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How far up the draft will this get us?

How far up the draft will this get us?

  • Total voters
    32
Voted 9th and I'm not sure it gets there. I would trade that package for 9th, but assets don't really "stack" that way. Not sure the 2nd rounders have much if any value... the OKC pick should be viewed as future 2nd rounders because of protections.
 
I think that would get us the 9th pick. If it meant getting Stanley Johnson, I would do it in a heart beat. I think Johnson will go around 7 or 8 though. That said, I would trade our first rounder next year unprotected, along for everything you have ponied up above, for Stanley Johnson.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
...assets don't really "stack" that way. Not sure the 2nd rounders have much if any value... the OKC pick should be viewed as future 2nd rounders because of protections.
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this is precisely why I initially skipped this thread without participating.

#Hacl
 
I could see a trade where similar to this:

Jazz out: Booker #12, OKC 2018 pick
Jazz in: #9 and M Williams

Minn out: K Mart
Minn in: Booker OKC pick

Cha out: #9 M Williams
Cha In: #12, and K Mart

They need shooting help, but I wouldn't want it coming from a rookie... they could pick up Devin Booker or whatever they feel they need long-term at 12. If they like Trey Burke I wouldn't be opposed to adding him to make this happen.
 
It'll probably get us the 8th pick and I could see Detroit going for it. There's still a lot of great players to draft at 12th.
 
This package is really only attractive to teams that aren't trying to win this year, since the immediate impact is a lesser pick. The exception would be if a team likes a player at 12 just as much as their spot. I don't really see this draft working out that way, so I'm skeptical there will be any takers. I voted 10.
 
Cappy_Smurf said:
This package is really only attractive to teams that aren't trying to win this year, since the immediate impact is a lesser pick. The exception would be if a team likes a player at 12 just as much as their spot. I don't really see this draft working out that way, so I'm skeptical there will be any takers. I voted 10.
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We need to flip the assets that are not win now to teams that are selling win now assets... basically it has to be three team stuff like I proposed above. Detroit, Miami, Charlotte, and Sacramenoto (they sooooo dumb) are all trying to win and would like immediate help.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
We need to flip the assets that are not win now to teams that are selling win now assets... basically it has to be three team stuff like I proposed above. Detroit, Miami, Charlotte, and Sacramenoto (they sooooo dumb) are all trying to win and would like immediate help.
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Yep. As much as I'd like to move up, I think a player has to be involved, and I don't know how attractive Burks is right now. Trey won't get us anywhere. I still think the most likely move is a trade for someone like Lowry/Lawson/etc..
 
There is a one scenario under which moving up is possible - a team either doesn't like anybody at the pick they are getting(thus willing to move down and accumulate extra assets) or the team likes several players about equally and thinks they can get one of them at the later pick you are going to give them. If they are in love with a prospect a trade simply won't happen unless you do some crazy overpayment.

The history of the draft night trades suggests that moving up in the lottery usually requires 1 additional draft pick and if the move is more serious or if it gets you to 2 tiers above your current pick it might require 2 picks. The OKC and GSW picks are not great assets but they are still first round picks, the two second rounders are meh, more like throw ins and probably won't move the needle much. I think they are probably more valuable as actual picks(stash players?) than as trade assets.

So yah, for the trade to take place you need to find a team who's not in love with a single player at their spot, first. I can see OKC and GSW picks moving us to 7... maybe 6...

Here's what it usually takes to move up in the lottery:

2014:
Orlando-Philadelphia : #10 for #12+future first(which was heavily protected) + future second
Chicago-Denver : #11 for #16 and #19

2013:
Utah-Minnesota: #9 for #14 and #21
Boston-Dallas: #13 for #16 and two future second round picks.

2012:
Charlotte-Sacramento-Milwaukee: #7 and Correy Magette for #10 and John Salmons for #19 and Beno Udrih, Stephen Jackson, Shaun Livingston

2008:
Memphis-Minnesota: #3, Marko Jarić, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner for #5, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins
Portland-Indiana: #11 and Ike Diogu for #13, Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts

2006:
Portland-Chicago: #2 and future second for #4 and Viktor Khryapa
Chicago-Philadelphia: #13 for #16 and future second + cash considerations

2005:
Utah-Portland: #3 for #6 and #27 + future first
 
stitches said:
There is a one scenario under which moving up is possible - a team either doesn't like anybody at the pick they are getting(thus willing to move down and accumulate extra assets) or the team likes several players about equally and thinks they can get one of them at the later pick you are going to give them. If they are in love with a prospect a trade simply won't happen unless you do some crazy overpayment.

The history of the draft night trades suggests that moving up in the lottery usually requires 1 additional draft pick and if the move is more serious or if it gets you to 2 tiers above your current pick it might require 2 picks. The OKC and GSW picks are not great assets but they are still first round picks, the two second rounders are meh, more like throw ins and probably won't move the needle much. I think they are probably more valuable as actual picks(stash players?) than as trade assets.

So yah, for the trade to take place you need to find a team who's not in love with a single player at their spot, first. I can see OKC and GSW picks moving us to 7... maybe 6...

Here's what it usually takes to move up in the lottery:

2014:
Orlando-Philadelphia : #10 for #12+future first(which was heavily protected) + future second
Chicago-Denver : #11 for #16 and #19

2013:
Utah-Minnesota: #9 for #14 and #21
Boston-Dallas: #13 for #16 and two future second round picks.

2012:
Charlotte-Sacramento-Milwaukee: #7 and Correy Magette for #10 and John Salmons for #19 and Beno Udrih, Stephen Jackson, Shaun Livingston

2008:
Memphis-Minnesota: #3, Marko Jarić, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner for #5, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins
Portland-Indiana: #11 and Ike Diogu for #13, Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts

2006:
Portland-Chicago: #2 and future second for #4 and Viktor Khryapa
Chicago-Philadelphia: #13 for #16 and future second + cash considerations

2005:
Utah-Portland: #3 for #6 and #27 + future first
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Good post... I do think it will take more to get to 6 or 7 though... there is a difference in moving from 12 to 6 or 7 and moving from 16 to 11 imo. I think the GSW pick is good because it is unprotected, but that OKC pick is more likely than not to be a 2nd rounder because of protections.

To move to 6 or 7 it would require, cap space, our own unprotected 2016 pick (I think I'd do it), or Hood (I like him too much) in addition to the GSW pick. So would you do the GSW pick, 12, and our pick for 6 or 7? I think I would. That is a lot though.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Good post... I do think it will take more to get to 6 or 7 though... there is a difference in moving from 12 to 6 or 7 and moving from 16 to 11 imo. I think the GSW pick is good because it is unprotected, but that OKC pick is more likely than not to be a 2nd rounder because of protections.

To move to 6 or 7 it would require, cap space, our own unprotected 2016 pick (I think I'd do it), or Hood (I like him too much) in addition to the GSW pick. So would you do the GSW pick, 12, and our pick for 6 or 7? I think I would. That is a lot though.
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Why do you think OKC's pick is likely to turn into 2nd rounder(actually if it does it turns into 2 second rounders)? Unless both Durant and Westbrook leave them for nothing they will very likely be a playoff team for the foreseeable future...
 
stitches said:
Why do you think OKC's pick is likely to turn into 2nd rounder(actually if it does it turns into 2 second rounders)? Unless both Durant and Westbrook leave them for nothing they will very likely be a playoff team for the foreseeable future..
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I think one or both will leave... KD's foot problems are also scary.
 
stitches said:
The OKC and GSW picks are not great assets but they are still first round picks
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Value wise, the GS pick could easily be the last 1st rnd pick, and the argument could be made that an early 2nd could be more valuable because of guaranteed money. The OKC pick could end up being two 2nds. As 1st round picks, those 2 just aren't that valuable. I don't think 6th or 7th is realistic in this case.
 
BTW from what I'm reading from NBA draft experts, next year the draft will be extremely shallow and without much talent* past the very top so in a way trading the 2016 pick instead of the GSW pick makes a lot of sense(2017 is projected to be a good draft year*).

*Disclaimer: I haven't watched many of the prospects coming into college so I'm relying on the Givony's and Vecenie's of the world... that's what they are saying for those classes.
 
Cappy_Smurf said:
Value wise, the GS pick could easily be the last 1st rnd pick, and the argument could be made that an early 2nd could be more valuable because of guaranteed money. The OKC pick could end up being two 2nds. As 1st round picks, those 2 just aren't that valuable. I don't think 6th or 7th is realistic in this case.
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Both picks are deferred to later years too, which lessens the value... time value of picks discount.
 
stitches said:
BTW from what I'm reading from NBA draft experts, next year the draft will be extremely shallow and without much talent* past the very top so in a way trading the 2016 pick instead of the GSW pick makes a lot of sense(2017 is projected to be a good draft year*).

*Disclaimer: I haven't watched many of the prospects coming into college so I'm relying on the Givony's and Vecenie's of the world... that's what they are saying for those classes.
Click to expand...
I have also heard this and think it might be a good reason to include that pick in lieu of the others. The perceived value of that pick might be higher than the perceived value of the other picks combined.
 
All 3 of OKC's best players will hit unrestricted FA before that pick is conveyed... All those guys going to be healthy and stay? I just don't see it. OKC messed up their chance imo.
 
I think those picks could get us a little further than nine. Maybe 6.

They are still 2 first rounders. 2nd rounders aren't completely worthless. They hold some value.I'll agree that a team probably wouldn't want them just because they probably don't want a bunch of rookies all at once. But they'd probably take at least one.

If nine is all that would get us then I would definitely not do a trade like that. If it could get us Mario or Winslow then I'd be down.
 
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