What's new
By:

how many minutes will Marv + Millsap average at SF?

how many minutes will Marv + Paul combine to average at SF?

  • Total voters
    29
MoTown16 said:
Corbin has to sell our depth to the players. And that's probably hard to do for a young coach.

If I were Ty, I'd tell these guys after training camp, "looking at all of you, I see 9 or 10 who deserve to start. And all 14 of you deserve playing time. Obviously, there's not enough minutes in a game to give everyone the time they deserve. But I don't mind you being mad at me for not giving you enough minutes. I like guys who are hungry and want to compete. Way I see it, there's two ways we can handle this: 1) we play double-OT every game or 2) you guys give me 150% effort. If you play 10 mins, give me the same effort you'd give in 15 mins, if you play 25 mins, give the same effort you'd give in 35 mins. There are no subs or starters, just 1st and 2nd waves. I'm going to substitute liberally so all of you can go balls out on both ends. I want to run teams off the court. I want to look over and see them with their tongues hanging out, bent over from exhaustion."
Click to expand...

Sigh, this is the only thing I can foresee working.



Honestly, here are my major desires:


- Hayward needs >30 mpg
- Burks needs ~25 mpg
- Kanter needs ~20 mpg
- Favors needs to start

If we make it past the 1st round this year, it will be because of the four players I have listed above. There are reports of Burks being an absolute monster. Everyone seems to think that Favors will never be a bench player ever again. With a good goes being that Al Jefferson will be the focal point of our offense again this year, that leaves Millsap as the odd big man out. In order to disperse minutes evenly, Favors will need to take minutes from Kanter at the 5. In order for Favors to get more minutes at the 4, and less at the 5 to give to Kanter, Millsap will need to play some 3. Playing 3 gives Marv less time, who honestly should be starting.

The more I think of this, the more complicated I realize divvying up this playing time will be.



Things the coaching staff probably wants:

-Favors to start
-Making sure Al always plays with players who space the floor properly/will punish teams for sagging into the paint


All I can assume is that the coaching staff will be looking at lineups that compliment Al best when he plays, meaning that he will probably always play with some COMPETENT shooters. Thats why Foye might even get a starting nod ahead of Burks if Marv ever were to come off the bench, because he would suit Al as a player better.


Yikes. Corbin is gonna have a HELL of a time this season. Theres seriously a logjam at every position except PG.
 
dalamon said:
Sigh, this is the only thing I can foresee working.

Honestly, here are my major desires:

- Hayward needs >30 mpg
- Burks needs ~25 mpg
- Kanter needs ~20 mpg
- Favors needs to start

If we make it past the 1st round this year, it will be because of the four players I have listed above. There are reports of Burks being an absolute monster. Everyone seems to think that Favors will never be a bench player ever again. With a good goes being that Al Jefferson will be the focal point of our offense again this year, that leaves Millsap as the odd big man out. In order to disperse minutes evenly, Favors will need to take minutes from Kanter at the 5. In order for Favors to get more minutes at the 4, and less at the 5 to give to Kanter, Millsap will need to play some 3. Playing 3 gives Marv less time, who honestly should be starting.

The more I think of this, the more complicated I realize divvying up this playing time will be.

Things the coaching staff probably wants:

-Favors to start
-Making sure Al always plays with players who space the floor properly/will punish teams for sagging into the paint

All I can assume is that the coaching staff will be looking at lineups that compliment Al best when he plays, meaning that he will probably always play with some COMPETENT shooters. Thats why Foye might even get a starting nod ahead of Burks if Marv ever were to come off the bench, because he would suit Al as a player better.

Yikes. Corbin is gonna have a HELL of a time this season. Theres seriously a logjam at every position except PG.
Click to expand...

Something like this could work, but I don't know how Corbin would swing it. I also want Kanter and Burks to get more playing time, assuming they're ready. If Kanter and Burks start ripping people new orifices, then make room for them one way or another.

48 (1)
Mo: 30
Watson/Foye/Tinsley: 18

48 (2)
Hayward: 16
Burks: 20
Foye: 12

48 (3)
Marvin: 26
Millsap: 8
Hayward: 14

48 (4)
Favors: 26
Millsap: 22

48 (5)
Al: 30
Kanter: 14
Favors: 4
 
IMO, this is how it should break down. You have 96 minutes at the 4 and 5. Favors should see 30 minutes. Kanter should see around 16. He needs floor time to develop. They both do. That leaves 50 minutes at the 4/5. Jeff should and will play around 30 minutes of those. Millsap should play the remaining 20 which means he then should play another 10 minutes or so at the 3.


If Millsap gets 10 minutes there (30 total minutes for him), Marvin can still get 25 there, and Hayward can get the remaining 13.

Hayward should then see 17 minutes at the 2 (that's 30 total for him and I think he should see a little more of his time at the 2) with Burks getting around 23 and Foye getting the remaining eight minutes. Ideally, Burks would see more like 25-28 minutes but leaving so little time for Foye is probably not realistic.

So the answer if you look back? About 35 minutes. It'll probably be more like 30-32 though.
 
i don't like the approach of backing into minutes by making assumptions like, "jeff should and will play around 30" or whatever. nobody should be guaranteed anything on october 4th. competition is good for everybody, and particularly on a team with uber-depth, nobody's minutes are holy and the exact minutes each guy plays are less important that winning the damn game.

mo's half right about what ty's approach should be, except that i don't think he has to sell anything. eight guys are in a contract year, so i'm not sure they'll be buying anyway. but corbin has the advantage that, if guys AREN'T playing with the type of urgency, he can sit them the hell down. is al/paul pouting because he thinks he'll have a hard time as a free agent coming off a 26-mpg season? that's fine, if he's not playing hard, then 26 turns into 22, and then 22 turns into 18, and what will free agency look like THEN?

what i'm talking about is basketball capitalism at its best, and like it or not, it's how things get decided in the meritocracy of the NBA. work harder, play more. nobody's minutes are holy. not al's, not paul's, not derrick's. you play because you EARNED it, not because coach feels like he owes you X amounts of opportunities to develop. the worst way to develop a young stud is to give him things he hasn't earned because you create entitlement issues and you rob a guy of the learning that success is the result of hard work.

/rant
 
theNBAnerd said:
i don't like the approach of backing into minutes by making assumptions like, "jeff should and will play around 30" or whatever. nobody should be guaranteed anything on october 4th. competition is good for everybody, and particularly on a team with uber-depth, nobody's minutes are holy and the exact minutes each guy plays are less important that winning the damn game.

mo's half right about what ty's approach should be, except that i don't think he has to sell anything. eight guys are in a contract year, so i'm not sure they'll be buying anyway. but corbin has the advantage that, if guys AREN'T playing with the type of urgency, he can sit them the hell down. is al/paul pouting because he thinks he'll have a hard time as a free agent coming off a 26-mpg season? that's fine, if he's not playing hard, then 26 turns into 22, and then 22 turns into 18, and what will free agency look like THEN?

what i'm talking about is basketball capitalism at its best, and like it or not, it's how things get decided in the meritocracy of the NBA. work harder, play more. nobody's minutes are holy. not al's, not paul's, not derrick's. you play because you EARNED it, not because coach feels like he owes you X amounts of opportunities to develop. the worst way to develop a young stud is to give him things he hasn't earned because you create entitlement issues and you rob a guy of the learning that success is the result of hard work.

/rant
Click to expand...



If you think that Jefferson will average <30mpg this season then I've got an ocean-view villa in Edmonton to sell you.
 
dalamon said:
If you think that Jefferson will average <30mpg this season then I've got an ocean-view villa in Edmonton to sell you.
Click to expand...

i was just using al as an example. (although a guy can hope, can't he?)

my point is just that nobody is guaranteed anything on a deep-as-hell team with no all-stars. every guy is going to have to earn every minute... and that's not a bad thing.

i'm not granting anybody a 30-minute guarantee on the third day of two-a-days. i'm pretty sure ty feels the same way.
 
Some good points in this thread.

I may have been reaching slightly when I talked about Marvin's command of minutes, but if he is playing like we expect, then he'll command at least 26 min/gm.

As for our big-minute guys last year, they'll be expecting them again; Al, Paul, and Hay are all 28+.

We all agree that Favors needs to be at or above 28.

My point with starting this thread was that minutes are already too tight for Kanter to get what he needs. Next, some minutes can be freed up if Millsap plays the 3, but that creates another jam for Burks (who I hope will regularly play at least 23 minutes).

This isn't an easy job for Corbin, and he's gonna have to mess with traditional positions, namely the Small Forward and the Point Guard... where guys like Millsap, Burks, and Foye can find minutes. He should also look at what Popovich has done: players like Green have been very engaged and productive in 20-23 min/gm, and he gives vets the night off or very light duty on back to backs.

My fear is that Corbin doesn't have the stones to do any of this.
 
NAOS said:
Some good points in this thread.

I may have been reaching slightly when I talked about Marvin's command of minutes, but if he is playing like we expect, then he'll command at least 26 min/gm.

As for our big-minute guys last year, they'll be expecting them again; Al, Paul, and Hay are all 28+.

We all agree that Favors needs to be at or above 28.

My point with starting this thread was that minutes are already too tight for Kanter to get what he needs. Next, some minutes can be freed up if Millsap plays the 3, but that creates another jam for Burks (who I hope will regularly play at least 23 minutes).

This isn't an easy job for Corbin, and he's gonna have to mess with traditional positions, namely the Small Forward and the Point Guard... where guys like Millsap, Burks, and Foye can find minutes. He should also look at what Popovich has done: players like Green have been very engaged and productive in 20-23 min/gm, and he gives vets the night off or very light duty on back to backs.

My fear is that Corbin doesn't have the stones to do any of this.
Click to expand...

all true, but i still wouldn't solve it by planning on 6 minutes of paul-at-SF per half. teams will see that coming and put a small, quick SF out there that paul can't keep up with. and before you say, "well then paul will have a mouse in the house on the other end and we'll take advantage there", remember how many teams have solved a matchup problem by zoning the jazz into an offensive torpor, and also remember how bad our backup PGs are.

also a good point about ty. we haven't talked about it a lot, but it's a contract year for him, too, which means there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to win now... that encourages a lot of coaches to err on the side of playing vets. not that i think corbin will fall in that, just that if the going gets rough, self-preservation might kick in.

assuming every guy plays every game, 28-28-28 for the 3 star bigs leaves 12 minutes for kanter. realistically, someone will miss a game somewhere along the way, but still: this would be easier if they flipped al for a backup big man and a point guard.
 
Locke had a tweet about Corbin commenting on Millsap @ SF. Basically said if the match-ups allow it.
 
FWIW, you're usually on top of things pretty well NAOS, but to not put a couple options for fewer minutes was not the best way to go. I say 32 minutes.
 
Paul's not playing 3, at least not to start. Marvin probably averages 26 - 28 minutes a game playing exclusively 3. He'll probably have the benefit early on of being in Ty's rotation to close halves and games which will up his minutes. But if he falters, and he very likely could, his minutes could drop into the 23 - 26 category.

What will help his minutes is whether Ty thinks he's the best defensive option alongside Hayward. It won't matter if he actually is, only if Ty thinks he is, and the likelihood is Ty will. So going strictly Vegas, I'd say Marvin's minutes are pretty secure in the 28 range short of a huge offensive collapse.
 
theNBAnerd said:
not if we can't make a play. and with these PGs, i'm not sure we can.
Click to expand...
I think it comes down to whether or not we can hit some outside shots. Obviously, Watson and Tinsley are weak shooters. But MO >> Harris. And Marvin >> Howard or Carroll or CJ. So Burks and Hayward at SG need to be better than the Raja and the Burks and Hayward of last season. Should be doable.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top