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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

SoberasHotRod said:
I'm trending towards Jace as a top 10 pick, but the end of the Wisconsin game yesterday really highlighted some of his concerns. MSU was down a couple points and desperately needed a basket and Jace couldn't seperate in order to get a shot off. At times he couldn't even separate enough to get the ball.
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He looks small on an NCAA floor. He's going to look smaller in the NBA. He's skilled though. Looks a bit like Mike Conley.
 
idiot said:
This doesn't deserve it's own thread, but doesn't really fit with any of the threads, so maybe it's as good a place as any to put it:

I've mentioned in another thread that there seems to be movement toward convergence in the value of draft picks, especially compared to a generation ago. In other words, it's getting harder to predict where the top players are going to come from in the draft. (This is not to say that drafting later has the same odds for getting a strong player as drafting earlier; the odds are still best to draft early, of course. It's just that the difference between the kind of players you get drafting later compared to drafting earlier is narrowing, especially in recent years). The following graphs, which are based on small research projects I've done, provide evidence for this idea, I think.

The first shows what draft picks the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd All-NBA teams come from, on average. You'll see that there's a great narrowing in the last 10 years especially, with 1st-teamers coming from later and later in the draft. This year's 1st team could easily be as high as a 16.6 average.

The second chart shows the relative value of four first round picks, selected to best illustrate the trend (based on a blend of career win shares and VORP scores). Top picks have generally lost value over time, mid-round picks have kept their value somewhat, lower-round picks have increased their value. (In both graphs, lots of data smoothing has been employed to help highlight what seem to be real trends.)
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So much of a player's success depends upon how hard they work once they're in the league. The high draft picks generally have the most potential, but it's almost impossible to predict whether they'll put in the work to be great.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
He looks small on an NCAA floor. He's going to look smaller in the NBA. He's skilled though. Looks a bit like Mike Conley.
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I'm bad with player comps because they are all Jazz related, but he reminds me more of Donovan, just without the explosiveness.

The best Conley comp in this draft is Fland in my opinion.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm trending towards Jace as a top 10 pick, but the end of the Wisconsin game yesterday really highlighted some of his concerns. MSU was down a couple points and desperately needed a basket and Jace couldn't seperate in order to get a shot off. At times he couldn't even separate enough to get the ball.
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One thing I have noticed about Jace that concerns me is he has no right hand.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
So much of a player's success depends upon how hard they work once they're in the league. The high draft picks generally have the most potential, but it's almost impossible to predict whether they'll put in the work to be great.
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This is why bringing players in for a work out. Wasn't this also the reason gg Jackson dropped? Didn't he have some workout issues?
 
I have cooled quite a bit on Wolf but still would take him with the Timberwolves pick almost regardless of where it lands or whoever else is realistically on the board which should tell you how strongly I feel that that package of skill set and size is worth the swing with where the Jazz are at.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
So much of a player's success depends upon how hard they work once they're in the league. The high draft picks generally have the most potential, but it's almost impossible to predict whether they'll put in the work to be great.
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Yeah, spot on. And I think this is increasingly true (perhaps because of somewhat different skills emphasized in today's game compared to earlier eras, a more even pool of talent, or whatever else.)
 
Elizah Huge said:
I also think landing spot makes more of a difference than people think as well.
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I actually think this is a more important factor than working hard. At this level, I really don’t think it’s a matter of working harder to get to the next level. Sure, there are some guys who were naturally talented all this time and didn’t give their 100%, but almost every is working hard and it’s just a matter of 1) natural ability/potential to grow and 2) situation.

For example, one thing we all kinda know is that shooting is a big swing skill. I don’t really comes down to working hard. If everyone could just work their way into being a good NBA level shooter, everyone would.

So it’s not that working hard isn’t important, I think it’s just that a high level of work ethic is consistent across the board.
 
I’ve been one to stress that we need to be focused on BPA rather a certain type of player or position, and I’m not one of those guys who is obsessed with “winning culture”….but I think the Jazz are kind pushing the limits with our current team and staff. Our young players don’t play defense, our vets don’t play defense, it’s debatable how much our coach cares about defense. At someone point we have to go out of our way to address this problem. I don’t think the draft is often the place to address a specific need, but if we add another zero defense/all offense type of player the elephant in the room may become too much to ignore.
 
I think Nique Clifford of Colorado State is going to be a really good starter in the NBA for many years. He'd be a great pick in the 20-25 range with the T-wolves pick. Good offense and solid defense. 6'6" 200 lbs. Only real negative would be that he is a senior.
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