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Hollinger's playoff odds in relation to the tank rank

b_line

b_line

Well-Known Member
I think Hollingers playoff odds https://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds are a pretty good predictor of the actual record we will have at the end of the season. This should be something we follow. Currently, it has us finishing tied with LA Lakers and Orlando tied for the third worst record, and the bottom ten look like this:

1. Milwaukee
2. Philly
T3. Utah, Lakers, Orlando
6. Cleveland
T7. Sacramento, Boston
T9. Brooklyn, Detroit

Of those teams, Brooklyn, Detroit and Cleveland seem like they want to be in the playoffs. The two teams that are not ashamed of their tank seem to be Orlando and Milwaukee. Utah, Boston, and Philly seem to be confused about what they want to do with their lives, and no one knows what Sacramento and the Lakers will do at this point.

If I had to guess, I would put Utah in the top five of tanking teams, which would mean at the very worst, we would get the 8th pick, but that would mean that three teams outside of the top five jumped into the top 5. So to reiterate what has been said like 9 million times already, we need to be worse!

One reason I do think we will be worse than our record over the last 22 games (11-11, I believe) is because we have been winning a lot of close games, and our point differential is horrendous. Point differential is a pretty good indicator of what a team actually is. I heard on a podcast that the Jazz actually have the point differential of a team that should have gone like 5-17 in the last 22 games.

The other variable is if the Jazz make some trades. If we trade away Jefferson or Marvin, that means Kanter will have to start playing a lot, and Favors and Kanter will need some time to figure out how to not play horribly together, meaning our record will probably go back to stinking again.
 
colton said:
Good find. Notice that there's also a "lottery" column on the far right, the chance of winning the lottery. Jazz currently rank #4 in the lottery column, behind Milwaukee, Philly, and Lakers.
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Good point. That probably takes into account the chance that the GS pick wins the lottery as well, even if it is just a tiny chance.
 
colton said:
Good find. Notice that there's also a "lottery" column on the far right, the chance of winning the lottery. Jazz currently rank #4 in the lottery column, behind Milwaukee, Philly, and Lakers.
Click to expand...

Not going to lie. That insanely offends me. I will riot if it happens. Look for a skinny white guy burning tires and cars, dodging police and spray painting obscene things about the Lakers on the Utah news.
 
He has Chicago at 39 wins. They will play some of the ugliest basketball you've ever seen. 10-49 is very possible the rest of the way.


Jazz are lucky to be in the strong West.
 
We need Gasol to turn back the clock and lead the Lakers to a much better record. The Bynum for Gasol deal not happening was great news for the Jazz.
 
b_line said:
Good point. That probably takes into account the chance that the GS pick wins the lottery as well, even if it is just a tiny chance.
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If GS wins the lottery, they keep the pick and we get two second round picks.
 
green said:
If GS wins the lottery, they keep the pick and we get two second round picks.
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Wtf?
Are you just trying to hurt us bro?
 
Glad to see this is up and running. I looked for it last month and it wasn't available yet for this season. Definitely love to track this although it has its limitations. I started the season thinking 25ish and was congratulating myself when they started out 1-14. However finishing with 28 wins (16-29 finish) seems awfully low right now. I'd guess that is excessively influenced by the early season struggles (and point differential), which have improved with Burke and Williams. Jazz have played .500 ball in the last 22. If that keeps up (or close) they probably hit 30-35 wins.

The loss of Deng isn't reflected in Chicago's projection yet. I'd expect them to fall off quite a bit. Cleveland may improve to offset.
 
franklin said:
He has Chicago at 39 wins. They will play some of the ugliest basketball you've ever seen. 10-49 is very possible the rest of the way.


Jazz are lucky to be in the strong West.
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you are totally dismissing the great Thib's bad a$$ coaching ability.

no way in hell they will be that bad. Thibs won't allow it.
 
Kenwood said:
I started the season thinking 25ish and was congratulating myself when they started out 1-14. However finishing with 28 wins (16-29 finish) seems awfully low right now. I'd guess that is excessively influenced by the early season struggles (and point differential), which have improved with Burke and Williams. Jazz have played .500 ball in the last 22. If that keeps up (or close) they probably hit 30-35 wins.
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Also thier early season schedule was the toughest in the nba
 
Stoked said:
Not going to lie. That insanely offends me. I will riot if it happens. Look for a skinny white guy burning tires and cars, dodging police and spray painting obscene things about the Lakers on the Utah news.
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I'm with you...this was supposed to be our year to "shine" in the tank race, but here comes the ****ing Lakers trying to steal our sunshine and crash the party.
 
green said:
If GS wins the lottery, they keep the pick and we get two second round picks.
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Stoked said:
It is unprotected this year I believe.
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trigg3r said:
I believe you are correct.
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b_line said:
Yeah thats definitely not true. We get the pick this year and in 2017 no matter what. Unprotected bro.
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bahahaha.

Green is confused with the pick we got from them last year. But even then, you still would be wrong. So Im not sure where the eff you are getting your info.

How can you call yourself a true JazzFan and not know this.

Cmon Green... Thats a fan infraction. Do it again and you are out the club.
 
He's been saying it for awhile now, but he's wrong. Both of the Golden State picks (2014 and 2017) are unprotected. That looked great for the Jazz before they went on their recent winning streak. I'm hoping that their heavy minutes takes a toll and they deal with some injury issues to finish up the season falling off the map. One little tweaked ankle and their season is in serious jeopardy.
 
I'm not sold that the Jazz are one of the three or four worst teams in the league. I do not think they keep up this current stretch of above .500 ball for very long once the schedule gets tougher next month and into March, but I think the horrible stretch at the start of the season skews the stats used in configuring playoff odds, etc.

One of the other geniuses here can correct me, but I believe point differential is a key factor in the Hollinger playoff odds and Pelton's record predictions. Pelton recently said on twitter that the Jazz aren't as good as they've been playing lately and will still finish with one of the worst records based on his predictions, but we got blown out a lot before Burke was back (and a couple times since he was back - Portland). But I think there's a pretty good chance we end the season with a better (higher/more positive) point differential than we currently have if everyone stays healthy.
 
So we will get the 6th pick. Could be worse.

1. Lakers
2. Magic
3. Celtics
4. Bucks
5. 6ers
6. Jazz

#Keeptheconspiracyalive
 
LogGrad98 said:
So we will get the 6th pick. Could be worse.

1. Lakers
2. Magic
3. Celtics
4. Bucks
5. 6ers
6. Jazz

#Keeptheconspiracyalive
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I agree with the could be worse statement.

Also, I think it will be worse...... I expect a pick between 8 and 12
 
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