Is there any source you know to get this kind of like odds for all teams etc?
Draft Lottery
- Thread starter crater77
- Start date
Is there any source you know to get this kind of like odds for all teams etc?
Weezur
Well-Known Member
wiki, but you gotta add up the %'s that each team 8-14 has of moving to top 3.
If a team 8-14 moves to top 3, then pick 7 moves back to 8 and we get the pick.
Plus subtract out the total possibilities of GSW themselves moving up.
Wikipedia's got a nice summary table. It's about half way down the page, here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
If my math's right, which it's probably not, we have a 19.5% chance of one of the teams jumping into the top 3, ahead of the Warriors, thus bumping the Warriors back. I did not count the currently slated Raptors, sitting at #8, because their odds of jumping ahead of them and into the top 3 are the same as the Warriors themselves of jumping into the 3 so they essentially negate each other. That said, the math gets more complicated than that because multiple teams from 9-14 could jump, so those odds probably are a bit better than just 19.5%.
Use this one, which is specific to this year's draft lottery (it changes slightly each time due to ties): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NBA_Draft
Scroll down to the draft lottery section then add up the odds that GSW or Utah lands in 8th, 9th or 10th. It's .253 + .021 + .000 = .274. That means a 27.4% that one or more teams leapfrog GSW and the Jazz get the pick.
There's no need to add up anything related to the other teams.
Scroll down to the draft lottery section then add up the odds that GSW or Utah lands in 8th, 9th or 10th. It's .253 + .021 + .000 = .274. That means a 27.4% that one or more teams leapfrog GSW and the Jazz get the pick.
There's no need to add up anything related to the other teams.