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Global Climate Status Report

I live in southern New England, with an obvious temperate climate. But, 300 million years ago, when the supercontinent Pangea existed, where I now live was located much closer to the equator, and the plant fossils I find here lived in a tropical swamp. Earlier, 525 million years ago, southeastern New England was part of a volcanic island arc in a proto-Atlantic ocean. The trilobite species found in our rocks are also found in the Mid Cambrian rocks of Wales, Norway, the Bohemia section of the Czech Republic, Spain, Morocco, Newfoundland and other areas. All these disparate regions were a part of that ancient island arc, known as Avalonia, named after the Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland. This island arc was pushed into proto-North America when Pangea formed, and that part of Avalonia that remained attached to North America when Pangea broke apart includes what is now southeastern New England. All areas of the Earth that were once part of this ancient volcanic island arc have the same trilobite fossils, allowing us to identify the widely scattered pieces of Avalonia.

I just mention all this to point out how different the configuration of continents has been throughout time, and that too determines what past climate was like. It is not simply the waxing and waning of continental ice sheets, which was the major climate dynamic during the most recent Pleistocene Period, but the movement of plates is such that lands now located in northern latitudes may have been equatorial at other times.

Anyway, mammoths were obviously adopted to cold climates. They were not Wooly Mammoths for nothing. And a small population survived until only about 4000 years ago, about 7000 years later then when most mammoths experienced extinction.

www.sciencedaily.com

The last mammoths died on a remote island

Isolation, extreme weather, and the possible arrival of humans may have killed off the holocene herbivores just 4,000 years ago.
www.sciencedaily.com
 
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babe said:
It's a time issue, really.

Did you notice in those videos from Siberia the ones I did mention about people out there on the meltwaters pulling up the tusks from the woolley mammoths of some thousands of years ago.

The mammoth is extinct now. There is one report from an early American explorer in Skull Valley, on the southwest arm of the Great Salt Lake, where there are some springs. The Indians in the 1840s told the story about a severe winter where even the valleys were packed up with perhaps ten feet of snow. They almost starved, they said, but the mammoths froze there, and the Indians survived by eating the frozen meat.

Mammoths were grazing animals, like cows or Buffalo, but larger. Their bones are found around the shores of the ancient Lake Bonneville in Utah, and likely elsewhere in the basin and range geological area, where there were once lakes, and a climate with much more rainfall or snowfall. Coincident with the end of the last ice age those lakes dried up, and it proved the end of the mammoths here.

In the Arctic, their bones or tusks are proof that the Arctic Ice...... low elevation polar locatation, melted off completely near the beginning of this interglacial warm era. Other interglacial warms are believed to have achieved similar or even higher temps.

You are, or should be, more interested in looking for this information in your own searches, and more willing to question politically-motivated propaganda sorts of distortions of the evidence.
Click to expand...
The video I saw were of the melting permafrost that revealed these fossils. Not only that but the scientist describing what the area was like in earlier years he had visited. There are so many video of glaciers melting in the Antarctica and ice core readings that can show the temperature of the earth based on their chemical composition from well before the existence of humans. It's prima facie proof that Global Warming is occurring because of human activity. I can't seem to recall off hand the source but the temperatures of the oceans are the highest in several million years and the increase in recent decades has gone way up like that graph I posted, which by the way is from NASA, which is all about science and not politics.
 
So anyway, we humans are the last remaining species of the genus Homo. It has always fascinated me that one does not have to go back that far in time to a time when other varieties of Homo sapiens lived with us. Neanderthals. Denisovans. We bred with those now lost humans. Whenever I think of these earlier humans, a question many would consider foolish crops up: did they have souls? I know, not something science can answer, and not a question an atheist would ask.

An interesting new study suggests earlier separate species of Homo may have gone extinct due to the inability to adopt to changing climate:

phys.org

Climate change likely drove early human species to extinction, modeling study suggests

Of the six or more different species of early humans, all belonging to the genus Homo, only we Homo sapiens have managed to survive. Now, a study reported in the journal One Earth on October 15 combining climate modeling and the fossil record in search of clues to what led to all those earlier...
phys.org phys.org

 
babe said:
It's a time issue, really.

Did you notice in those videos from Siberia the ones I did mention about people out there on the meltwaters pulling up the tusks from the woolley mammoths of some thousands of years ago.

The mammoth is extinct now. There is one report from an early American explorer in Skull Valley, on the southwest arm of the Great Salt Lake, where there are some springs. The Indians in the 1840s told the story about a severe winter where even the valleys were packed up with perhaps ten feet of snow. They almost starved, they said, but the mammoths froze there, and the Indians survived by eating the frozen meat.

Mammoths were grazing animals, like cows or Buffalo, but larger. Their bones are found around the shores of the ancient Lake Bonneville in Utah, and likely elsewhere in the basin and range geological area, where there were once lakes, and a climate with much more rainfall or snowfall. Coincident with the end of the last ice age those lakes dried up, and it proved the end of the mammoths here.

In the Arctic, their bones or tusks are proof that the Arctic Ice...... low elevation polar locatation, melted off completely near the beginning of this interglacial warm era. Other interglacial warms are believed to have achieved similar or even higher temps.

You are, or should be, more interested in looking for this information in your own searches, and more willing to question politically-motivated propaganda sorts of distortions of the evidence.
Click to expand...

Speaking of humans, and mammoths, in the Americas, check out this just published amazing discovery. Unlike most fossils, which preserve the remains of dead plants and animals, so-called trace fossils preserve moments in time, and the activity of living animals. In this case, from White Sands, NM, the footprints of a woman and child, intermingled, at the same moment in time, with mammoths and giant ground sloths:

phys.org

Fossil footprints: the fascinating story behind the longest-known prehistoric journey

Every parent knows the feeling. Your child is crying and wants to go home, you pick them up to comfort them and move faster, your arms tired with a long walk ahead—but you cannot stop now. Now add to this a slick mud surface and a range of hungry predators around you.
phys.org phys.org

Full paper:https://sci-hub.se/downloads/2020-1...Ohw7YWP0HYsmrrclvtSoMZEtb5dOvRaKWwejRh4Gib7x0

212E3F21-BCCE-4CDE-81F1-F94AEF420981.jpeg

BBAB4037-F3F5-46DE-84B6-F04CC951D6EA.jpeg
 
Eenie-Meenie said:
The video I saw were of the melting permafrost that revealed these fossils. Not only that but the scientist describing what the area was like in earlier years he had visited. There are so many video of glaciers melting in the Antarctica and ice core readings that can show the temperature of the earth based on their chemical composition from well before the existence of humans. It's prima facie proof that Global Warming is occurring because of human activity. I can't seem to recall off hand the source but the temperatures of the oceans are the highest in several million years and the increase in recent decades has gone way up like that graph I posted, which by the way is from NASA, which is all about science and not politics.
Click to expand...

OK. This is a better level of discussion than sheer political rhetoric.

Please notice that, I believe, my thesis is not exactly ever stated as humans causing global cooling, or not having some impact. It's about other possible factors and the distribution of relative possible impacts.

I was studying this issue when the political thrust was all about how we faced an impending Ice Age and we had to do something about that.l 1960s, 70s, clear into the 80s. The hole in the Ozone, and the catastrophic depletion of our last oil resources in the next few years. All that.

Used to be some cutting edge scientific peer reviewed articles that, based on I think pollen layered in the muck, supported estimates of temperatures almost on the decade level of precision. Said there was a short term spike in temps immediately preceeding several ice ages, on the scale of about 6C.

Also, please bear in mind that these temp estimates/correlations gave lower ocean temps during the Ice Ages of around 8-10C.

Such possible swings in SST or related changes in depth/temp profiles would rationally explain a significant swing in ambient CO2 resulting from shifting eqjuilibria with temp changes.

I just see a lot of the rhetoric in this area pretty wild compared to the scientific support given by actual data.

Before accepting the claim that we have something going on that exceeds the records of the last several million years, I note that I've seen quite the opposite claims or extrapolations of data as well. I'd want to look at the methods and the reports generally first hand.

In any event, please understand that the climate accords are significantly political, tremendously globalist and huge power grabs by governance in general, with little rational connection to the problem.

CO2 is not fixed by socialism. I don't think it's the right way to go to just shut down improvements in living conditions like refrigeration, electricity, or transportation.

I think the need we face requires better and more technology, not less. More efficient use of resources, more recycling. And the development of safe nuclear power generation and economical use of alternatives. The best use of solar and wind power would be connected to on-site generation, not powering the huge grid. Lots of ideas like that.

I don't believe oil is unlimited, and I think it's a good idea to reserve use of it, as well as coal etc., where it can be economical or efficiently done.

The Climate Accords need to be scrapped as wholly unacceptable, and something that effectively addresses all the possible changes we may face set up in place. It can be done without giving away the planet to the John. D. Rockefeller's clan.
 
Update time.

I see some really good recruitment/indoctrination sites online offering "talking point" help in promoting the fake climate crisis..

JFC wannabees should go there and drag stuff back here.
 
My short-term forecast for this winter started out being close. Deep polar vortex over the Hudson Bay/Great lakes. But recently it has shifted west.

La Nina is pretty strong, and wind patterns supporting it. Deep water supporting it. The one thing that is not in line is the strength of the polarjet. I mean, lack of strength. Some pretty good storms sliding by in the southern tier where it's supposed to be dry.

Overall, the global SST continue 1-1.5C above the "recent" average that's expected, with no evidence to support the false claim that it is in any sense a real norm.

alarmists have totally ignored the evidence that artic melt offs have been happening with some regulariy during all interglacial warm periods and have occurred before in this one. They want to believe the lie that we have a crisis.

Climate is a long term consideration, and it does normal natural excursions from the norm for more reasons than one. And socialism/statism just does nothing to change that.

A practical response to a sustained change would be to make necessary adjustments. Move if you have to. You'd do better making those decisions yourself.
 
My expectation that we are going to have an new Ice Age is not progressing any better than the fake crisis. We need the oceans to get warmer before it could sustain the development of a new Ice Age.

At the moment, we are having a rather unsupportive solar output for either thesis, and the earth/solar system/galactic "headwinds" of particles/molecules is weak Let's call it a weak Van Allen Crisis, and take advantage of the opportunity to set into space somewhere.

However recent publications are upgrading the heat flux emanating from our core, with theories about how it is deuterium fusion that is increasing and expected to increase. Now, this started 1.5 Billion years ago, and requires a zone of solid iron under great heat and great pressure, and that zone is getting larger, but it will continue on a greater than 1 Billion year one-time phenomena. That alone will raise the surface temp more than 2C, well maybe about 0.01C per year for 200 years and then sorta plateau as a new norm, before starting to fall off 1 B years from now.

I have no doubts that central planners will use this to justify their edicts and political manipulations, but there's nothing we can do about it.

Well, don't build near volcanos, expect more earthquakes, and do stuff about farming and housing we should just do anyway.

More CO2 would help, because we need to grow more forests and corn, and whatever we can inject into our atmosphere will reward us with just that much more green, in dollars and crops. But we really can't just burn enough stuff to make that difference, no matter what policies central planners could contrive, not even burning our whole damn North Woods.

In the long run, we will need to retrieve CO2 from the rocks to use in green house facilities to grow our food, fiber, and forests. Because while storage of C in reduced forms is limited, the process of carbonate rock formation is unlimited.

We have a generation of miseducated people indoctrinated in fake science driven by political motives of essentially malevolent sociopaths who have formed a little elite piracy enterprise, but the programs are as unsustainable as they are uninformed. The truth will eventually be the remedy.

As the great socialist/humorist Ambrose Bierce quipped.

"When lost in the night and fog, mired neck deep in an unwholesome bog, experience, like the rising of the dawn, reveals the path we should not have gone.

Well, I'm losing interest in entertaining humorless ignoramuses...... gotta move along.
 
The polar plunge that hit Texas was actually forecast a week ahead.

Polar Vortex in the exact spot I was talking about as dominant this winter.

But there have been more southern track storms overall than I thought.

I consider this year, this winter especially, to be essentially uncharted territory we have not seen before, because of generally warmer oceans (+ 1 c) and less Arctic ice art the start.

In general, we have had a lot of zonal flow off the Pacific, which allows the cold to build in the Arctic and set up for the plunge.

For several days we had a very strong wave, but now we're back to zonal.

This is not the new Ice Age, yet.
 
Red said:
www.theguardian.com

Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruption

Sobering new report says world is failing to grasp the extent of threats posed by biodiversity loss and the climate crisis
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

From the article:
Dealing with the enormity of the problem requires far-reaching changes to global capitalism, education and equality, the paper says. These include abolishing the idea of perpetual economic growth, properly pricing environmental externalities, stopping the use of fossil fuels, reining in corporate lobbying, and empowering women, the researchers argue.
Click to expand...

Wow.
Did they just pull up a list of things that right-wing conservatives don’t like and put it in a scientific study, or what?
 
TroutBum said:
Haha, I had forgotten just how insane Babe is.

I mean, wow.
Click to expand...
Insane in relation to what? You?

People have essentially two directions they can go, as I see things. With the herd, or somewhere else. The herd does not question their direction. Generally it follows the food. When the food runs out, herds will break up into bands, essentially increasing the probabilities of finding more food. herds and bands move faster when there is little food.

This is the fundamental reason why socialism runs out of steam pretty quick, ends up going nowhere. It is true that our globalist managers do a lot of thinking like I do, looking for reasons to move the herd one way or another, but our current herd leadership really just wants to lead us to the corral and the slaughterhouse.

Bill Gates, for example, is but one of many who believe overpopulation is our number one problem, the most serious threat to general sustainability. The unspoken corollary is that population puts pressure on cartel control. Well, I mean "cartel" as in corporate rights to resources., as opposed to people's rights. "Cattle control" sounds a lot like "Cartel Control", but so long as we have a UN run by unelected people picked essentially from corporate cronies, it will always boil down to a media and gover nment educational monopoly pushing corporate interests even while falsely proclaiming animus against the corporate world. Interests have to play that game with the ignoramuses all around on every side. The Reds of the world. The Trusts of the world.

The babes of the world can hardly get the news that is available to the herd managers. What we get is the crafted narratives. If we speak of imagined possibilities, it's alll "conspiracy theory" crap. But uninformed reason is not as bad as outright lies. Reasoned lies require some speculation as to why these lies are being fed to the herd.

Reasoned speculation is the very heart of "conspiracy theories", but when anyone dumps on it, especially mainstream media and government bureaucrats, it is essentially a confession that it's true, somehow. Dangerous departure from the narrative du jour.

But, sadly, we have moved beyond that level of derision against non-normative cognition. Gone are days when mere speculation forms the majority of deviant thinking. Now even factual material is often way off the track of our managerial-favored narratives. Our managers are now afraid of facts as well as speculations.

Our managers are so deep in their own narratives that they are making up their own facts as they go, and if you dare to question their facts, you're "insane".
 
@Red and @leftyjace

Here's an easy fact:



There are lots of videos on this subject. This shows the continuity of the issue.

More recently:
www.wired.co.uk

The climate crisis has sparked a Siberian mammoth tusk gold rush

The Arctic permafrost is thawing, revealing millions of buried mammoth skeletons. But the rush for mammoth ivory could put elephants in danger all over again
www.wired.co.uk www.wired.co.uk


BTW. what do Woolly Mammoths eat?


I confess I am confused with liberal logic, and mystified at how political activists can ignore facts while demanding vast populations must submit to their demands for human belief. Submission to the narrative is hardly even a "thing" in intellectual discussions, even now. I mean, it's just the elephant, well the woolly mammoth, in the room.

I could not expect either of you to actually digest the information I provide here with any understanding. It simply defies integration into the narrative you love.

Woolly Mammoths remains have been found in many places, including the shoreline here in Utah, of the ancient Lake Bonneville. An early anecdote of the first American expedition into the area in about 1835 was how Skull Valley got it's name. Woolly Mammoth skulls around a spring in the desert. The native Goshutes told the expolorers (Shoshone dialect spoken here) of an extreme winter event where perhaps 10ft of snow filled the area valleys, and the mammoths froze there. The Goshutes survived by eating the mammoths. That was in living memory then.

Herbivores don't find food in ice. They might, in a summer thaw, find something growing during the summer, but likely not grass.

The Russian mammoths dating to 40K years ago were there eating grass. A declining ice age then, perhaps, in that area.

The recent exploits of Russians plying the permafrost under seasonal lakes and dredging up tusks from the current limits of frozen storage a few feet down says volumes about certain claims.

Our current interglacial warm has a track record of warmer days than today.

We're still within the evidenced bounds of interglacial warm events.

The receding waters of Lake Bonneville mark quite well the last 10K years of our current interglacial warm. The Great Basin lakes probably were significant climate modifiers across the plains. More moisture from westerly winds, etc.

The examples found of frozen mammoths confirm some very rapid shifts in weather..... extended warm spells that made grasslands of Siberia while in North America there was still glacial ice. Then a sudden switch to ice in Siberia. Mammoths frozen within a few days, and left encased in ice for thousands of years.

I confess I don't even know how to talk to people who are buying into whole worldviews like todays political "science".

I don't believe either of you really can benefit from a simple question, or a clear fact, that produces such cognitive dissonance as this one fact.

We've been even warmer than we are today within the past 40k years, several times. The event melted the whole damn Ice Age in North America, long before internal combustion engines.

Proven as the only "fact" that could possibly have sustained woolley mammoths in Siberia. On the shores of the Arctic Ocean, in grasslands.
 
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Red said:
What the polar vortex is doing is a result of increasing warmth in the polar region. And it’s obvious that the polar region is in fact warming faster than any other region on Earth. Ask the polar bears. Ask the eskimos.....

bigthink.com

Texas snowstorms are due to rapid heating of the Arctic, say scientists

A warming Arctic Circle could be responsible for bursts of cold weather in the south.
bigthink.com bigthink.com

Click to expand...

This is a disputable and disputed view of the general problem/fact.

What causes "wavey" jet stream or zonal (straight) air stream is simply not really known.

The phenomena of mixing air masses is probably affected by multiple factors.

Atmospheric energy or weather of any kind subject to many things. Mostly cyclical in some way, mostly "random" in some manner, as well. Cyclical and random are not entirely cohesive, nor entirely disparate. Logical maybe if you have enough information that bears on the subject du jour.

Upper atmospheric "winds" are thought to steer weather, but can be thought of as the result of weather as well.

The most informative phenomena of weather is "evaporation" Evaporation, or the humidity that results. Humid air is less dense. It naturally is prone to being displaced upward by denser, drier air. Sometimes surface heat causes upward displacement, where there is solid ground that can be heated by the sun to high temperatures. Not so much over oceans. Over oceans, the sun's heat causes evaporation. If for whatever cause, the temperature is increased, the rate of evaporation increases.

Clouds form at some point from water vapor. Over cooler water, this is near the surface. The fog reflects the sun, and sorta balances the system locally. Clouds at anyh height will locally reduced solar flux underneath.

Great winter storms are fed by stored energy(heat) and humidity coming into interaction with cold air mixing from the polar areas. Local cooling produces condensation, which is a powerful local vacuum-producer. The extremes of cold air available, and humaidity in the air are what causes storms to form.

But another thing happened that causes the Texas freeze. This was just a huge air mass, very cold and very dense, sliding south. The Jet Stream in this case just followed it. Near the Gulf of Mexico, and with help from a very humid air flow coming from the Pacific across Mexico, the storm happened.

This is the frequent origin of "Noreasters in New England, but usually not starting in Texas but maybe off the East Coast.

The next Ice Age will be caused by Evaporation from warmer seas than we have today. Our current = 1C over the historic past 150 years is not enough.

The next Ice Age will happen because we don't have enough CO2 to sustain our current interglacial warm. And we can't just burn stuff enough to change that.

I believe we are in a multi-cyclical low for several cycles of energy including solar and galactic and general space material (particle and vapor) flux. We are in an exceptional long interglacial warm spell. When you have multiple cycles coincidentally aligned to enhance a "low", the probability increases that a change is coming.

Our fake scientists of today, all politically salaried to produce desired talking points, are missing the most important things. Sadly, on purpose.

Ocean outgassing measurements have exceeded their theoretical models. They are being forced to increase their estimates of heat flux from the earth's core. We are in some kind of self-heating event caused by nuclear reactions deep within the earth. Fission or fusion somehow. Possible cycles of sinking and rising plumes. Whatever. We did not know enough to predict this. We still don't.

The push to demand global management powers/socialism/'fascist corporate control under elitist intellectual claims is failing.

Will fail.

A next generation will have to fix our damn mess.
 
Red said:
What the polar vortex is doing is a result of increasing warmth in the polar region. And it’s obvious that the polar region is in fact warming faster than any other region on Earth. Ask the polar bears. Ask the eskimos.....

bigthink.com

Texas snowstorms are due to rapid heating of the Arctic, say scientists

A warming Arctic Circle could be responsible for bursts of cold weather in the south.
bigthink.com bigthink.com

Click to expand...

This explanation, actually, is simply false.

Debatable if we don't know anything.

The temperature gradient south to north is reduced during the summer months, and the northern jet gets weaker and meanders less, and even goes away briefly.

Really, the better way to explain Texas' cold event is the "Merry-Go-Round". The spinning earth is the merry go round. The cold polar air is a heavy object that gets off the center and is propelled outward. The heaver it is..... the colder the air..... the farther it goes.

The weather people predicted it correctly based on where it started and how cold it was. It was east of the Rockies, and took the path of greatest differential to the Gulf.

A mass centered more on say the Bering Sea or Siberia would produce a Pacific storm. Snow in the hills of San Diego.
 
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babe said:
There are lots of videos on this subject. This shows the continuity of the issue.
Click to expand...
Yes, I know. I posted a short National Geographic video showing mammoth hunters in Siberia quite awhile ago in one of the climate change threads. I’m friendly with a guy who’s been bringing these fossils into the states. I believe you saw that video at the time I posted it. This is happening because of thawing permafrost.

Indeed, global warming has been a boon to archaeologists as well as paleontologists, and fossil collectors. Particularly with preserved organic artifacts, like wooden bows, and other otherwise perishable artifacts, appearing in melting Alpine glaciers for instance. So, both paleontology, as it pertains to Pleistocene life, and archaeology, have been able to take advantage of this situation.

www.theguardian.com

Secrets of the ice: unlocking a melting time capsule

As the Earth’s ice melts, large numbers of perfectly preserved ancient artefacts are being revealed. But time is running out and ‘glacial archaeologists’ are racing to find these fragile treasures
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

And how about the huge “methane holes”?

www.cnn.com

Mysteries of massive holes forming in Siberian permafrost unlocked by scientists | CNN

Drone photography, 3D modeling and artificial intelligence are now helping scientists understand how a number of massive craters have formed in the Siberian tundra -- a dramatic and new geological phenomenon thought to be linked to climate change.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
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babe said:
I could not expect either of you to actually digest the information I provide here with any understanding. It simply defies integration into the narrative you love.
Click to expand...
Oh, give me a break. I’ve been a student of Earth history and paleontology for my entire life. I majored in geology as an undergraduate, before eventually switching to history. I’ve been a fossil collector for over 60 years. I’m well aware that there were several glaciation pulses during the Pleistocene, and that the present Holocene Era may be another interglacial warming interval. I’m aware of all that.
 
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