Risk adjusting Dante Exum
I think you may have misinterpreted what people are saying. Its "if he proved he could consistently compete in the NCAA up to his upside potential, he would have been #1" Implied in this is "if he competes in the NCAA and fails due to higher competition, then he is not even a lottery pick" The uncertainty is around which of these two you believe. Therefore he is somewhere in between (risk-adjusted pick, for you quants out there).
1) Exum I have not seen enough of him, but I always hear if he played in the NCAA he would be #1. If that's true then you take him # 1
I think you may have misinterpreted what people are saying. Its "if he proved he could consistently compete in the NCAA up to his upside potential, he would have been #1" Implied in this is "if he competes in the NCAA and fails due to higher competition, then he is not even a lottery pick" The uncertainty is around which of these two you believe. Therefore he is somewhere in between (risk-adjusted pick, for you quants out there).