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Good news, bad news

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My2Cents

Well-Known Member
Good news...
According to Chad ford:
"Burke deserves a month or two to get his feet underneath him before we bring up his struggles to get his own shot during summer league. But if he can't prove to be a capable starting point guard at some point, the Jazz should be a lock to finish with the worst record in the NBA."
Click to expand...
Bad news...
Since the weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, only three teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery.
 
Bad news: The probability that the worst team is getting the 4th #1 since 1990 is lower than that it doesn't.
Good news: The probability that the worst team is getting the #1 pick is higher than that the 3rd worst team has the right lottery ticket.
 
My2Cents said:
Since the weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, only three teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery.
Click to expand...

I'm sure you know this, but obvi that doesn't actually matter. Still just want the best odds.

Math n' ****.


£¥£
 
Past lotteries are not a predictor of future lotteries. (In other words, it has no memory.) The team with the worst record has a 25% chance of getting the first pick, a 46.5% chance of a top two pick, a 64.3% chance of a top 3 pick, and a 35.7% chance of ending up with the fourth pick.
 
Just as long as Jazz get the #1 or #2
That guarantees them Wiggins or Parker.
Randle or Embiid would be great but require some tweeking of the PF-C players.
 
BTP said:
Bad news: The probability that the worst team is getting the 4th #1 since 1990 is lower than that it doesn't.
Good news: The probability that the worst team is getting the #1 pick is higher than that the 3rd worst team has the right lottery ticket.
Click to expand...

Good new: although probability dictates that the next coin flip is independent of past flips, it also dictates that odds will eventually catch up and over favor the number one slot, thus throwing a wrench into the whole probability theory and giving the Jazz a higher than expected probability. Capeesh?
 
LogGrad98 said:
Wiggins and Parker are redundant. Wiggins/Parker and Randle are epic.
Click to expand...

I guess they are redundant. If you think Jordan and pippen were redundant. Depends on what you mean by redundant though. Like if you mean "well, we already have one title, winning six more would just be redundant." Then yeah, Parker and wiggins would be like totally redundant.
 
no good news

franklin said:
Good new: although probability dictates that the next coin flip is independent of past flips, it also dictates that odds will eventually catch up and over favor the number one slot, thus throwing a wrench into the whole probability theory and giving the Jazz a higher than expected probability. Capeesh?
Click to expand...

Choose:
A. bad news: since number 1 picks historically have gotten less than 25%, next year's probability is less than 25% (history predicts future)
B. good news: since number 1 picks historically have gotten less than 25%, next year's probability is greater than 25% ("we're due" or "we'll catch up")
C. no news: next year's probability is 25%. period. end of story. Dice have no memory.

Sorry, Franklin, no "good news". Hit the probability text books harder next time, dude.
 
Lottery order selection is an independent event (not influenced by past lottery order selections), thus, all else equal, I'd rather have the highest chance of getting #1 than something less than the highest chance.
 
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