Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[KqWIN]

I know you are going to hate this, but for me I feel pretty comfortable with keeping defense as a 90% subjective analysis. I feel like I'm keyed in enough to defense as something I really value that I've been pretty accurate in the past with which prospects are going to be good and bad defenders in the NBA. Yes there are many differences between the NCAA and the NBA when it comes to defense, but in general guys who care, have BBIQ, and the physical tools make good defenders in the NBA. Usually that stuff comes through in the film.

Personally, I think those things show through numbers more than they do through film. Maybe my opinion would change if I had infinite access and time to watch film, but I feel like I watch a decent amount of film and I'd rather start with numbers first and use film to confirm/reconsider/contextualize the numbers.

It's kind of hard to decouple the different forms of analysis though. We all have some amount film, numbers, and outside opinion baked into our opinion without even trying.

 

[jom2003]

Im not disagreeing about considering Yang at 21, but your qualifier makes no sense.

Like if Collins opt out and leave in FA then we ship Lauri to a contender, we are left with only Kessler & Filip in the front court. There's also Hendrix but yeah, we can use some Yang.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Like if Collins opt out and leave in FA then we ship Lauri to a contender, we are left with only Kessler & Filip in the front court. There's also Hendrix but yeah, we can use some Yang.

Only Kessler plays the same position as Yang...

 

[kcgar]

After thinking it through, I'm pretty convinced Philly is taking Edgecombe if they don't trade the pick. He rates too highly by all stat models and is way more ready to go right now than Ace or Tre or the other guys.



Why should Lauri get as much as Pascal Siakam got?

Make an argument as to why Lauri should match the Siakam return (2 so-so firsts and one bad first) let alone surpass it.

-Lauri is 6'11 that shoots the three well
-Beats Siakam is almost every stat category
-27 yrs old (Siakam was 29 when he was traded)
-This is subjective, but I think Lauri is a better player than Siakam. Siakam has had better players around him than Lauri has. Lauri would be even better with better teammates. The game plan against the Jazz is stop Lauri and you probably win.

There are probably other reasons too that I am not thinking of

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The other big can not guard Raynaud on the block at all

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

-Lauri is 6'11 that shoots the three well
-Beats Siakam is almost every stat category
-27 yrs old (Siakam was 29 when he was traded)
-This is subjective, but I think Lauri is a better player than Siakam. Siakam has had better players around him than Lauri has. Lauri would be even better with better teammates. The game plan against the Jazz is stop Lauri and you probably win.

There are probably other reasons to that I am not thinking of

Siakham also shut down a trade to the Kings by saying he would not re-sign there. So there were other better offers but contract status swayed the acquirer.

I don't think Lauri will have as much value as a year or two ago. I don't know that it will be such a huge difference that we are depressed about it.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Personally, I think those things show through numbers more than they do through film. Maybe my opinion would change if I had infinite access and time to watch film, but I feel like I watch a decent amount of film and I'd rather start with numbers first and use film to confirm/reconsider/contextualize the numbers.

It's kind of hard to decouple the different forms of analysis though. We all have some amount film, numbers, and outside opinion baked into our opinion without even trying.

Different strokes I guess, but I just feel like there is just so much context within a defensive possession that doesn't show up in the numbers.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

RAYNAUD DEEP RANGE

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Neoklis a great PNR pass then drains a 3

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Grant Nelson's 3 looks painful

 

[jom2003]

Only Kessler plays the same position as Yang...

If Yang can shoot, pass and run the floor, I don't see why he can't play the 4 like Sengun was playing for the Rockets. We can put out a 2 big or even a 3 big lineup any time when needed. Kessler a way better version of Steven Adams.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If Yang can shoot, pass and run the floor, I don't see why he can't play the 4 like Sengun was playing for the Rockets. We can put out a 2 big or even a 3 big lineup any time when needed. Kessler a way better version of Steven Adams.

Yeah, maybe you should just exit the conversation if you think Yang can play the 4.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Watching a little bit of Kon film right now. The Kon/Khaman PNR was a weapon for Duke. I'm not sure if Kon benefited more from Khaman or the other way around.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Raynaud cant miss

 

[KqWIN]

Different strokes I guess, but I just feel like there is just so much context within a defensive possession that doesn't show up in the numbers.

Sure, lots of problem with numbers and a lot of mistakes are made in interpreting them....but I also think that the defensive context is not great in college, you're limited in how much you can watch, and there's bias when we do watch. I would say that when the film disagrees with the numbers, I often side with the film more. So I don't know if that makes me a film guy. A lot of my initial opinion and baseline expectations is from the numbers, then there are other times where I feel like I just need 5 minutes to know a player is going to suck or be very good. Maybe it's just because I don't have the eye for it, but in general I trust my comfortability with the pros/cons of numbers analysis most to build that initial impression. From there, I'm comfortable with using the film to help me determine how accurately the numbers represent the player. Thankfully, we don't have live in a world where you have to rely on one or the other.

I also just generally have a disdain when told "watch the film" when I'm jeopardizing my WFH job everyday watching as many youtube videos at 1.5 speed as I can. Personal grievance lol.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1kmowg9/tahaad_pettiford_23_points_8_assists_in_nba/

 

[KqWIN]

Raynaud definitely moves really well.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Sure, lots of problem with numbers and a lot of mistakes are made in interpreting them....but I also think that the defensive context is not great in college, you're limited in how much you can watch, and there's bias when we do watch. I would say that when the film disagrees with the numbers, I often side with the film more. So I don't know if that makes me a film guy. A lot of my initial opinion and baseline expectations is from the numbers, then there are other times where I feel like I just need 5 minutes to know a player is going to suck or be very good. Maybe it's just because I don't have the eye for it, but in general I trust my comfortability with the pros/cons of numbers analysis most to build that initial impression. From there, I'm comfortable with using the film to help me determine how accurately the numbers represent the player. Thankfully, we don't have live in a world where you have to rely on one or the other.

I also just generally have a disdain when told "watch the film" when I'm jeopardizing my WFH job everyday watching as many youtube videos at 1.5 speed as I can. Personal grievance lol.

Makes sense, lol. FWIW, I don't think it takes a crazy amount of film to get a good idea on if a guy is a good defender or not. I guess when you are trying to get as granular as you are with the original post that got brought up it makes a difference though.

And maybe this thought could be true: It's easy/semi easy to see who are going to be good/average/bad defenders, but it's very difficult to distinguish between guys within those tiers.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Watching a little bit of Kon film right now. The Kon/Khaman PNR was a weapon for Duke. I'm not sure if Kon benefited more from Khaman or the other way around.

I'm having a hard time finding anything outside of the Kon/Khaman PNR that would lead me to believe that Kon can be a ball in hand guy in the NBA. Everything else is very basic connector type stuff.

I'll keep looking though.

 

[Basketball Novice]

If Yang can shoot, pass and run the floor, I don't see why he can't play the 4 like Sengun was playing for the Rockets. We can put out a 2 big or even a 3 big lineup any time when needed. Kessler a way better version of Steven Adams.

I am not sure myself but my impression is that Yang is a pure center type. There was an interesting conversation on a podcast where Draymond Green talked about sliding guys between the 5 and 4. He explained that the 4 and 5 are completely different positions that had their own ways of playing and that there was a misconception that you could just slide guys between those positions and be fine. It was one of the more informative takes I have heard from Green.

If I find the podcast episode, I will link it.

Its one of the concerns I have for a guy like Asa Newell. He plays like a pure center but I don't think that will be his position in the NBA. And can he play the 4? Maybe, maybe not.