Following Potential 2020 draftees

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Anyone picked in the later portions of the draft is overlooked. It's not arguable lmao. You can create any narrative you want for why a player was overlooked.

Allen was overlooked because of his age. The same reason a guy like Jimmy Butler was overlooked.

Bradley was ranked super high by analytical models but overlooked because he isnt a clean fit in the modern NBA. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...north-carolina-center-tony-bradley-via-lakers

ESPN had him at 17% chance at being a starter in 5 years and 3% chance at being an All-Star with a 20% chance at being a rotation player.

Grayson Allen wasn't "overlooked." He was a low-ceiling prospect who was destined to become a third or fourth guard off the bench. He was drafted right where he should have been. In a re-draft today, he would get picked in the same draft tier.

Tony Bradley was drafted to be a backup center. He wasn't overlooked either, but another low-ceiling prospect drafted in his proper range. Whatever methodology ESPN used to quantify the idea that he has a 3% chance of becoming an All Star, the conclusion is the same. Bradley has almost no star potential.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Grayson Allen wasn't "overlooked." He was a low-ceiling prospect who was destined to become a third or fourth guard off the bench. He was drafted right where he should have been. In a re-draft today, he would get picked in the same draft tier.

Tony Bradley was drafted to be a backup center. He wasn't overlooked either, but another low-ceiling prospect drafted in his proper range. Whatever methodology ESPN used to quantify the idea that he has a 3% chance of becoming an All Star, the conclusion is the same. Bradley has almost no star potential.

You are just moving the goalpost to fit your moronic idea that teams have to a certain type of player at a certain draft spot. That's exactly what makes a ****** drafter ******, the inability to see all possibilities and get past internal bias.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Yes, everyone who gets drafted later is passed on for a reason.

Right. A few of the late picks have a high ceiling, while most of them don't. Simple concept. Not sure why this is difficult for you.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Right. A few of the late picks have a high ceiling, while most of them don't. Simple concept. Not sure why this is difficult for you.

Because the whole concept behind potential and ceilings is completely subjective. Just because you know less about a dude doesnt mean he has more potential, which is a concept people struggle to understand.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

You are just moving the goalpost to fit your moronic idea that teams have to a certain type of player at a certain draft spot. That's exactly what makes a ****** drafter ******, the inability to see all possibilities and get past internal bias.

Or you could call it player evaluation. Aleksej Pokusevski has the tools and potential to be an All NBA player. Jaden McDaniels has the tools and potential to be an All Star-caliber player. Xavier Tillman has the tools and potential to be a 3rd big off the bench.

So which player would you draft if you were the Jazz, you already have 9 rotation players, and you want to raise the ceiling of the team?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Or you could call it player evaluation. Aleksej Pokusevski has the tools and potential to be an All NBA player. Jaden McDaniels has the tools and potential to be an All Star-caliber player. Xavier Tillman has the tools and potential to be a 3rd big off the bench.

So which player would you draft if you were the Jazz, you already have 9 rotation players, and you want to raise the ceiling of the team?

Player evaluation isnt taking the most surface level aspects about a player and putting them into boxes.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And I'm drafting Jalen Harris at basically any point in the draft outside of Ball/Toppin/Hayes.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Player evaluation isnt taking the most surface level aspects about a player and putting them into boxes.

Part of it is.

Here are some 'boxes':
1) positional size
2) wingspan
3) footspeed
4) handspeed
5) lateral mobility/fluidity
6) free-throw percentage
7) steal rate (adjusted for level of competition)
8) assist rate (adjusted for level of competition)
9) rebound rate (adjusted for level of competition)
10) 3pt shooting percentage
And so on.

Player evaluators are judging players on these and other criteria. Most of the above are quantified.

Then there are some more qualitative criteria, like:
- attitude
- intelligence
- ability to take criticism
- work ethic/practice habits
- competitiveness
- likability

Etc.

I bet some teams are nerdy enough to select a handful of these criteria, weight them, and give the player a total score.

 

[SCS]

RJ Hampton is not gonna fall to 20 under any circumstances

I've heard he's higher on teams boards than he is on lot of mocks.

 

[SCS]

Anyone know when they do the tiebreaker coin flips? Same time as lottery?

 

[SCS]

It's kind of frustrating to evaluate Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams because of the way that Florida St plays. Offensively there's a lot of ball and player movement so the usage ends up distributed fairly evenly. There's not a lot of dribbling and self creation. Defensively they switch pretty much everything and the team defense on the whole is extremely strong.

So it leaves you with questions. Can they do more offensively than what they were able to show in that system? Did the strong team defense mask some individual liabilities? Etc

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

It's kind of frustrating to evaluate Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams because of the way that Florida St plays. Offensively there's a lot of ball and player movement so the usage ends up distributed fairly evenly. There's not a lot of dribbling and self creation. Defensively they switch pretty much everything and the team defense on the whole is extremely strong.

So it leaves you with questions. Can they do more offensively than what they were able to show in that system? Did the strong team defense mask some individual liabilities? Etc

You can look at Jonathan Isaac as a benchmark possibly. Either way, I'm pretty high on both Vassell and Williams. There's a reason FSU was a title contender this year.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Anyone know when they do the tiebreaker coin flips? Same time as lottery?

Normally it's a bit after, I think.

 

[SCS]

You can look at Jonathan Isaac as a benchmark possibly. Either way, I'm pretty high on both Vassell and Williams. There's a reason FSU was a title contender this year.

You can still evaluate. It's just a bit tougher than other situations. It's frustrating at times.

I like Vassell a ton. He's the only prospect in this class that I'm sold on as a legitimate 3&D player. I buy the shot. And I buy the team defense. The individual defense is a little more sketchy. He gets blown by at times but some of it could be a product of the scheme. He's gonna need to get stronger. Offensively I just wish we could have seen him handle the ball and create off of the bounce more because I believe that his ability or inability to create his own offense will decide how good he becomes. If he has the ability or the potential ability to score off of the bounce then his upside is tremendous.

I'm not as high on Patrick Williams as some. He's in the 20's on my board. He's a smart team defender. I really like the flashes he's shown as a passer. The touch on his shot is decent but he's got some mechanical problems that he'll need time to fix. I think that there is a base there for an NBA player. I just don't buy the upside that some see. The basis of the argument for his upside is usually based on the fact that he's young and he has a great body. Youth doesn't = potential. The positive thing about entering the NBA young is that you have more development time in the league. But a 23 year old guy can have more potential than an 18 year old. Because potential is more skill based than anything. It's a common draft error people make. People also fall in love with good body prospects all the time and several of those prospects fail. I also don't buy the ability that some think he has to guard 1-5. His hips are too tight and feet are too slow to guard down in any scenario other than an occasional switch. I think he'll guard 3's on occasion depending on matchup, maybe some small ball 5's, but he'll be guarding 4's more often than not. Overall I just don't think there's a lot you can count on with Williams and that's why I have him in the 20's. He hasn't shown wing skills, the shot needs a lot of work, he can pass but I question how often he'll be utilized as playmaker in the NBA, he's more of a solid team defender than a switchy lockdown guy and more of 4 defender than a wing defender, he doesn't rebound well. He's a project, not a bad one, but a project. If I had to project high end outcome I'd say it's starter/high rotation. Long way to go to get there though. Good chance he doesn't.

 

[homeytennis]

You can still evaluate. It's just a bit tougher than other situations. It's frustrating at times.

I like Vassell a ton. He's the only prospect in this class that I'm sold on as a legitimate 3&D player. I buy the shot. And I buy the team defense. The individual defense is a little more sketchy. He gets blown by at times but some of it could be a product of the scheme. He's gonna need to get stronger. Offensively I just wish we could have seen him handle the ball and create off of the bounce more because I believe that his ability or inability to create his own offense will decide how good he becomes. If he has the ability or the potential ability to score off of the bounce then his upside is tremendous.

I'm not as high on Patrick Williams as some. He's in the 20's on my board. He's a smart team defender. I really like the flashes he's shown as a passer. The touch on his shot is decent but he's got some mechanical problems that he'll need time to fix. I think that there is a base there for an NBA player. I just don't buy the upside that some see. The basis of the argument for his upside is usually based on the fact that he's young and he has a great body. Youth doesn't = potential. The positive thing about entering the NBA young is that you have more development time in the league. But a 23 year old guy can have more potential than an 18 year old. Because potential is more skill based than anything. It's a common draft error people make. People also fall in love with good body prospects all the time and several of those prospects fail. I also don't buy the ability that some think he has to guard 1-5. His hips are too tight and feet are too slow to guard down in any scenario other than an occasional switch. I think he'll guard 3's on occasion depending on matchup, maybe some small ball 5's, but he'll be guarding 4's more often than not. Overall I just don't think there's a lot you can count on with Williams and that's why I have him in the 20's. He hasn't shown wing skills, the shot needs a lot of work, he can pass but I question how often he'll be utilized as playmaker in the NBA, he's more of a solid team defender than a switchy lockdown guy and more of 4 defender than a wing defender, he doesn't rebound well. He's a project, not a bad one, but a project. If I had to project high end outcome I'd say it's starter/high rotation. Long way to go to get there though. Good chance he doesn't.

There might be some young veteran players available. I noticed the Bulls and their coach parted ways. A new coach may not want some of the Bulls younger players. I also assume Sacto will be making a coaching change as well so again young players may be available and have as much potential and ability as a 20s draft pick.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

There might be some young veteran players available. I noticed the Bulls and their coach parted ways. A new coach may not want some of the Bulls younger players. I also assume Sacto will be making a coaching change as well so again young players may be available and have as much potential and ability as a 20s draft pick.

There may be some possibility that the Jazz could trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic. That would give the Jazz the double-bogey. It would cost a player and a pick, at least.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

You can still evaluate. It's just a bit tougher than other situations. It's frustrating at times.

I like Vassell a ton. He's the only prospect in this class that I'm sold on as a legitimate 3&D player. I buy the shot. And I buy the team defense. The individual defense is a little more sketchy. He gets blown by at times but some of it could be a product of the scheme. He's gonna need to get stronger. Offensively I just wish we could have seen him handle the ball and create off of the bounce more because I believe that his ability or inability to create his own offense will decide how good he becomes. If he has the ability or the potential ability to score off of the bounce then his upside is tremendous.

I think Josh Green will work as a 3D wing. He needs to improve his shooting, but I think it will happen.

Patrick Williams has physical tools. He's got great measurables, he's athletic and he's strong. He can move defenders out the way, and he makes some impressive plays above the rim. That's pretty impressive for a guy that young. He's got a little more ability to play on the ball than he showed at FSU, but I wish he had more ball skills. I think he'll be a 3/4 combo, but his natural talent and his potential ceiling could be similar to Jimmy Butler.

 

[prodigy]

 

[whatthe]

I want Paul Reed. He may have sub-par 3 point percentage but I think there is something there. His free throw shot is decent. To me, the question is would he be better than Favors when shooting? I think he might be. Shoot from the corners on offense and help Gobert on defense... His defense looks too tantalizing to pass up.

 

[Game6Conley]

It's kind of frustrating to evaluate Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams because of the way that Florida St plays. Offensively there's a lot of ball and player movement so the usage ends up distributed fairly evenly. There's not a lot of dribbling and self creation. Defensively they switch pretty much everything and the team defense on the whole is extremely strong.

So it leaves you with questions. Can they do more offensively than what they were able to show in that system? Did the strong team defense mask some individual liabilities? Etc

TBF Patrick Williams looked like a possible 1st rd pick before he ever played a game at FSU..