It's the Economy, Stupid!
- Thread starter PearlWatson
- Start date
It's still not clear which will get the computer twitch. We know where the mainstream media is, and we just have to factor that into the equation all the time, anyway. And we know who will get the bureaucracy vote, and some "minorities", but Mitt gets the military/industrial nod. Frankly, I believe BO has stunk up the Whitehouse so bad even his staff is going to vote him out, let alone the higher management. All BO has left is George Soros, Hollywood, the progressive ideologues, and people who are comfortable with a sort of unthinking media massage.
Mitt has the Bush Dynasty, the Rockefeller clique, Big Pharma, the Israel lobby, the military-industrial complex, people who still imagine we are a democracy with a few convenient human rights, people who have jobs, and people who think America still stands for something decent.
The Janadeles of the World have united, and Mitt will win.
Mitt has the Bush Dynasty, the Rockefeller clique, Big Pharma, the Israel lobby, the military-industrial complex, people who still imagine we are a democracy with a few convenient human rights, people who have jobs, and people who think America still stands for something decent.
The Janadeles of the World have united, and Mitt will win.
Can anyone verify that the model was predictive rather than fitting itself to previous results for the past eight elections?
The reason I ask is that the claimed track record would require the model to have been authored prior to 1980 if it was really predictive but the timeline on that is a little bizarre.
To wit: several sources are reporting that the model was developed by Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry.
Kenneth Bickers hadn't yet recieved his bachelor's degree in 1980, so if he developed the model prior to the 1980 election he would have been a sophomore or junior in college. https://polsci.colorado.edu/index.php?option=com_qcontacts&view=contact&catid=13&id=6
Michael Berry's age isn't as easy to deduce but he does not appear 50+ years old. https://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/...s/DepartmentDirectory/Pages/MichaelBerry.aspx
The reason I ask is that the claimed track record would require the model to have been authored prior to 1980 if it was really predictive but the timeline on that is a little bizarre.
To wit: several sources are reporting that the model was developed by Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry.
Kenneth Bickers hadn't yet recieved his bachelor's degree in 1980, so if he developed the model prior to the 1980 election he would have been a sophomore or junior in college. https://polsci.colorado.edu/index.php?option=com_qcontacts&view=contact&catid=13&id=6
Michael Berry's age isn't as easy to deduce but he does not appear 50+ years old. https://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/...s/DepartmentDirectory/Pages/MichaelBerry.aspx
Romney won't take Ohio. I'm worried about Florida though, and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania.
Found the publication: https://polisci.colorado.edu/images/stories/pdfs/berrybickers2012forecast.pdf
It's a new study that's "predicting backwards" to 1980 rather than having a 30+ year track record.
It's a new study that's "predicting backwards" to 1980 rather than having a 30+ year track record.
Only 30 years? Lichtman goes back to the Civil War, and has been predicting since the mid-80s.
Apparently they only have reliable data for their metrics going back to 1980, so they stopped there.
Well, the link I looked at was giving Obama this election with seven of the thirteen keys. They called two "uncertain".
I hear from some sources that Israel is going to try to resolve the Iran nuclear crisis with a strike potent enough to destroy the supposed nuclear bomb facilities, and that NetanYAHOO thinks this will be a plus for Mitt. Russia hates Obama, and China has no respect for him. Mitt they would have to take seriously. China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, with an ongoing military "community" being built on the Spratley Islands. The progressives are counting Obamacare as satisfying one of the keys, and denying the incompetence of Obama in several foreign policy snafoos to give their man the seven keys.
I could cal it by those keys 9 to 4 for the Republicans.
Come on, people. Obama has no business being our President. It's stink enough even Bill and Hillary are holding their noses.
I'm pretty sure One Brow is invoking the Keys because they're kind of inherently ridiculous too.
Well, subjective to a large degree. Why do you say ridiculous?
JimLes
Well-Known Member
I love when people try to pass off what could best be described as mildly interesting trivia as complex scientific predictions.
I have also run a complex predictor of NBA championship winners. According to my analysis, the past 5 titles, and 7 out of 9, have been won by teams with the letter E in their name. So we're basically screwed.
I have also run a complex predictor of NBA championship winners. According to my analysis, the past 5 titles, and 7 out of 9, have been won by teams with the letter E in their name. So we're basically screwed.
Precisely because it's so subjective as to be essentially unfalsifiable.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Do people really trust more tax cuts and deregulation to be the "Saviors" of our economy?
All kidding aside, Mitt keeps talking about how he knows how to create jobs. I'd love to believe him. The right keeps calling out Obama's poor economy... Yet, what got us here in the first place?
Has America really forgotten the Bush administration and its policies oh so quickly? What exactly is Mitt offering that Bush didn't offer/do?
Will lowering taxes more and having fewer regulations and killing programs like the EPA really bring us back to glory? If they haven't worked so well for 12 years now, why would they suddenly work with Romney? Does he have any pixie dust to throw on the economy?
hmmm...
Our economy now:
Along comes Mitt using the exact same (failed) policies as before. But this time he uses magic dust:
Our economy after St. Romney:
All kidding aside, Mitt keeps talking about how he knows how to create jobs. I'd love to believe him. The right keeps calling out Obama's poor economy... Yet, what got us here in the first place?
Has America really forgotten the Bush administration and its policies oh so quickly? What exactly is Mitt offering that Bush didn't offer/do?
Will lowering taxes more and having fewer regulations and killing programs like the EPA really bring us back to glory? If they haven't worked so well for 12 years now, why would they suddenly work with Romney? Does he have any pixie dust to throw on the economy?
hmmm...
Our economy now:
Along comes Mitt using the exact same (failed) policies as before. But this time he uses magic dust:
Our economy after St. Romney: