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Following potential 2015 draftees

Cy said:
Replacing Burke this early would be short-sighted. Let's see how he improves next year. He will have less pressure on him with the return of Burks taking pressure off him. The 2nd unit Burke plays with is very offensively limited now that Hood is a starter.
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He puts pressure on himself. Even with Hayward on the court Burke constantly requests a clear out so he can try and do it alone.
 
Layne Vashro, who has some respect among analytical types as a draft-pick modeler has his as-of-now forecasts up and available here.

I'm not endorsing or criticizing his modeling. I just thought it might add a bit to the conversation. In my checking of previous years' results, he's had successes and failures, but there seems to be enough there to at least make it a point of consideration.

There's more to his forecasts that you can look at yourself, but one of the things he does is give odds of players reaching various levels in their top NBA season: bust, bench, starter, stud, star (based on win shares). If he turns out to be accurate, it's good we're in the Western Conference. The likelihood of getting a decent contributor drops off a cliff after #13. Here's his odds:

Okafor -- bust 2%, bench 9%, starter 26%, stud 23%, star 40%

Russell -- bust 1%, bench 1%, starter 24%, stud 33%, star 42%

Mudiay -- bust 0%, bench 1%, starter 27%, stud 34%, star 38%

Towns -- bust 1%, bench 6%, starter 31%, stud 34%, star 28%

Johnson -- bust 3%, bench 11%, starter 40%, stud 20%, star 27%

Hezonja -- bust 8%, bench 4%, starter 63%, stud 12%, star 13%

Porzingis -- bust 73%, bench 5%, starter 19%, stud 2%, star 0%

WCS -- bust 3%, bench 9%, starter 29%, stud 46%, star 13%

Oubre -- bust 1%, bench 12%, starter 56%, stud 18%, star 13%

Turner -- bust 20%, bench 18%, starter 38%, stud 15%, star 10%

Looney -- bust 13%, bench 23%, starter 44%, stud 17%, star 3%

Winslow -- bust 35%, bench 18%, starter 35%, stud 8%, star 4%

Kaminsky -- bust 23%, bench 30%, starter 33%, stud 12%, star 2%


Only one other player (Christian Wood) is rated more than a 26% chance to be better than a bust or a bench player in their best year. Here's the probability he has for bust/bench outcomes respectively for some of the players that may be of interest here:

Booker -- 90/4
LeVert -- 65/16
Harrell -- 67/23
Portis -- 65/23
J. Anderson -- 75/12
Grant -- 72/19
Lyles -- 77/15
D. Wright -- 50/25
Dunn -- 49/37
 
In fairness to Porzingis, though Vashro has had both some spectacular successes and spectacular failures with his model in relation to past draft classes (amid a much larger number of reasonable results), the modeling seems much more likely to wrongly predict bust from foreign players than from U.S. players; it's surely more difficult to correctly calibrate the non-US data. It spectacularly missed on both Rudy and Giannis, for example.

It's also notable in comparing this year's predictions to many of the other years, that this year's class seems to have fewer bust candidates among the lottery, though it turns the other direction with a vengeance after the lottery.
 
And among Vashro's recent tweets, he says that if Tomic joins the Jazz, the numbers would expect him to have a Mirotic-level impact next year.
 
idiot said:
Layne Vashro, who has some respect among analytical types as a draft-pick modeler has his as-of-now forecasts up and available here.

I'm not endorsing or criticizing his modeling. I just thought it might add a bit to the conversation. In my checking of previous years' results, he's had successes and failures, but there seems to be enough there to at least make it a point of consideration.

There's more to his forecasts that you can look at yourself, but one of the things he does is give odds of players reaching various levels in their top NBA season: bust, bench, starter, stud, star (based on win shares). If he turns out to be accurate, it's good we're in the Western Conference. The likelihood of getting a decent contributor drops off a cliff after #13. Here's his odds:

Okafor -- bust 2%, bench 9%, starter 26%, stud 23%, star 40%

Russell -- bust 1%, bench 1%, starter 24%, stud 33%, star 42%

Mudiay -- bust 0%, bench 1%, starter 27%, stud 34%, star 38%

Towns -- bust 1%, bench 6%, starter 31%, stud 34%, star 28%

Johnson -- bust 3%, bench 11%, starter 40%, stud 20%, star 27%

Hezonja -- bust 8%, bench 4%, starter 63%, stud 12%, star 13%

Porzingis -- bust 73%, bench 5%, starter 19%, stud 2%, star 0%

WCS -- bust 3%, bench 9%, starter 29%, stud 46%, star 13%

Oubre -- bust 1%, bench 12%, starter 56%, stud 18%, star 13%

Turner -- bust 20%, bench 18%, starter 38%, stud 15%, star 10%

Looney -- bust 13%, bench 23%, starter 44%, stud 17%, star 3%

Winslow -- bust 35%, bench 18%, starter 35%, stud 8%, star 4%

Kaminsky -- bust 23%, bench 30%, starter 33%, stud 12%, star 2%


Only one other player (Christian Wood) is rated more than a 26% chance to be better than a bust or a bench player in their best year. Here's the probability he has for bust/bench outcomes respectively for some of the players that may be of interest here:

Booker -- 90/4
LeVert -- 65/16
Harrell -- 67/23
Portis -- 65/23
J. Anderson -- 75/12
Grant -- 72/19
Lyles -- 77/15
D. Wright -- 50/25
Dunn -- 49/37
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His methodology is what exactly?
 
Catchall said:
His methodology is what exactly?
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Apparently he uses some sort of regression model to determine how the player will perform in the NBA using age, minutes played, height, weight, and box score stats.


I suspect this is why Grant's number is very bad, he is very OLD.. LOL ..
 
idiot said:
Layne Vashro, who has some respect among analytical types as a draft-pick modeler has his as-of-now forecasts up and available here.

I'm not endorsing or criticizing his modeling. I just thought it might add a bit to the conversation. In my checking of previous years' results, he's had successes and failures, but there seems to be enough there to at least make it a point of consideration.

There's more to his forecasts that you can look at yourself, but one of the things he does is give odds of players reaching various levels in their top NBA season: bust, bench, starter, stud, star (based on win shares). If he turns out to be accurate, it's good we're in the Western Conference. The likelihood of getting a decent contributor drops off a cliff after #13. Here's his odds:

Okafor -- bust 2%, bench 9%, starter 26%, stud 23%, star 40%

Russell -- bust 1%, bench 1%, starter 24%, stud 33%, star 42%

Mudiay -- bust 0%, bench 1%, starter 27%, stud 34%, star 38%

Towns -- bust 1%, bench 6%, starter 31%, stud 34%, star 28%

Johnson -- bust 3%, bench 11%, starter 40%, stud 20%, star 27%

Hezonja -- bust 8%, bench 4%, starter 63%, stud 12%, star 13%

Porzingis -- bust 73%, bench 5%, starter 19%, stud 2%, star 0%

WCS -- bust 3%, bench 9%, starter 29%, stud 46%, star 13%

Oubre -- bust 1%, bench 12%, starter 56%, stud 18%, star 13%

Turner -- bust 20%, bench 18%, starter 38%, stud 15%, star 10%

Looney -- bust 13%, bench 23%, starter 44%, stud 17%, star 3%

Winslow -- bust 35%, bench 18%, starter 35%, stud 8%, star 4%

Kaminsky -- bust 23%, bench 30%, starter 33%, stud 12%, star 2%


Only one other player (Christian Wood) is rated more than a 26% chance to be better than a bust or a bench player in their best year. Here's the probability he has for bust/bench outcomes respectively for some of the players that may be of interest here:

Booker -- 90/4
LeVert -- 65/16
Harrell -- 67/23
Portis -- 65/23
J. Anderson -- 75/12
Grant -- 72/19
Lyles -- 77/15
D. Wright -- 50/25
Dunn -- 49/37
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Thank you, very interesting. I've picked out just this year's prospects and looking only at EWP (i.e., the regression model), not HUM which takes into account mock drafts, etc.


Ranking by EWP they are:

Screen_Shot_2015_03_14_at_9_32_10_pm.png


Dunn pretty close to Mudiay ... could he be the steal of the draft?
 
ONE LOVE said:
Well our offense isn't PG heavy anyway. Hayward, Burks, Ingle and more recently Hood had been handling the ball quite a bit and initiating the offense.

I think a PG in the mould of Exum is a good idea, i.e., a PG who can defend, likes to pass, and can knock down open 3's. Kris Dunn seems to tick all the boxes. He's also averaging 7.5 assists? That's a Jazz type player.
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He dude I have in mind can't defend. But he'd be awesome on the Jazz. Calderon.
 
BTP said:
He dude I have in mind can't defend. But he'd be awesome on the Jazz. Calderon.
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I think he'd be pretty good for us. Good shooter, steady vet, he also is a pig farmer so there is that.

NY would have to give up an asset to get us to take his contract though. Not sure what they have left. Phil has talked about how they aren't going to build through the draft but rather free agency. Clearing his salary would be helpful to that cause.
 
idiot said:
Layne Vashro, who has some respect among analytical types as a draft-pick modeler has his as-of-now forecasts up and available here.

I'm not endorsing or criticizing his modeling. I just thought it might add a bit to the conversation. In my checking of previous years' results, he's had successes and failures, but there seems to be enough there to at least make it a point of consideration.

There's more to his forecasts that you can look at yourself, but one of the things he does is give odds of players reaching various levels in their top NBA season: bust, bench, starter, stud, star (based on win shares). If he turns out to be accurate, it's good we're in the Western Conference. The likelihood of getting a decent contributor drops off a cliff after #13. Here's his odds:

Okafor -- bust 2%, bench 9%, starter 26%, stud 23%, star 40%

Russell -- bust 1%, bench 1%, starter 24%, stud 33%, star 42%

Mudiay -- bust 0%, bench 1%, starter 27%, stud 34%, star 38%

Towns -- bust 1%, bench 6%, starter 31%, stud 34%, star 28%

Johnson -- bust 3%, bench 11%, starter 40%, stud 20%, star 27%

Hezonja -- bust 8%, bench 4%, starter 63%, stud 12%, star 13%

Porzingis -- bust 73%, bench 5%, starter 19%, stud 2%, star 0%

WCS -- bust 3%, bench 9%, starter 29%, stud 46%, star 13%

Oubre -- bust 1%, bench 12%, starter 56%, stud 18%, star 13%

Turner -- bust 20%, bench 18%, starter 38%, stud 15%, star 10%

Looney -- bust 13%, bench 23%, starter 44%, stud 17%, star 3%

Winslow -- bust 35%, bench 18%, starter 35%, stud 8%, star 4%

Kaminsky -- bust 23%, bench 30%, starter 33%, stud 12%, star 2%


Only one other player (Christian Wood) is rated more than a 26% chance to be better than a bust or a bench player in their best year. Here's the probability he has for bust/bench outcomes respectively for some of the players that may be of interest here:

Booker -- 90/4
LeVert -- 65/16
Harrell -- 67/23
Portis -- 65/23
J. Anderson -- 75/12
Grant -- 72/19
Lyles -- 77/15
D. Wright -- 50/25
Dunn -- 49/37
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This is really interesting. I'll have to check out this guys site. Hopefully he has some historical data available to see hits and misses. Kaminsky still ranks well even though he is a senior.
 
d
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think he'd be pretty good for us. Good shooter, steady vet, he also is a pig farmer so there is that.

NY would have to give up an asset to get us to take his contract though. Not sure what they have left. Phil has talked about how they aren't going to build through the draft but rather free agency. Clearing his salary would be helpful to that cause.
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we give them Burke and they give us Calderon and their unprotected pick in 2017
 
Booker in a major slump. Could really slide. Last 6 weeks he is shooting 29% from 3.
If he doesn't pick it up he may not even declare, imo.
 
Unreal. Hottest player in the SEC tourney has been KT Harrell and Calipari has put WCS on him (he's a SG) and he hasn't made a shot/can't get open. 0-5
 
Wow, the NBA draft... What a crapshoot! These are my top ten over the last 5 years. The takeaway message here is we are probably overlooking a lot of good players and the players we've discussed are going to largely bust. My hope is we just draft a good player and try not to let hype overrule our judgement! Let me know what y'all think.

2010 Draft
1. Paul George (10)
2. John Wall (1)
3. Demarcus Cousins (5)
4. Gordon Hayward (9)
5. Derrick Favors (3)
6. Greg Monroe (7)
7. Eric Bledsoe (18)
8. Hassan Whiteside (33)
9. Larry Sanders (15)
10. Lance Stephenson (40)

2011 Draft
1. Kawhi Leonard (15)
2. Kyrie Irving (1)
3. Klay Thompson (11)
4. Jimmy Butler (30)
5. Nikola Vucevic (16)
6. Markieff Morris (13)
7. Brandon Knight (8)
8. Nikola Mirotic (23)
9. Chandler Parsons (38)
10. Isaiah Thomas (60)

2012 Draft
1. Anthony Davis (1)
2. Damian Lillard (6)
3. Andre Drummond (9)
4. Draymond Green (35)
5. Bradley Beal (3)
6. Khris Middleton (39)
7. Harrison Barnes (7)
8. Jared Sullinger (21)
9. Tyler Zeller (17)
10. John Henson (14)

2013 Draft
1. Rudy Gobert (27)
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
3. Victor Oladipo (2)
4. Nerlens Noel (6)
5. Steven Adams (12)
6. Dennis Schroder (17)
7. Mason Plumlee (22)
8. Alex Len (5)
9. Kelly Olynyk (13)
10. Shabazz Muhammad (14)

2014 Draft (Highly Subjective)
1. Andrew Wiggins (1)
2. Dante Exum (5)
3. Aaron Gordon (4)
4. Dario Saric (12)
5. Marcus Smart (6)
6. Elfrid Payton (10)
8. Jabari Parker (2)
9. Jusuf Nurkic (16)
10. Jordan Clarkson (46)
 
Cy said:
Also helps that one of Auburn's starting big men was suspended for the game.
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It helps WCS guard Harrell? Stop being dumb.

I never once said anything about UK beating Auburn.. that would be dumb.. Auburn is clearly outmatched in a huge way.
It's okay to give props to WCS for his defensive ability.

It's also okay to kepp making an *** of yourself and me call you out. It's become somewhat of a sport within itself at Jazzfanz.
 
some highlights from Dunn vs Villanova:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoM9mlbiQiY
 
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