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How Tanking ruins the NBA and possible solutions

Different approach

I like simple solutions. Use the record over last 5 seasons to set lottery order. Still building towards long-term parity, but tanking would become very rare.

Downside:
-- makes cycle time for recovery longer
-- gives more top picks to most terrible franchises, where potential superstars go to die


Alternatives:
----Exclude last half of the current season.
----3 or 4 yr versus 5
 
Here are some numbers I've crunched.

I took all the drafts between 1980 and 2005 and looked at the All-Stars they yielded. In those 26 years, 97 future All-Stars were picked as one of the first 10 picks. There were 72 All-Stars either picked 11th or lower or not drafted at all.

Hence, during this time, a top 10 pick had a 37% chance of turning out to be an All-Star. Conversely, this means if you had a top-10 pick, there was a 63% chance that he'd either turn out garbage or a bit player.
 
Here are some numbers I've crunched.

I took all the drafts between 1980 and 2005 and looked at the All-Stars they yielded. In those 26 years, 97 future All-Stars were picked as one of the first 10 picks. There were 72 All-Stars either picked 11th or lower or not drafted at all.

Hence, during this time, a top 10 pick had a 37% chance of turning out to be an All-Star. Conversely, this means if you had a top-10 pick, there was a 63% chance that he'd either turn out garbage or a bit player.

where did you get the 37%? 97/169= 57% of getting an all star with a top 10 pick.
 
I've grown a little bit tired lately reading guys blasting JL3, ridiculing Marvin, wishing Corbin to hell and debating over Biedrins and Gobert.
Due to the questionable quality of Jazz games I've been transitioning from rewatching the full games during the next evening to rewatching full quarters that might have been competitive and interesting according to the boxscore to watching the LP 8 min summaries during meals and now I've reached the 2 min summaries with little interest to rewatch double digit losses with uninspired coaching. But gotta do something in the morning while brushing my teeth.

That's fine. I do the same thing. The key here is this: Do you want the Jazz to compete for the 5-8th seed? Or do you want them to compete for a title? If it is 5-8, then you have every right to be mad. If you want them to win it all, this is what you have to do.

Other teams I actually enjoyed watching include the Pacers, Thunder, Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Magic, Hawks, Pistons and Suns. They have been playing some exciting fine to watch basketball.

The NBA has gotten a lot better. For the first time since Jordan was in the league, I have enjoyed watching other teams play as well. Especially GS.

But these serious tanking efforts this year are lowering the quality of the league and the league officials can be happy this is not a contract year for television rights, even though ESPN will certainly point out that once a decade there's a tank campaign and they are right to do so, not only to lower their costs, also to ensure better quality for the fans.

Not true at all. You contradict yourself here. You talk about all the good basketball being played, then you talk about how tiny little SLC is going to hurt the NBA with TV deals. NY, Brooklyn, LA, Houston are all relevant. That is all that matters.

So as long as we got a system that grants you better odds to win the #1 with a worse record you'll try to outtank. We've already a CBA in place that punishes long term contracts with non franchise faces severely which should increase the free agent pool each summer increasingly giving more teams a chance to strengthen via free agency.
Look at last summer. The Bobcats, Hawks and Pistons wanted talent influx even though they are a small market while not handing out horrible contracts to good players. Millsap is already one of the most sought after contracts by pretenders that wanna make the jump to contenders. Jefferson might be slightly overpaid but would prolly have also accepted a smaller pay. 3 years duration limit the damage as well. Josh Smith is also market value even though he doesn't really fit the Pistons needs, which is why he may turn out to be a bad contract.

This is fine, but how do you do this? The NBA union would never allow it. At least not right now. I think there should be no guaranteed contracts. But, it is a pipe dream.

With an increasing number of talents declaring after freshmen and sophomore campaigns you have a lot of uncertainty with your talent in how they will turn out and each year has several gems in the 10s, 20s and sometimes deep into the 2nd round. So having high draftpicks enlarges your chances but doesn't guarantee your franchise success. There's plenty of roads that lead to Rome. Going the shortest way blindfolded is not a good choice though, Cleveland.

The team that took Bennet #1? That is just dumb. Sorry. Bad example. Why not bring up OKC or SA or Chicago or Orlando? The draft has helped those franchises out immensely. Or Boston. While Boston didn't draft their Championship, they were able to turn those picks into Garnett and Allen.

But in general front offices are developing in a direction where they rely more on analytics, tools and less on former NBA players who do a good newspaper quote. Yes I'm talking to you Isiah! So I'd argue they are acting more reasonable in general. The massive tanking is a sideeffect of that. They sold tryhard seasons to fans who are now extremely disgruntled to have paid money to not go to actual games of their teams. But in the digital era memory is short and drafting a top prospect will make them keep their seasontickets or get it back 1 year later.

I don't get this. The Jazz want a title. They would have made more money in the short term keeping Al and Millsap and Horny and making the playoffs the next 5 years. The Jazz aren't doing this because of disgruntled fans. They sell a lot less seats this year than last year. The fans have spoken with their wallets and the fans want Al back.

So my proposal is: GET RID OF WEIGHED LOTTERY AS WE KNOW IT. You can't award a team a 4-9% higher chance to get #1 for winning a duel of losing the most games. Don't exclude playoff teams from it, so you don't give incentive to miss them.
So who participates in the lottery? All the teams that missed the playoffs and all the 1st round losers. That gives you a total of 22 teams. The 14 non playoff team get a slightly higher chance of scoring a higher seed.

Terrible idea. So, OKC goes to the playoffs their first year. They lose as an 8 seed. They get the number one pick. Is that fair? Does that promote parody? Nope. Or, OKC is terrible and never gets Harden, but the Lakers get Harden. Huh? Bad idea.

The bottom 7 teams each get 6% of the lottery tickets for the #1 drawing. The next 7 each get a 4.857% chance and the 8 first round playoff losers each get a 3% chance. This would take any tanking incentive out of the game. Are you going to pull off shenanigans to gain 1.43% more chance? If you're a playoff team you don't do this for less than 2% more chance.
At the same time you make the draft lottery a bigger event and don't only draw the first 3, but you draw from 1 down to 10 and fill the rest according to standings. You could also make it even bigger but that would seem pointless IMO.
That obviously could give you some risk that some team that has an improving nucleus could land another #1 pick, but if you don't include them you're going to risk shifting the tankings from the cellar dwellers to the borderline playoff teams that wanna drop out. Just think about 2014...You'd rather have a 5% chance at Wiggins or get a 4-0 spanking from the Heat/Spurs/Thunder...Self explanatory. So you're not punishing any team for trying and rewarding good basketball.
Of course every 20 years that could lead to some ridiculous contention window, but I have further solutions for that.

I disagree. This draft has up to 7 franchise cornerstones in it...and only one team definitely tanking right now: your Utah Jazz. So, even Wiggins, Parker, Smart, etc aren't enough to promote league wide tanking from day one.

And as far as "punishing" a team for making the playoffs...they make a ton of money for making the playoffs. They get experience. Not every 8th seed is a borderline bad team. OKC was an 8th seed their first year in the playoffs. They had no intention of tanking.

First of all if you make rookie contracts scaled, don't leave teams the option to pay 80-120% of the scale. a scale is a scale...

I'm okay with this. BUT, another problem. Now you have screwed the agents over, because a rookie wouldn't need one. That won't happen. So, another pipe dream.

Make rookie contracts incentive based and have these incentives covered by the league and don't count towards the cap. So if you're outplaying your rookie contract you don't get punished and you get rewarded. After 4 years players are restricted but I'd introduce 1 change to the max contract landscape...

OR...just have it be the incentive is a new contract after a couple of years.

The NBA has very few true franchise players and last thing you want to maintain competitiveness is these players teaming up without brutal repercussions.
Each team has 1 franchise player slot, for whom they can pay a starting salary equal to 30% of the cap starting after year 3 as nowadays you have players peaking in their early to mid 20s(athletic freaks like Howard, Stoudemire, Rose), mid 20s until threshold of 30(Durant, James seem good candidates) and sometimes even early to mid 30s(Dirk, MJ, Stockton, Kobe). This way you get paid what a team thinks you're worth from the beginning and teams can really attack youngsters after year 4 with these kind of aggressive offers if the team has 2 superstars.
So you have that 1 slot that you can pay a player a lot on and every other player can start at 20% of the cap with 4.5% raises. So stars would have to forfeit a lot of money to team up or you'd have to be playing a lot of years for the same ballclubs to reach the big numbers as a secondary options with 4.5% raises and new deals giving 105% of the previous contract.

Love the franchise tag. The NBA should have it. Good luck getting the player's union to agree to the rest of that.

This would leave a more balanced landscape and guarantee competitiveness. I might have of course not considered some obstacles or left out some on purpose. This would of course put new challenges on teams to put together quality teams as team chemistry and coaches might be more important than ever.
It would strengthen franchise identity for top tier talent as they'd have much to lose by swapping teams. I'm not even sure that the franchise player is a good idea but I really dislike these new age big 3 so much that I think it's important to get rid of that. They really cause half of the league to be starving in franchise talent. Building the right team with complementary pieces and stuff would be very important.

That's it for now as I fear any additional word will discourage more potential readers and participants to bring up their own ideas.

Basically, all you have done is taken the responsibility off the owners and put it on the players. 100% not fair. It is a nice idea, but will never happen.

Forget lottery, draft, etc. You want to get rid of tanking? Get rid of guaranteed contracts. Problem solved. Do you think GS players willingly lose games knowing that GS can cut them at the end of the year and another team would look at them willing losing games and want to sign them? No Way. That is why there is tanking in the NBA and not nearly as much in the NFL. Good luck getting a player playing for a chance to play for you or another team the next year agreeing to tanking or sitting out a game with a minor injury.

Look at how ruthless the NFL is: Austin Collie is signed by the Patriots. Gets hurt. They cut him. 3-4 weeks later he is healthy again. They resign him. Do you think Collie would ever agree to drop a ball or not run the right route? No way. He is playing for his livelihood out there.
 
Hey bro, have a read of this. I think it would solve the tanking problem somewhat without having to rejig the whole system entirely.

Also provides a nice background info on the NBA lottery... etc..

https://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20131114/nba-tanking-lottery-fix-solution/index.html

In summary, do the following with lottery odds (based on last year's results):

Screen_Shot_2013_12_11_at_1_19_28_am.png


This should eliminate "heavy tanking" as the bottom most teams would have equal chance at the #1 pick.

Problem solved.

So, you penalize Utah for 20+ years of success and reward Orlando, Charlotte, and Cleveland for sucking? That's not fair.
 
the relegation idea scares me and i'm glad they don't do it here in american leagues. no easier way to render your team entirely irrelevant or eternally mediocre.
 
Wish you had read my entry properly

That's fine. I do the same thing. The key here is this: Do you want the Jazz to compete for the 5-8th seed? Or do you want them to compete for a title? If it is 5-8, then you have every right to be mad. If you want them to win it all, this is what you have to do.


Under the current CBA the Jazz have to go hardcore tank. I'd love another CBA that would allow them to stay competitive and use their skillset to return to contention that doesn't need an extreme amount of luck(compare Houston, Indiana)


The NBA has gotten a lot better. For the first time since Jordan was in the league, I have enjoyed watching other teams play as well. Especially GS.

I'd love to enjoy watching 25/30 teams every year every game, not just 5-10

Not true at all. You contradict yourself here. You talk about all the good basketball being played, then you talk about how tiny little SLC is going to hurt the NBA with TV deals. NY, Brooklyn, LA, Houston are all relevant. That is all that matters.

Well if 20 teams tank annually even LA/Boston/Chicago/Miami fans will turn off the TV after quarter 3 with a 30 point lead. With the New York teams it's a 30 point deficit. Sometimes even 40. That lowers customer contacts via commercials and stuff. Thus it lowers the quality of the league. And you can bet right now that Boston as a major player would get somer serious repercussions if they did blatant tanking so early in the season.

This is fine, but how do you do this? The NBA union would never allow it. At least not right now. I think there should be no guaranteed contracts. But, it is a pipe dream.

NBPA is a joke and will continue. The NBA simply locks them out and at some point all the small contract guys run into bankruptcy and the NBA makes some smaller concessions that they planned to do anyways. You won't see contracts longer than 4 years no more with guys who aren't 2nd option talented. When getting older you'll see more 2 and 3 year contracts like David West, Al and Millsap got. Smove was an exception by one of the dumbest GMs in the league who's gone next summer(Bye bye Joe Dumbass)



The team that took Bennet #1? That is just dumb. Sorry. Bad example. Why not bring up OKC or SA or Chicago or Orlando? The draft has helped those franchises out immensely. Or Boston. While Boston didn't draft their Championship, they were able to turn those picks into Garnett and Allen.

Well read again. The Cavs went the easy way. Sucking hardcore while not having proper scouting. That's the fastest way to ignore FA multiple years and try to lose.

OKC is the only of your mentioned teams that went tank for multiple years before turning the corner. SA was bad 1 year, Chicago had 1 lucky year after their Ben Wallace contract and Ben Gordon situation. Orlando has 1 top 10 pick if I'm not mistaken. Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Moe Harkless are all 10-25 picks in that range. So they're looking more like Indiana!
My system also includes a more aggressive free agency and you'll have twice the guys there annually for whose services you can compete. So you can still pick your horrible contracts, but due to length and roster impact they'll most likely be not as bad. So teams like OKC and the Cavs would rather try to hit the high draft picks not more than twice a row when starting from scratch and always round out rosters with quality veterans.


I don't get this. The Jazz want a title. They would have made more money in the short term keeping Al and Millsap and Horny and making the playoffs the next 5 years. The Jazz aren't doing this because of disgruntled fans. They sell a lot less seats this year than last year. The fans have spoken with their wallets and the fans want Al back.

In my system they'd be able to still make money every year while also having good chances to utitlize both draft and free agency to improve. Rebuilding would just look a little bit different. You'd attack lucky teams like OKC in free agency with your franchise player slot to get guys like Westbrook and Harden. LAC wouldn't have both Griffin and Paul. Portland would already start being afraid if they can keep both Aldridge and Lillard.

Terrible idea. So, OKC goes to the playoffs their first year. They lose as an 8 seed. They get the number one pick. Is that fair? Does that promote parody? Nope. Or, OKC is terrible and never gets Harden, but the Lakers get Harden. Huh? Bad idea.

As explained earlier: 19 year old next level talents don't exactly help you win playoff games. So they get their Westbrook to Durant and then they need 1-2 years till Westbrook actually starts playing efficient and has lost his AAU hero ball tendencies. Then they have a 1-3 year contention window with a 21-23 year old Westbrook who in all honesty wasn't exactly finals MVP at this age and eventually you already have to trade him after year 3 because he doesn't accept a non franchise player extension and you don't wanna lose him for nuttin. That's still better than creating superteams like the Heat and Thunder who can do that crap for half a decade. Same with the Celtics. Counter example is obviously the Spurs, but Tony Parker signed his low extension before he got a finals MVP, "Rest a Timmy" was introduced and league rules were adapted to allow the new Point Guard superstars to carry teams. So the Spurs with guys leaving money at the table would be the only way to create 2 superstar anchored superteams. That's something that you can't forbid. If Batman says to his Robin: Hey buddy I got bigger endorsement contracts you take the franchise player slot and I get my dollars from Nike, that's okay. If Robin says: I'll stick with you because I value winning over money and rather have rings and memories once I quit and play for less money than I'm worth - That's okay.

I disagree. This draft has up to 7 franchise cornerstones in it...and only one team definitely tanking right now: your Utah Jazz. So, even Wiggins, Parker, Smart, etc aren't enough to promote league wide tanking from day one.

Well I discussed why I wanted to give the playoff teams the chance to win lottery picks and said: If you don't give them a chance at top7 or top10 or whatever is drawn you have a big incentive to drop out of the playoffs. Compare Milwaukee last year. If they had last year's roster problems this year, they'd tank down the road I can guarantee that. They even trolled their fanbase by signing OJ Mayo, Gary Neal, Zaza Pachulia, Larry Sanders and trading for Caron Butler in their rebuilding window when they just want them to make 90% of their cap that they have to spent anyways and not help them win games. Now everybody knows they're deluxe trolls and they sell season tickets for $99 cause none is going near that building for real money.

And as far as "punishing" a team for making the playoffs...they make a ton of money for making the playoffs. They get experience. Not every 8th seed is a borderline bad team. OKC was an 8th seed their first year in the playoffs. They had no intention of tanking.

That's the byproduct of the current CBA where a lot of West teams are more attractive and a 50-32 record is a 8th seed. If they won a #1 that year they wouldn't have had time to groom that guy and would have lost him anyways. And as I elaborated earlier: You can't have more than 1 superstar for more than 2 years long term in my version. But I applauded someone for coming up with the idea of lottery lockouts. Make it this way: If you have a top5 pick 2 years in a row you're locked out the next 2 years from selections in that area. So you have to look for other ways to improve your roster, like finding diamonds in the rough, trading for stash players and free agency.

I'm okay with this. BUT, another problem. Now you have screwed the agents over, because a rookie wouldn't need one. That won't happen. So, another pipe dream.

Agents negotiate 120% contracts for 99% of the players anyways. Their commission on rookie contracts isn't that high anyways and they'd still have to work the phones with Nike, Adidas and whatever other products you wanna endorse. Charity appearances must be negotiated and all that stuff. So it's not like they have nothing to do. They still have to get them individual trainers prepare them for pre draft workouts and as the contract negotiations for rookie contracts end the same way anyways it's just that.

OR...just have it be the incentive is a new contract after a couple of years.

You can still combine it and reward players for good performances. But it's not necessary. Earning $1M isn't that bad I heard. Is it?

Love the franchise tag. The NBA should have it. Good luck getting the player's union to agree to the rest of that.

Lock them out, starve them out like Dinosaurs after meteor impacts.

Basically, all you have done is taken the responsibility off the owners and put it on the players. 100% not fair. It is a nice idea, but will never happen.

Forget lottery, draft, etc. You want to get rid of tanking? Get rid of guaranteed contracts. Problem solved. Do you think GS players willingly lose games knowing that GS can cut them at the end of the year and another team would look at them willing losing games and want to sign them? No Way. That is why there is tanking in the NBA and not nearly as much in the NFL. Good luck getting a player playing for a chance to play for you or another team the next year agreeing to tanking or sitting out a game with a minor injury.

Look at how ruthless the NFL is: Austin Collie is signed by the Patriots. Gets hurt. They cut him. 3-4 weeks later he is healthy again. They resign him. Do you think Collie would ever agree to drop a ball or not run the right route? No way. He is playing for his livelihood out there.

I have no clue about the NFL but IMO all I did is eliminate most of the tanking and multi year roster rebuilds with high picks. The system rewards financial sacrifices with higher chance of success. Good General Managers will be very important who have understanding to put together fitting pieces on the court and not just brute force via superstars and luxury tax. Small markets will get a significant boost with the franchise player slot.
Oh and 1 more thing: Forbid the same Agencies to have more than 5 different NBA players under contract so you don't create weird situations. Also the same owner of an agency can't own multiple agencies.
Make this a smaller business where agencies can't bully teams via threatening to withhold their clients in free agency to a team.
 
the relegation idea scares me and i'm glad they don't do it here in american leagues. no easier way to render your team entirely irrelevant or eternally mediocre.

It is okay to support a team that is mediocre or irrelevant, you know?
 
Decided to add some more stats to the conversation. Here is a chart showing the average of win shares for all the players drafted in each draft slot (1-30) over the past 11 years.

winshares_vs_draftposition_chart.jpg

I don't really adore win shares as a stat, but career PER wasn't easily attainable. If there was interest in a chart that showed that, I could possibly work on one. It'd take a while, though.

EDIT: Why is my pic so small? Can I get some mod help or something?
 
In case I can't get the pic resized, you should still be able to see the noticeable curve of the graph. While there are busts and hidden gems in every draft, there is certainly a much stronger chance of getting a great player in the first 10 rounds.
 
There were 260 top 10 picks in those 26 years. 97/260 is 37%. The other 163 players were not, so we have 63% there.

Shouldn't you be looking at how many players in the top 10 ended up not being all stars and then adding that to 97?
 
Shouldn't you be looking at how many players in the top 10 ended up not being all stars and then adding that to 97?

I did. That's the 163 players.

Out of 260 players drafted in the top 10 between 1980 and 1996, 97 played in at least one All-Star game and 163 did not. I don't understand what the confusion is.
 
In case I can't get the pic resized, you should still be able to see the noticeable curve of the graph. While there are busts and hidden gems in every draft, there is certainly a much stronger chance of getting a great player in the first 10 rounds.

I'm not denying that, I'm talking about what the odds are that you get a great player when picking in the 1-10 range versus getting a crap player in the same range.
 
So, you penalize Utah for 20+ years of success and reward Orlando, Charlotte, and Cleveland for sucking? That's not fair.

The really lousy teams would still get the best shot at the top picks. But they would have no incentive to out-stink each other. That would mean that, when general managers constructed their teams over the summer, they would be more likely to add a player or two that would improve their team, because the downside risk (losing ping-pong balls for the lottery) would not be there.

This would also help take care of the perception problem. Once the season was underway, there would be no question: The players on the court would try to win. So would the coaches. This would make the worst teams more watchable, which would be good for fans, and good for the credibility of the league. There would still be bad teams, but that's true in every league. You just don't want anybody thinking it is good to be the worst.

The teams in the upper tier of the lottery would also be unlikely to tank. They would have too much to gain by making the playoffs, even as a No. 8 seed: at least two home games' worth of revenue, positive publicity with the fan base, playoff experience for younger players, and the once-a-decade chance of pulling an upset. That's not worth giving up for a two-percent chance at the No. 1 pick. That's why the bottom half of the lottery would be weighted -- you can't have teams bailing on a playoff race.

Oh, I suppose that in the final week or two of the season, teams that have been eliminated from the playoff hunt might tank, to slightly increase their lottery odds. But they would be tanking a game or two. They wouldn't be tanking the whole season.

Some general managers would still decide to rebuild by trading their best players for draft choices and young talent, and to free up salary-cap space. But that falls under patience, not tanking. You see similar moves in other sports.

Teams are like people; for the most part, they act out of self-interest. The NBA just has to make sure it is not in team's best interests to tank. A simple tweak of the lottery would help.
 
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I have the solution. For the next four season, the last place team will be removed from the league and its players put into a contraction draft starting in reverse lottery finishing order then open the waiver bidding wire for playoff teams. The talent is spread too thin and competition too low, and this will solve two problems at once.
 
I'm not denying that, I'm talking about what the odds are that you get a great player when picking in the 1-10 range versus getting a crap player in the same range.

Then I'm confused where your point is going after that. Of course there are busts everywhere in the draft (as I mentioned before). However, you have a much higher chance of drafting a star player in the 1-10 range than outside of the 1-10 range.

Assuming that you need star players to compete at the highest level (pretty sure that's a hard point to argue against), then your best chance of competing is getting a high lottery pick. Logic seems to check out to me.
 
I have the solution. For the next four season, the last place team will be removed from the league and its players put into a contraction draft starting in reverse lottery finishing order then open the waiver bidding wire for playoff teams. The talent is spread too thin and competition too low, and this will solve two problems at once.

Not bad, but it's a short-term solution, tanking-wise. And I think four teams contracted is a bit much.
 
Then I'm confused where your point is going after that. Of course there are busts everywhere in the draft (as I mentioned before). However, you have a much higher chance of drafting a star player in the 1-10 range than outside of the 1-10 range.

Assuming that you need star players to compete at the highest level (pretty sure that's a hard point to argue against), then your best chance of competing is getting a high lottery pick. Logic seems to check out to me.

I think his point is more along the lines of:
You still gotta select the right players which hasn't been exactly the case as evidenced by his numbers. Also you can find a lot of diamonds in the rough as only 60% of the total allstars were picked in the top10.
 
But if we darft Jabari Parker and he's the second coming of Michael Jordan, then your whole logic that I didn't read becomes irrelevant, right.

Oh, but you bout it bout it, Doe?
 
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