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Following potential 2015 draftees

seattlejazzfan said:
Sometimes it is nice to be reminded what a moronic blowhard Locke is.
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Handlogten's Heros said:
So Locke doesn't like Frank and it's fairly clear. He made a comment about him during the tournament that was kind of snarky as well. Yet at the end of the podcast he say we might consider trading for old man Channing frye and his 8 Mill per year contract. Says we could trade a second round pick for it. Frye had some rather serious health problems and is right around the area of his career where he's going to take a sharp down turn. It seems really weird that Locke would doubt Frank but want Frye... After all Frye was a 4 year guy... Who wasn't as dominant as Frank was this last year.

I think we are all reading into lockes comments too much. DL also mentioned maybe we don't want any more development projects right now... Frank would be a lot closer to being a contributor than the other players we are considering.
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I don't want to get into this too much because some people get bent out of whack over it, but every once in a while Locke will say something where he exposes himself as being kind of clueless. Honestly, he's pretty good at reading stats and picking out interesting trends/patterns, but IMO his understanding of the game and even the Jazz in particular is pretty limited.
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Now, let the tomatoes fly, Locke lovers. <ducks>
 
I don't really care for Locke's opinion either. All the ridiculously useless analytics, heavy breathing, bad takes, long pauses, random changes of thought.....It's so hard to listen to.
 
And before the Lockites show up, I'd just like to say that I can appreciate any fan that is as passionate about the Jazz as Locke is. Just the same, it doesn't change my opinion that there are quite a few posters on JF that have a better understanding of the game.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
So Locke doesn't like Frank and it's fairly clear. He made a comment about him during the tournament that was kind of snarky as well. Yet at the end of the podcast he say we might consider trading for old man Channing frye and his 8 Mill per year contract. Says we could trade a second round pick for it. Frye had some rather serious health problems and is right around the area of his career where he's going to take a sharp down turn. It seems really weird that Locke would doubt Frank but want Frye... After all Frye was a 4 year guy... Who wasn't as dominant as Frank was this last year.

I think we are all reading into lockes comments too much. DL also mentioned maybe we don't want any more development projects right now... Frank would be a lot closer to being a contributor than the other players we are considering.
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I think the choice of a 2nd rounder for Frye vs a 12 pick for Kaminsky is pretty clear. I also think Locke has more access and knows more than anyone on this board save pkm and cy. The only complaint i have on him is he is on the jazz payroll, so you can get some not unbiased analysis at times. I think this is on purpose though because he cares about the franchise so much. Im just trying to say hes self aware, well connected and smart.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
So Locke doesn't like Frank and it's fairly clear. He made a comment about him during the tournament that was kind of snarky as well. Yet at the end of the podcast he say we might consider trading for old man Channing frye and his 8 Mill per year contract. Says we could trade a second round pick for it. Frye had some rather serious health problems and is right around the area of his career where he's going to take a sharp down turn. It seems really weird that Locke would doubt Frank but want Frye... After all Frye was a 4 year guy... Who wasn't as dominant as Frank was this last year.

I think we are all reading into lockes comments too much. DL also mentioned maybe we don't want any more development projects right now... Frank would be a lot closer to being a contributor than the other players we are considering.
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There is a difference between drafting a guy and forgoing other players and trading for a player.

Locke doesn't hate Kaminksy, he just doesn't like drafting him in the lottery.
 
How good a year is it to be drafting 12th? Hard to predict with certainty, but at least one measure I checked suggests it could be a very good year.

According to Layne Vashro's models (if anyone has access to multiple-year data from other modelers, please chime in), the average EWP (his main measure) score for his 12th-rated prospect over the last 10 years has been 4.1. This year his 12th-rated prospect's EWP is 5.7 (which equates to his 5th-rated EWP prospect in an average year). For the 15th-rated prospect, the 10 year average is 3.8, but this year it's 4.8. No other year in the last 10 has been close to as high for the 12th or 15th ranked prospects as this year.

To put it another way, we have realistic chances of drafting the #25 (Johnson), #26 (Looney), #28 (Kaminsky), #40 (Oubre), #48 (Turner), or #61 (RHJ) rated EWP player over the last 10 years. So just divide the 10-year ranking by 10 to get the ranking they would be in an average year. (This is not even to mention Wright or Jones, who are also in this range).

Of the players whose EWP ranked higher than Stanley Johnson on this 10 year list:
10 have become very good players (I'm including those who would fit in this category if not injured)
2 have become what I'd consider "meh" players (decent contributors, but nothing more)
2 have busted
9 are too soon to make that determination
(looks like I may have missed one player, but I'm not going back to check -- this quick approximation is probably sufficient)

Of the players whose EWP scores ranked between Johnson and RHJ's:
14 players became very good
8 players became "meh"
1 busted
13 are too early to call
(The division between very good and meh was a little tougher in this group, with players like Harrison Barnes, Tristan Thompson, Ty Lawson, Enes Kanter, and Jonas Valenciunus sitting near the dividing line)

So if Vashro's measure allows for reliable year-to-year comparisons, there's reason to be quite optimistic about what's available to us at #12 this year.
 
Carbon13 said:
I also think Locke has more access and knows more than anyone on this board save pkm and cy.
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news; But all 3 are just biased homers, relying on varying degrees of sensationalism and selective memory...





(let that waft for a moment)







Cy had Wiggins rated as what again?? the 4th or 5th best player in the draft?? he posted ad nauseam about why he preferred 'above-average athlete' Aaron Gordon's "intangibles", no??? I specifically said that if you take a look at the 3pt shooting slump from Aaron Gordon in conference play, it reveals a trend that's probably unsustainable. lo and behold his 3pt shooting fell off a cliff the 2nd half of the year, connecting at under a 25% clip.


A player this board was almost unanimously sour on, Jerami Grant, was someone early in the process that I thought could do most everything Gordon could.. looking back was that far off??? I also had Jerami in the 1st round when many lost faith.. (some of you may remember I actually repped Jerian Grant last year too, I posted the "55 seconds of Jerian Grant" vid multiple times and said this guy has great upside for a player projected in the 50's..)


Jordan Adams is a better prospect than Zach LaVine? who's too skinny and not worthy of a 2nd round pick, right??? yall griefed the **** out of any LaVine supporter for months straight and even held on like Givony, til the last minute to hedge on Zach. Meanwhile I posted that he looked like a lottery pick exactly 1 day after his 21pt showing vs nevada, back when Zach was Givony's 73rd rated freshman in the class..

Cy echo'd what many were already saying about Elfrid Payton, but made a point to repeat that everyone was sleeping on his teammate Shawn Long, who he thought was a sleeper 1st round pick... It should be noted Orlando improved a whopping 2 wins in the hyper-competitive eastern conference with these gamechangers.

PKM fell head over heels for Cleanthony Early.. But at least had Embiid #1, who's the only other player that should've even been in discussion for the top pick.

If you throw enough **** at a wall, some of it will stick.

BTW when i stopped being a Knicks fan all those years ago, I thought they wouldn't be able to compete with LeBron, who has now won the east every year since, Ive also had my $$ on his team to win the east every year since...
 
Anyways, whats the consensus around here on the black John Turturro - Cameron Payne??

I think he's a better prospect than Trey, for sure his feel for the game is superior. his shooting mechanics are the closest you will find to Steph's in this draft, super quick release. I got a chance to see his last few full games because I follow this type of ****, and was very impressed with the way he interprets the defense, definite starter potential IMO, I'd take him over Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant.
 
PointGod_AlecBurks said:
Anyways, whats the consensus around here on the black John Turturro - Cameron Payne??

I think he's a better prospect than Trey, for sure his feel for the game is superior. his shooting mechanics are the closest you will find to Steph's in this draft, super quick release. I got a chance to see his last few full games because I follow this type of ****, and was very impressed with the way he interprets the defense, definite starter potential IMO, I'd take him over Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant.
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I agree, but doubt we take a PG at 12.
 
PointGod_AlecBurks said:
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news; But all 3 are just biased homers, relying on varying degrees of sensationalism and selective memory...





(let that waft for a moment)







Cy had Wiggins rated as what again?? the 4th or 5th best player in the draft?? he posted ad nauseam about why he preferred 'above-average athlete' Aaron Gordon's "intangibles", no??? I specifically said that if you take a look at the 3pt shooting slump from Aaron Gordon in conference play, it reveals a trend that's probably unsustainable. lo and behold his 3pt shooting fell off a cliff the 2nd half of the year, connecting at under a 25% clip.


A player this board was almost unanimously sour on, Jerami Grant, was someone early in the process that I thought could do most everything Gordon could.. looking back was that far off??? I also had Jerami in the 1st round when many lost faith.. (some of you may remember I actually repped Jerian Grant last year too, I posted the "55 seconds of Jerian Grant" vid multiple times and said this guy has great upside for a player projected in the 50's..)


Jordan Adams is a better prospect than Zach LaVine? who's too skinny and not worthy of a 2nd round pick, right??? yall griefed the **** out of any LaVine supporter for months straight and even held on like Givony, til the last minute to hedge on Zach. Meanwhile I posted that he looked like a lottery pick exactly 1 day after his 21pt showing vs nevada, back when Zach was Givony's 73rd rated freshman in the class..

Cy echo'd what many were already saying about Elfrid Payton, but made a point to repeat that everyone was sleeping on his teammate Shawn Long, who he thought was a sleeper 1st round pick... It should be noted Orlando improved a whopping 2 wins in the hyper-competitive eastern conference with these gamechangers.

PKM fell head over heels for Cleanthony Early.. But at least had Embiid #1, who's the only other player that should've even been in discussion for the top pick.

If you throw enough **** at a wall, some of it will stick.

BTW when i stopped being a Knicks fan all those years ago, I thought they wouldn't be able to compete with LeBron, who has now won the east every year since, Ive also had my $$ on his team to win the east every year since...
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We've all had our bad moments. Alex Len ring a bell? I think everyone's opinion is worth something to the discussion and nobody will ever be right on every player.
 
There's no doubt some GMs will be inquiring about the #12. I wonder what offers DL will receive - you'd think there'd have to be some value there.
 
PointGod_AlecBurks said:
Anyways, whats the consensus around here on the black John Turturro - Cameron Payne??

I think he's a better prospect than Trey, for sure his feel for the game is superior. his shooting mechanics are the closest you will find to Steph's in this draft, super quick release. I got a chance to see his last few full games because I follow this type of ****, and was very impressed with the way he interprets the defense, definite starter potential IMO, I'd take him over Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant.
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I like Pain as well. However I also like Grant and Wright and we could trade back to get one of them. I think they are better fits as in my opinion think Exum is going to be a star once he matures and fills out physically. Wright and Grant are bigger and can guard sg's and fit into the team concept of defense. Defensively imagine wright and Exum as a defensive tandem. Wright might me the premier none big defender in the draft. On top of that we could get a third first rounder in 2017. I like the idea of three picks in the first round.
 
Or two picks in 16, 17, and 18. 6 firsts in three years. Obviously some of those would be used in trades. Gives DL lots of options for making the Jazz better and keep them relevant.
 
Jazzyy said:
What do you guys think of timothe luwawu as one of our seconded round picks?? He's got potential and is French so he can be friends with Rudy lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Not too much info on him. Very explosive, high risk, high reward. DX has us taking him at 42 probably as a draft and stasher. Not sure he lasts that long.
 
Frank dominated two of the best post defenders in the draft, including the one that people think will go top 10 because of his defensive ability and they question whether his offense will translate to the NBA? Cmon...
 
Carbon13 said:
I also think Locke has more access and knows more than anyone on this board save pkm and cy.
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I'd say there are at least a dozen people on this board who understand the game better than Locke. There are guys who haven't been around for a while like Kenwood and Billy Shelby that understand things with the CBA that Locke is clueless about. Just wait until the next article he writes on the offseason, where he exposes himself pretty badly. Like I said, Locke understands numbers and how certain patterns might affect things, but his overall knowledge of the game is limited. Of course, you have to have a good understanding of the game yourself to be able to pick up on that, so I understand why some people disagree.
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I do find it pretty humorous that Locke admits he hates the college game and doesn't watch it, and yet some people still believe he's the authority on all things b-ball. Looking at data can help you assess players, but I don't know how anyone can put too much faith in someone who doesn't watch the players.
 
Howard said:
Frank dominated two of the best post defenders in the draft, including the one that people think will go top 10 because of his defensive ability and they question whether his offense will translate to the NBA? Cmon...
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and those best post defenders were what 19 years old? Just because Kaminsky did well in college against players that had a huge age difference doesn't mean he's going to translate in the NBA. We've seen players that were great college players and then not work out in the NBA.
 
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