 

[Sean]

The man went and cried in the locker room after giving minimal effort the entire series lmao. He wants everything handed to him.

Rudy cried?

 

[Sean]

I think it's hilarious this post's headline is a complete lie and some dumb ****s are still acting like it's real. Mitchell literally said he wanted to remain in Utah but the John Hinkley-like posters here are still complaining. It's cognitive dissonance at its finest.

I wonder how some of you even function in the real world.