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For Blackham, re: Gasol

I

idiot

Well-Known Member
https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2012/12/4/3725250/pau-gasol-trade-scenarios-is-it-even-possible

The skinny: concludes that trading with Utah is the only realistic possibility for trading Gasol. It considers Millsap, Marvin & Raja for Gasol. (I don't know why it doesn't additionally consider Mo rather than Marvin.) It concludes Utah not likely to do the trade, as Jazz would have a new logjam of bigs and in any case would rather have Al around than Pau to mentor Favors and Kanter.

My thoughts, as someone who's advocated for pursuing Gasol in the past: Gasol for Millsap, Mo & Bell would be very interesting to me. But we'd have to be able to flip Al for a good, young PG, and I doubt that's possible. Also injury unknowns with Favors & Gasol scare me right now.
 
Blackham is me:) Blackham predicted the exact Deron Williams trade over a month before it happened (although I did think we would get the LAL pick NJ had). Blackham is a wicked smart basketball mind:). Kidding aside, I have thought and thought and thought about this trade like I did with the Deron one. On Real GM I have posted this on the Jazz board, Lakers Board, and Trade board. I originally posted this exact trade of Millsap/Marvin/Raja but I also like the one that swaps Mo perhaps more.

My basic assumptions are these: Gasol will return to all star level with a Jazz team that runs the plays and offense through him. He will at the very least be a huge asset as he reestablishes his trade value. I actually see him netting a top 5 pick if we want to flip him at the draft (although coupled with our GSW pick). Or we keep him and re up him for a 3/36M deal like Duncan/Garnett.

The other reason is although I like Mo, Al, Paul if any are your starters and they aren't paired with an all star you are a mediocre team. I want Pau because he prevents us from committing what I believe is franchise suicide... "Signing non All Star players to All Star money long term deals".

I am not saying the Jazz will do this, but I think they should. When Carmello was being talked about with New Jersey and he was waffling about going to NJ, I said the Jazz should swoop in and do that deal. The best deals are done 1 1/2 to 2 years in advance. The Deron deal is like that. Getting Favors at that point was perfect as well because the writing was on the wall that he would be great, but he had 2 years before he would really start to show it.

We don't want 4/$60M for Jefferson because we will then re up Favors/Hayward this year, and Kanter/Burks next and all our cap is gone and we are left with Al as our best player.... and if that is the case we will be mediocre. Same thing with resigning Mo who will be asking 3/$25M, and Paul who will be asking for 4/$40.

My plan: Paul/MO/Raja (although he will be bought out and picked up by LAL to save them money)= preventing from resigning two bad long term contracts. We get Pau who will return to 20/10 and become a guy to build around, who will recruit other players, and bring a higher level of legitimacy to the Jazz. Remember, 2 years ago Pau was considered the best Big in the world. He is only 32 and likely has 4-5 very productive years with perhaps 3 all star years as well. The Jazz will utilize him correctly and give him 50% more FG and touches, and touches in the right spot (low post). His career norms of 52%FG will recover quickly and he will be right back to 20/10.

Then if for whatever reason we want to flip him at the draft with Toronto-Cleveland-Washington for Marcus Smart... fine. But only do this if he has given signals of not wanting to resign at the end of the next season.
 
Blackham bro you sound like the **** bro you really predicted the dwill trade exactly? wow.
interesting thoughts. i think you have good ideas but if jazz bring in gasol wont they just remain a mediocre team?
i think if theyre gonna trade sapman or big al do it for some picks or something so you get cheap young players who have potential to be studs for a long time. if they turn into studs then youve got cheap young studs to pair with favors, burks, ghost face drilllah, etc. if they suck, then jazz will make the lottery and get their own picks. with pau, they will make the playoffs but probably not improve enough to win larry o'brien's heart.
 
The prediction was pretty simple: As soon as all the NJ offers for Carmello came out I felt that was a no brainer for us... I also felt that we should have got that one more LAL pick.

Moving on: The Jazz need either lottery luck, or pick luck. Meaning SAN ANTONIO got the lottery luck by getting Duncan by jumping from 7 to 1 in the lottery. But they then got 1st round and second round pick luck: Parker at 30 in the first round! (Jazz took Raul Lopez 29... ouch!) Ginobili in the 2nd round. So luck in the lottery, and two all stars in the late first and 2nd round.

The Jazz have done pretty good getting value in the 2nd round, and developing players to where you could say they are lottery luck away from being San Antonio (Tim Duncan). But it takes 2 stud all stars and maybe 3 to win a championship. Could the Jazz compete in 2-3 years: Yes if Favors becomes D Howard which he has the skill set to do so. If Pau returns to All star status. If Hayward becomes Ginobili light (which I could see), and if we luck out in the lottery: Say Marcus Smart slips to our GSW pick but then blows up as a PG stud that no body expected... kind of like Lillard is doing from the 6th pick in the draft.

Things change quickly if players improve and pick here or there goes your way.
 
Blackham, I'm much more pessimistic than you about Gasol returning to all-world form. I'd put the odds at something like this: notably better in helping the team win than Al & Paul 30%; somewhere in the neighborhood of Paul and Al's contributions 45%; likely less helpful than Paul and Al 25%. I'd be willing to take those odds only because it gives Favors/Kanter a more clear track to taking over. I agree with you that re-signing Al & Paul to large contracts would be a long-term mistake. Gasol gives us an extra year where Favors & Kanter don't have all the pressure on them.

But as I said before, this only makes sense if we also flip Jefferson for a good young PG (I know some people would go for Calderon; I don't think I would). I was intrigued with your 3-way earlier that would bring Teague from Atlanta along with Pau, while sending out Mo, Jefferson, and Millsap. But I really can't imagine the scenario in which Atlanta would go for that. So I think that while a trade (or trades) that brought in Gasol and a decent young PG and sent out Mo, Millsap, and Jefferson would be ideal, it's also highly unlikely to be do-able.
 
everyone wants a good young pg. they dont grow on trees ya know.
lol at getting teague. ya right bro. i dont love calderon but i support getting him unless you can name someone whos better yet still realistic.
 
"He's slow to rotate on pick and roll defense, as well as perimeter closeouts, and has been shockingly sedentary finishing around the rim offensively"

And he's owed about 20 mil next year.

Is this really the guy you want to hitch your wagon to? I know I don't. Did any of you watch the Jazz/Laker game this year? Gasol was a total non-factor. He looks washed up to me.

So, it's a no for me. Not even particularily close. I don't need Gasol when I have Jefferson, and I sure as hell don't need his salary next year when the Jazz are looking to have major cap room if they don't screw it up with a shortsighted move like this.

No.

Please no.

He's the Lakers problem now, let them deal with it.
 
Blackham, you still down on this trade, considering the latest news about Pau's injuries? It sounds like a long-term thing that could greatly reduce his level of play for the rest of his career.
 
I could see Gasol leaving LA. The Lakers have a ton of pressure on them. They lost again last night, and continue to feel the heat.

I think the Lakers are in a position of weakness, and we need to get something for Sap or Big Al. If Gasol's injury isn't bad I think we should make our play soon. Getting Gasol on the downswing is risky, but it also has a high reward. If he returns to his old form we'd be much improved.
 
I have no interest in Pau unless Jeffersuck is being shipped out. I'm too worried that the Jazz will try and resign Jefferson and we will have one more year of Favors and Kanter playing under 20 minutes a game. That is simply unacceptable.
 
Couple responses to legitimate questions asked:

Yes, I am still for Gasol considering his injuries. First off he has never had any serious injury and I think these may be much to do about nothing. I personally think they will be dealing him in the next few days and that is why they are sitting him (I could obviously be wrong about this), but I just think the situation has reached a tipping point. Think about what he has had to endure the last couple years: He was all world under Phil Jackson during their last finals run, then they have a coaching change and Bynum surges to push him to the high post PF position. Now he lost his position because he could play both more than the fact that Bynum was better... Gasol is just more versatile. Then they trade him last year and Stern nixes that. Then the fan base blames him when anything doesn't work out for the team. They don't criticize Kobe because he is God, and they didn't criticize Bynum cause he is young and up and coming. This year has been more of the same, with another coaching change and Pau getting all the blame because the fan base wants to resign Howard and Kobe is still God.

In general I don't think Euro guys need to have the glitz and glammar of the big city. I think they are fine with a sedentary life style of places like Utah, Milwakee and SA. Who was the last Euro to demand a trade to a big city or complain about being in a small market? There may be one, but I can't think of it.

Pau by now has got to be so sick and tired of Kobe chucking up 30 shots a game. I am sure it has taken massive amounts of patience to deal with Kobe's petulance. I think he likes the rich club throwing big money his way, but the big money part of his career is over. I think he would relish the chance to return to form and stick it down the Lakers throat who tried to trade him by going back to his normal self. I think he wants a legacy greater than being Kobe's All Star sidekick. I think he will return to dominance. His drop off??? Sure he could be slipping, but I think it is more psychological than age or health.... Look at Paul Millsap... turning down a good extension in the off-season and now he is thinking too much and he is totally off his game. Last year he was 3rd in PER at this point, this year he is losing value by the day.

As far as the Teague trade proposal that wasn't mine, but I think it was a well thought out trade and Teague is the kind of player we should be pursuing. On the other hand I agree that Teague will not be made available by Atlanta. My whole approach to proposing big trades that help the Jazz always keeps in mind the other teams motivation. There is no motivation for the Hawks to trade Teague, just like there is no motivation for the Blazers to trade Lillard etc.

So when I take a look at the market place for players that the Jazz need, and specifically when looking for a young PG I ask myself why the opposing team would do a trade. The team I see that would do a trade is either Milwakee (Jennings) or more specifically the Clippers of Bledsoe. First, Milwakee was the one team with a young pg (Curry, Lawson, Holiday) who didn't re up their PG and they probably didn't do that for a reason... perhaps they feel like the market was too rich for him this year and he needs to prove he can shoot... 40% doesn't cut it as a PG. I think with one more year in the league he will either have his market come down to where he should be signed, or he won't... but the Jazz would be wise to stay away from a guy that shoots 38-40% and who says he wants to go to a big city.

Bledsoe is possible but only after they resign Chris Paul. If Chris Paul resigns they will quickly ship out Bledsoe (my expectation is next summer) for a young prospect or picks. Until the Clippers resign Paul there is no motivation to ship out Bledsoe, but as soon as Paul resigns the Clippers will realize they will not be able to hang onto their guy. His value will continue to jump this season and unless Bledsoe is stupid or his agent is, they won't extend this summer on the cheap. I think the Jazz are in a good position to get him if they do a couple things: #1 get Burks rolling... he is the kind of player the Clippers would covet if he starts to show something... A Burks and Future 1st should do it and then the Jazz extend Bledsoe for 4/$32M. Again this would be the Jazz ahead of the curve on a player, and the Clippers acting wisely. I could also see sending Kanter to them for Bledsoe. To get something of value we have to give value.

If a good young PG prospect like Bledsoe isn't available you don't settle for mediocre players on big money contracts. That is what you do if you sign MO/AL/or Paul.. Don't tie your hands with long term bad deals.

If they can't get Bledsoe or the draft doesn't render a high end PG pick.. the Jazz should take on the last year of Ridnour, or sign Maynor to a $3M deal and re up Watson. Just don't whatever you do sign the wrong player to big money because they are the one available.
 
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"Trading for Gasol means no major free agent signings" There are only two free agents next year: Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. If you believe either are coming here you are mistaken. Doing a Gasol deal is our free agency 7 months in advance. It also prevents us from settling for Al or Paul and Mo.
 
I think trading for Gasol, especially if we don't have to give up our young talents is a great idea. Yes he has a large contract and he is older but 32 years old isn't that old for a big man.

Al and Gasol fit in the same spot on our offense. We would need to move Jefferson in a separate deal or work some kind of 3 team trade. They don't work together.

I think the Lakers have interest in Millsap and Bell. Maybe they could use Marvin or not.

On the secondary deals, I don't think Bledsoe will be available for anything less than one of young talents and a 1st round pick. He might be worth that.

I don't want any part of Jennings.

Minnesota might want Marvin Williams. They have a bunch of point guards.
 
Like I said, Jazz shouldn't pursue Jennings. My point is when you look at the market place you have to see the motivation for the other team. Milwakee "MIGHT COULD" be willing to get rid of their young PG, but we wouldn't want him because their reasons for letting him go are basketball related first and money related as well.

Bledsoe on the other hand will be a restricted free agent after next season (2014) and if the clippers resign CP3 they will want to get something good for him this summer and allow the acquiring team to lock him up a little cheaper than lose him for nothing in restricted free agency the following summer.

One thing has to happen for this all to occur... Burks and Kanter need to develop.

In a perfect world: Millsap/Mo/Raja or Millsap/Marvin/ Raja happens to get Pau Gasol

In the next two months Kanter starts to blow up as Favors nurses his arch... and while this is happening Portland begins to tank and decides to go young with their team and shed LMA. We send Jefferson/Kanter plus one of our picks for LMA/Hickson.

Then Burks starts to blossom the rest of the season to the point that he is sufficient to get Bledsoe in the off season with a pick.

Next year:

Bledsoe/Watson
Hayward/Foye
Marvin/Carrol
LMA/Favors
Gasol/Favors

We then either keep that together for 1 year and decide who to keep long term as we decide if Favors injury is going to be chronic, but a 3 man big rotation gives each player 32 minutes a night. Then we extend Gasol if he is back to stardom and we ship LMA for a top pick in 2014. Options Options Options.

We have the assets to get these deals done if we want.
 
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