Let's play the usual "How good is Gordon compared to other wings and how much did they get" - Since that's every agent's favorite game to start looking for precedence cases if they don't like the offer.
Andre Iguodala $48M/4yr: Is a way better defender, slightly stronger passer up to this point(but I expect Hayward to get more assists next year due to bigger role and Trey being out), stronger in the open court and a stronger rebounder BUT slightly worse at taking care of the ball, a worse shooter and less efficient scorer.
Luol Deng $71M/6yr + incentives. If again allstar he can command probably around $13/yr: Luol is a better defender, better rebounder, better ballhandler. He's a slightly worse passer, worse at shooting, but better close to the basket. Also Luol is said to be a leader, very positive veteran presence and hard worker.
Then there was the ridonkulous Gerald Wallace contract: His $40M/4 was based on his post trade New Jersey performance. That year he had very similar numbers compared to Hayward. Hayward though was a better shooter and Wallace the way better rebounder. Often people refer to Wallace as a hard defender, but I remember lots of bad defensive situations. So I'm calling it even, since Hayward's defense is also limited by his athleticism and lateral quickness.
I don't know too much about Gerald Henderson. Especially about his defense. But at first sight his advanced numbers look very similar to Haywards in many categories. He got $18M for 3. Only noticable difference is 3 point shooting. Wanted to take another SG in, since some people suggest that Hayward should spend more time at the SG spot.
I can't take in Jimmy Butler, since his 2nd year production was not consistent enough to really derive too much out of it. But my feel is I'd rather have Jimmy Butler than Hayward for his defense and versatility.
Tayshaun prince got $28M/4yrs in 2011. I feel Gordon is slightly stronger individually by being the better and more versatile scorer. His stats say so too. Prince though is a veteran and a better defender.
Nicolas Batum got a $46M/4yrs offer sheet. His 3 point shooting is slightly worse than Gordon's but he shoots way more often which results in a higher eFG%. True shooting is equal. Gordon hits the free throw line way more often and has a higher usage rate. Batum though is the better passer and better rebounder, but he turns the ball over very often, since getting more ball handling duties last season. Prior to that he was a worse passer and better at not wasting possessions via TO. Defensively numbers suggest Batum is better, but my personal knock on Batum is his changing intensity and focus resulting in very good and very bad stretches both offensively and defensively.
DeMar DeRozan(Damn that's a lot of capital letters) got a $38M/4yrs extension last offseason that kicks in today. Plus he's less than a year older than Hayward, nixing the upside component a lot.
I don't know too much defensively about DeRozan so I won't compare them there. On offense though DeMar has a higher usage rate and takes better care of the ball additionally. His finishing efficiency though is below Gordon's. DeRozan is slightly better from 2 point range and hits the free throw line equally often but he also shoots more 2 pointer. So his total free throws are equal per 36 but relative to all 2 point finishes Gordon draws more fouls relatively. DeRozan hands out less assists and doesn't possess a three point shot, but he also avoids taking them(1.4 / 36min)
If I look at all those players I'd say more than $10M annually at this point would be overpay. 3rd year extension give financial security and unless it's a max player the player's agent has to give a small discount for it.
I feel like Batum, Wallace are slightly overpaid right now with Batum having the chance to live up to his contract with further improvement: Especially his consistency. Gerald Henderson got a very low contract this summer in free agency if you compare it to his numbers he produces.
DeMar DeRozan and Iggy got very fair money and I feel like Gordon's output is very similar to DeRozan's but his value is way lower compared to Iggy and Luol.
$50M for 5 years would be a very good contract.
AND there is ONE particular reason why $55M/5 might even also be still a good value. The deal starts in 2014 and in 2016 the TV rights expire and get renegotiated. Right now it's expected that the deal will be way higher than the current one, thus increasing the salary cap by a fair amount. Suddenly $11M per year might be the new $9M per year in 2017 after the TV deal impacts the cap the first time.
If they make the fifth year a team option on a $55M per 5 I'd be really happy for both Gordon and the Jazz. It gives them flexibility and probably good value.
Go Jazz!
Andre Iguodala $48M/4yr: Is a way better defender, slightly stronger passer up to this point(but I expect Hayward to get more assists next year due to bigger role and Trey being out), stronger in the open court and a stronger rebounder BUT slightly worse at taking care of the ball, a worse shooter and less efficient scorer.
Luol Deng $71M/6yr + incentives. If again allstar he can command probably around $13/yr: Luol is a better defender, better rebounder, better ballhandler. He's a slightly worse passer, worse at shooting, but better close to the basket. Also Luol is said to be a leader, very positive veteran presence and hard worker.
Then there was the ridonkulous Gerald Wallace contract: His $40M/4 was based on his post trade New Jersey performance. That year he had very similar numbers compared to Hayward. Hayward though was a better shooter and Wallace the way better rebounder. Often people refer to Wallace as a hard defender, but I remember lots of bad defensive situations. So I'm calling it even, since Hayward's defense is also limited by his athleticism and lateral quickness.
I don't know too much about Gerald Henderson. Especially about his defense. But at first sight his advanced numbers look very similar to Haywards in many categories. He got $18M for 3. Only noticable difference is 3 point shooting. Wanted to take another SG in, since some people suggest that Hayward should spend more time at the SG spot.
I can't take in Jimmy Butler, since his 2nd year production was not consistent enough to really derive too much out of it. But my feel is I'd rather have Jimmy Butler than Hayward for his defense and versatility.
Tayshaun prince got $28M/4yrs in 2011. I feel Gordon is slightly stronger individually by being the better and more versatile scorer. His stats say so too. Prince though is a veteran and a better defender.
Nicolas Batum got a $46M/4yrs offer sheet. His 3 point shooting is slightly worse than Gordon's but he shoots way more often which results in a higher eFG%. True shooting is equal. Gordon hits the free throw line way more often and has a higher usage rate. Batum though is the better passer and better rebounder, but he turns the ball over very often, since getting more ball handling duties last season. Prior to that he was a worse passer and better at not wasting possessions via TO. Defensively numbers suggest Batum is better, but my personal knock on Batum is his changing intensity and focus resulting in very good and very bad stretches both offensively and defensively.
DeMar DeRozan(Damn that's a lot of capital letters) got a $38M/4yrs extension last offseason that kicks in today. Plus he's less than a year older than Hayward, nixing the upside component a lot.
I don't know too much defensively about DeRozan so I won't compare them there. On offense though DeMar has a higher usage rate and takes better care of the ball additionally. His finishing efficiency though is below Gordon's. DeRozan is slightly better from 2 point range and hits the free throw line equally often but he also shoots more 2 pointer. So his total free throws are equal per 36 but relative to all 2 point finishes Gordon draws more fouls relatively. DeRozan hands out less assists and doesn't possess a three point shot, but he also avoids taking them(1.4 / 36min)
If I look at all those players I'd say more than $10M annually at this point would be overpay. 3rd year extension give financial security and unless it's a max player the player's agent has to give a small discount for it.
I feel like Batum, Wallace are slightly overpaid right now with Batum having the chance to live up to his contract with further improvement: Especially his consistency. Gerald Henderson got a very low contract this summer in free agency if you compare it to his numbers he produces.
DeMar DeRozan and Iggy got very fair money and I feel like Gordon's output is very similar to DeRozan's but his value is way lower compared to Iggy and Luol.
$50M for 5 years would be a very good contract.
AND there is ONE particular reason why $55M/5 might even also be still a good value. The deal starts in 2014 and in 2016 the TV rights expire and get renegotiated. Right now it's expected that the deal will be way higher than the current one, thus increasing the salary cap by a fair amount. Suddenly $11M per year might be the new $9M per year in 2017 after the TV deal impacts the cap the first time.
If they make the fifth year a team option on a $55M per 5 I'd be really happy for both Gordon and the Jazz. It gives them flexibility and probably good value.
Go Jazz!
Marion and Carter expire and they'll probably try to get on a contending team for their last years. Jae Crowder isn't exactly a starting caliber combo forward. So Hayward might fit their pattern and would be a Carlisle favorite.