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Hard to see Knight as the #3 pick based on this analysis..

The Midnight

The Midnight

#Baby_Talk
Contributor
Draft Express - Statistical Analysis of guards 2011

https://www.draftexpress.com/article/Just-By-the-Numbers-the-2011-Guard-Crop-3749/

Too many tables there to paste here, some points on Knight:

- average free throw attemps per 40 min
- average true shooting %
- average assists per 40 min
- low asist to turnover ratio
- lowest steals per 40 min
- low Hollinger's PER

Caveats
- Knight did get better as the season went on
- Stats compared players across different leagues
- Not saying he couldn't improve and thrive in the NBA
 
Hard to pick Kanter based on this statistical analysis.

Zero points scored in last year
Zero rebounds in last year
Zero blocks in last year
Zero steals in last year
 
Hotttnickkk said:
- Knight did get better as the season went on
Click to expand...

Brandon Knight's season FG% (red line average):

brandonknightfgpercenta.gif
 
Obviously I was being sarcastic. You can't just look at stats though when you pick a guy. Take into account Brandon Knight was on a team full of freshman. Their wasn't even that deep. They had one big man.
 
More on the Pure Point Rating from ESPN:

https://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/30332/get-to-the-point-knight-vs-walker

To help us, let's use one of the key metrics for evaluating point-guard prospects: pure point rating (PPR), which calculates assists and turnovers into a single number projection of how a particular player will fare as a distributor in the NBA. The average PPR of all current NBA starters while they were in college is 1.2.

Walker had a 1.5 PPR in college. It also took him only 18 minutes per game to get a steal or block and he was able to score inside. His upside is the same or slightly better than Knight's, but he is definitely a safer pick -- his chance of failing is less than one out of 10. There are no red flags on Walker, making him a one-out-of-three shot of becoming a good player at the next level.

Knight, meanwhile, has a one-in-four chance of being good, but the numbers suggest that his chances of success ride heavily on his shooting ability, not his passing. Knight had a minus-1.4 PPR in college, which is extremely low for a point guard -- lower, in fact, than any NBA starting point guard’s college PPR except for Stephen Curry, who did not play point guard until his third and final year at Davidson.

Knight’s youth and specific metrics on steals and rebounds also raise red flags. In short, studies show that point guards with his characteristics don't live up to first-round expectations. Knight has about a one-in-three chance at failing -- he is an NBA player, but he is a poor risk for a lottery team.
Click to expand...
 
As much as the percentages, i care about their age. Its much easier for ncaa players to get better stats as the years go by. Thats why i rate knight much higher than kemba and jimmer.
 
^^^ the only thing I would disagree with (actually more of a clarification) on the assessment of Knight is the steals category. Calipari never has players that are either steals or blocks juggernauts. This is because he doesn't like gambling on defense, just solid "d" and keep your man from scoring. He is always saying he thinks two of the most overrated stats in bb are steals and blocks .. constantly citing players that have gaudy numbers in one of those categories but are an overall defensive liability.

The other points about Knight are fair ... but I just think he has too much in the intangibles department to 'fail' in the NBA. I have repeatedly said, though, #3 is likely too high .. but there just are not enough in this draft you take before him. Perplexing.
 
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