I still need to wrap my head around the new lottery odds. When we talk about bottoming out, I probably still have some lingering emotional reactions from the older odds. It was such a dramatic change, but if that's been fully processed. Before the changes, I think bottoming was really important for getting #1. Nowadays, the incentives for bottoming out is different. It's more about your floor vs your ceiling....but even then, the EV draft position is very tightly packed.
For example, the difference between #5 and #1 in the lottery is about 9% to draft in the top 3 and 3.5% to draft in the top spot. Don't get me wrong, you still want those extra percentage points, but it's a MUCH smaller gap than before. That would have been 35% and 16.2% previously. The incentive to be at the very bottom has really diminished.
For example, the difference between #5 and #1 in the lottery is about 9% to draft in the top 3 and 3.5% to draft in the top spot. Don't get me wrong, you still want those extra percentage points, but it's a MUCH smaller gap than before. That would have been 35% and 16.2% previously. The incentive to be at the very bottom has really diminished.