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I want apologies for all the Niang hate on this board!!!

LogGrad98 said:
To be fair I was taking this entire season, which is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions.
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I think he's trying to expand his game a bit and is taking some additional contested threes. I think guys are staying closer too... so he might feel he has to force a couple up to keep his high volume. Catch and shoot 3s he is at 38% and was 40% last year. Really a small, small difference. I think he should limit his looks just a hair tbh. Play a little more within himself.
 
MT Steve said:
I get that, but think about the volume.

He's shot 37/101 from 3 - 36.6%. If he'd made just 3 more of those 3's - think about that, just 3 total, he'd basically be in line with last year at 40%. Just 3. Spread those 9 points out over this season, we're talking about 0.3 points per game.

With a 40% 3 point shooter, you wouldn't necessarily expect him to make 40 of them every time he takes 100 shots. More realistically, the first 100 might be 35, the next might be 45, etc... Making 37 of 100 isn't alarming for a 40% 3 pt shooter.
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I also think bench players are also going to have more variance. They may have a few games where they get 12 minutes and go 0-2 and just aren't in the flow of the game at any point. They don't get the chance to right the ship.
 
MT Steve said:
I get that, but think about the volume.

He's shot 37/101 from 3 - 36.6%. If he'd made just 3 more of those 3's - think about that, just 3 total, he'd basically be in line with last year at 40%. Just 3. Spread those 9 points out over this season, we're talking about 0.3 points per game.

With a 40% 3 point shooter, you wouldn't necessarily expect him to make 40 of them every time he takes 100 shots. More realistically, the first 100 might be 35, the next might be 45, etc... Making 37 of 100 isn't alarming for a 40% 3 pt shooter.
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This is why you have to drop the outlier. Again I ask, what is more indicative of his performance, the 7/7 or the multiple 1/X games this year? Is it more reasonable to expect his next game to be 2/7 or 7/7?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think he's trying to expand his game a bit and is taking some additional contested threes. I think guys are staying closer too... so he might feel he has to force a couple up to keep his high volume. Catch and shoot 3s he is at 38% and was 40% last year. Really a small, small difference. I think he should limit his looks just a hair tbh. Play a little more within himself.
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Agreed
 
idiot said:
Sure it's an "outlier" in the sense that it's extreme. But that still says nothing about whether it should be excluded from an evaluation of his shooting. If you want to go the small-sample-size direction for evaluating his shooting overall, then we can have a conversation. If you want to say that Georges is typically either very hot or very cold, then we can try to analyze that. But you just can't throw out his best shooting game to make the argument that he's not a good shooter.
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I didn't say we should exclude it but I think log was simply saying that niang wasn't shooting very good from three this season prior to last night.
I don't see that as being unfair or untrue.

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fishonjazz said:
I don't think everyone has 7-7 games. In fact in fact I think very very few do.

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right but guys have games where they go 6/7 or 7/9... its all factored in and rightfully so imo.

The only samples I'd pull out are garbage time stats.

The great news is we have a 9th man that is capable of going supernova on occasion. Whether that is 7/7 or 3/4 or 4/5... its a huge boost when you get it.
 
MT Steve said:
Would you actually?

Last season in 66 games he shot 40% from 3. This season in 31 games he's shooting 36.6% from 3.

To predict that he'll finish this season between 35-36% is to say that the first 30 games this season deserve the exact same amount of weight as last season's 66 games (more than double the population).

Why would you believe that though? The larger a population, the more reliable it is, unless there's specific reasons to believe otherwise. I assume recency bias is what's tilting Log to place more weight on this season's 30 games, which is why I made the tongue-in-cheek post earlier praising Niang's previous 7 games, to demonstrate the flaw in that line-of-thinking. Hell even if you throw out last night's game, he was still shooting 42% from 3 over the past couple weeks.
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I just watch him play and see the shots he takes (often rushed and with a very close defender) and I think he will get more minutes against better opponents (non garbage time) this season and he will be on people's radar more and be gameplanned against more.

I think niang was really unknown last year (and the jazz as a team weren't talked about as much) and played mostly garbage time but this year teams will know of him more and he will play against better rotational players more

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LogGrad98 said:
This is why you have to drop the outlier. Again I ask, what is more indicative of his performance, the 7/7 or the multiple 1/X games this year? Is it more reasonable to expect his next game to be 2/7 or 7/7?
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Nobody's arguing that we can expect him to shoot 100% on high volume next game, or in any future game for that matter. Just because he's extremely unlikely to shoot 100% in a given night does not mean that last night's impact on his overall shooting % for the season should just be ignored.

Let me frame it like this: Why do you believe that the order in which the makes occur vs the misses should dictate future expectations for his overall shooting %?

Like, he happened to make his last 7 shots. What if, in an alternate universe, he went 0/7 last night but a random selection of 7 of his previous misses this season were instead makes. Is he suddenly a better shooter in this alternate universe?

Obviously not.
 
MT Steve said:
Nobody's arguing that we can expect him to shoot 100% on high volume next game, or in any future game for that matter. Just because he's extremely unlikely to shoot 100% in a given night does not mean that last night's impact on his overall shooting % for the season should just be ignored.

Let me frame it like this: Why do you believe that the order in which the makes occur vs the misses should dictate future expectations for his overall shooting %?

Like, he happened to make his last 7 shots. What if, in an alternate universe, he went 0/7 last night but a random selection of 7 of his previous misses this season were instead makes. Is he suddenly a better shooter in this alternate universe?

Obviously not.
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Well you are discounting consistency, which matters in a shooter. I would argue if the 36% were more consistent game to game it would mean he is a more reliable shooter than having a string of 1/X followed by a flukey 7/7.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Well you are discounting consistency, which matters in a shooter. I would argue if the 36% were more consistent game to game it would mean he is a more reliable shooter than having a string of 1/X followed by a flukey 7/7.
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I don't disagree with the value of consistency, but from January 6th onwards, Niang has shot above 40% from 3 in roughly half of his games. This isn't a case of a shooter having one great game way above his average while the vast majority of them fall below his average.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Well you are discounting consistency, which matters in a shooter. I would argue if the 36% were more consistent game to game it would mean he is a more reliable shooter than having a string of 1/X followed by a flukey 7/7.
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With a bench guy I'd almost rather have them be hot or cold assuming the percentages are the same.
 
MT Steve said:
Eh, I think Log's point is that you don't want a guy going 7/7 one game and then 1/5 the next six, which is true. I just don't think that's an issue with Niang this season.
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Well it is arguable whether having your 9th guy shoot like that is a big deal or not, and probably not, but that's exactly how niang has been this year. Lots of 1-fers and then a few 7-7, 4-6 to round it out.
 
MT Steve said:
Eh, I think Log's point is that you don't want a guy going 7/7 one game and then 1/5 the next six, which is true. I just don't think that's an issue with Niang this season.
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I get that... that's a bit extreme. Basically Niang is getting three 3s a night. If he's a 33% shooter I'd rather have him go 3/3 in one game and 0/3 in the others than just 1/3 in all games. My theory is those guys don't lose you games but they can win you games.... it has no basis whatsoever... just a feeling in my balls.
 
I think at this point we don't really know whether Niang is any more or less prone to extremes than other players. It's just what we feel must be the case, or maybe eyeballing some data a little bit. To really be accurate, we'd need a good analysis. It would take a little time, but not all that long, if someone wants to do it.
 
We do have Niang previous years..so that shooting percentage WILL go up with time. I am just glad he has shown starter level quality defense with his stops on Lamelo Ball last night.
 
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