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Following potential 2014 draftees

mct said:
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
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I think you overestimate the influence of media on the draft process.
If you ask for it, I can take a look back at the last 5-6 drafts and look how deep in terms of stars they were. But I'm very sure it fluctuates heavily from year to year.
This year's drop off in talent is pretty low until 9. It's just a question of readyness and exposure what you can see from the outside.
Everyone takes a stand and discusses usage of players and interprets some ******** into it. Vonleh not being the focal point for Indiana can have so many different reasons.
Just a lot of stuff to go through and not go cray about details.

I also feel like Cavs looking at Embiid is typical smokescreen.
Look at the last 4 drafts. Only 1 pick(Irving) was a no brainer and was anticipated. Thompson at 4 was a surprise. Waiters at 4 as well. Bennett at 1 was a huge surprise. This year they'll prolly keep their secrets as well. Will be interesting on draft night. A lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they took Aaron Gordon given their recent drafts ;)
 
BTP said:
I think you overestimate the influence of media on the draft process.
If you ask for it, I can take a look back at the last 5-6 drafts and look how deep in terms of stars they were. But I'm very sure it fluctuates heavily from year to year.
This year's drop off in talent is pretty low until 9. It's just a question of readyness and exposure what you can see from the outside.
Everyone takes a stand and discusses usage of players and interprets some ******** into it. Vonleh not being the focal point for Indiana can have so many different reasons.
Just a lot of stuff to go through and not go cray about details.

I also feel like Cavs looking at Embiid is typical smokescreen.
Look at the last 4 drafts. Only 1 pick(Irving) was a no brainer and was anticipated. Thompson at 4 was a surprise. Waiters at 4 as well. Bennett at 1 was a huge surprise. This year they'll prolly keep their secrets as well. Will be interesting on draft night. A lot of options and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they took Aaron Gordon given their recent drafts ;)
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I don't think its the media so much as the phenomenon of hype. It happens everywhere. It's human nature. For example, the Harry Potter books are amazing, but are they orders of magnitute more entertaining than the next most popular fantasy series?

With the NBA draft it's funny how just being in the conversation with another player allows them to share each other's hype. But if you're a tier below, the hype transfer is severed. Whenever I hear the phrase "x-player draft," I know something is fishy. Past two-player drafts (human nature's favorite; we love rivalries!): Rose/Beasley, Wall/Turner, Irving/Williams. Notice a trend? Man those teams must have felt lucky getting the second pick in a two-player draft.

I remember the whining on here when the Jazz got third pick in 2011, just missing out on the clear-cut top two. Based on the tiers it was really no better than the eighth pick. No one knew who we were going to go with. It was kind of a bummer at the time, but looking back we dodged a bullet. No team could have resisted the hype and picked anyone but Derrick Williams.

If the hype stays the way it is now, the same thing is bound to happen with the fourth pick. Orlando will have very little choice but to take the player that falls to them. Not saying this player will bust, but it's important to question why the top four are so special because there's a lot more to the cognitive algebra that put them there than simply production * potential.
 
mct said:
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
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I get your point but do you really think the national media or other GMs read this board to get the pulse of Jazz nation. It isn't just Jazz fans who have been saying that there is drop off, the scouts and national media have been saying it. We can't "trick" people into thinking it is better than the #4 pick. However, I still think the Jazz can pick a player who has just as much potential as some of the top 4 picks. There isn't a sure thing in this draft even with all the hype. Every player has holes in their games.
 
cowhide said:
I get your point but do you really think the national media or other GMs read this board to get the pulse of Jazz nation. It isn't just Jazz fans who have been saying that there is drop off, the scouts and national media have been saying it. We can't "trick" people into thinking it is better than the #4 pick. However, I still think the Jazz can pick a player who has just as much potential as some of the top 4 picks. There isn't a sure thing in this draft even with all the hype. Every player has holes in their games.
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Yeah, we definitely can't trick people by posting how great it is to be fifth a million times on this forum. First of all we're a bunch of nobodies. Secondly, it would just look sarcastic.

I'm just trying to resist the flawed narrative, and I think a little less of anyone who perpetuates it, whether it's on here or in the media or wherever.
 
I am not as big a fan of Parker as a lot of you guys are. If he is in bad shape I even like him less. He is a tweener on defense. I don't know if he is quick enough on defense to guard 3's and strong enough to guard 4s. I hope this rumor is just that a rumor since we haven't really seen him since the end of NCAA. There is no excuse if he is out of shape, I would not draft him anywhere if he isn't in shape.
 
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mct said:
Obviously picking earlier is better, but can someone show me evidence that a real dropoff occurs after the four most hyped prospects?

One of the most fascinating things about the draft is the phenomenon by which tiers start to develop in the minds of the fans, media, and probably even some team execs. Pretty much the only reason the fourth pick is so vastly more valuable than the fifth pick is because people keep saying it is.

Smart teams understand how this idiotic narrative drives the value of picks. I don't blame Dennis Lindsey for saying how ecstatic he is about the fifth pick. We should all be telling that story. The more everyone joins in on the 'fifth pick in a four-player draft' pity party actually just makes the the pick worse. It's the ammo other teams are going to use when they make lowball offers for it. It's the star treatment our rookie is not going to get when he steps on the court for the first time.

I appreciate everyone on this forum that admits they don't know with 100% certainty which prospects are a tier above others.

I'm depressed about yesterday, and I'm still trying to parse out how much of this disappointment comes from missing out on a clearly superior player or just a more hyped player. I don't know.
Click to expand...

Where are you seeing a dropoff at then?
 
NCJazz said:
A real possibility if he commits to coming over next year. If he stays in and is present at the draft that could be a real sign he wants to come over.
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If Saric will play next year in the NBA, I would be thrilled with him at 5.

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Smart would give the Jazz a big boost to their perimeter defense, and he could bully his way into the lane on offense. I think he makes the Jazz better.

Vonleh is really interesting if his inside and outside skills are legit.

At least two out of Exum, Vonleh and Smart will be there for the Jazz to choose from. I also do think Randle could go as high as 3 or 4 if Philly thinks he's a better talent than Exum.
 
BTW, I don't think the Jazz will trade down. The market is soft with Boston, Lakers and Sacramento potentially willing to trade their picks.

The talent in this draft is still very good in the 4 - 6 range and doesn't justify trading down or out unless something really sweet is coming back.
 
things that are going for the jazz

- Parker's weight
- embiids back
- who wants to play in Milwaukee
- vonlehs measurements at the combine
- lack of knowledge about exum
- randles ability and final 4 run
- teams needs in the top 4
- agents that won't want their players on certain teams

things that need to happen before the draft
- hire a coach
- decide on identity (part of hiring a coach)
- convince Parker, embiid and exum to work out for the jazz.
- drop rumors that those 3 had bad works outs
- drop rumors that the jazz are in love with vonleh, randle, smart or Gordon
- smokescreens are going to be key
 
didnt expect to see hot daughters at the lottery last night

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Anjali is fine as **** goddamn
 
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