Its Time to Tank

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you told me we are shutting down Lauri in 5 games I keep my chances but if we play it somewhat straight we are gonna end up 9th or 10th imo.

 

[The Midnight]

If the casino game was gambling the 10th pick for the 1st pick and losing means you just keep the 10th pick I would be there 24/7

Yeah but u had 4th in the hand though that was the question … so u r dropping from 4th to 10th.

 

[MT Steve]

Okay you buy a stock option for 10k and have an opportunity to sell it for 100K… it has a 10% chance to go to 1M and a 90% chance to go to 10k or slightly less… when the 90% shot happens and you walk away with 10k will you feel the 90k loss?

I have a friend who literally had this happen… he will bring it up constantly… it was 15 years ago. He very much thinks he lost something.

This isn't a great analogy.

If the 4th pick doesn't make us a title contender, then yeah I'd easily take the 10% shot at Victor. If we lose and get the 10th pick, who cares, we weren't going to be title contenders with the 4th anyways.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This isn't a great analogy.

If the 4th pick doesn't make a title contender, then yeah I'd easily take the 10% shot at Victor. If we lose and get the 10th pick, who cares, we weren't going to be title contenders with the 4th anyways.

It’s a perfect analogy lol. If you make a million it might represent a life changing amount of money or a significant lifestyle change… making 100k may not mean you change your lifestyle but might provide a nice sense of security and you will sleep better at night… go on a nice vacation or something… but your day to day may not change a ton… you will need to stack a few more of those wins.

 

[MT Steve]

It’s a perfect analogy lol. If you make a million it might represent a life changing amount of money or a significant lifestyle change… making 100k may not mean you change your lifestyle but might provide a nice sense of security and you will sleep better at night… go on a nice vacation or something… but your day to day may not change a ton… you will need to stack a few more of those wins.

The difference between $100k and $10k is far greater than the difference between having a 2nd round exit as your ceiling instead of a 1st round exit.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

These money analogies just don’t do it for me. We’re talking about the fate of a basketball team I root for, not my retirement fund. I want a chance at Wemby, and I’m not too fussed about missing out on, at most, six spots in the draft in order to take that chance.

I’m not mocking anyone. Just surprised everyone would be so eager to chuck away the chance at getting to the top guys in the draft in order to have first dibs at the large group of hard to separate players that comes next. We’ve been talking about Wemby for years, no one even knows who they want at four. And yet everyone is fine giving up our one chance at this dude.

 

[cmrd]

lots of words spent on a hypothetical with absolutely zero relevance to reality or how front offices think about ****.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The difference between $100k and $10k is far greater than the difference between having a 2nd round exit as your ceiling instead of a 1st round exit.

What? You're making assumptions that are wild. This one pick does not determine the future ceiling of the team by itself... even if we land Wemby.

 

[MT Steve]

What? You're making assumptions that are wild. This one pick does not determine the future ceiling of the team by itself... even if we land Wemby.

Is it really that wild to assume drafting a once-in-a-generation player will give us an excellent chance to become title contenders, whereas with the 4th pick it will not?

 

[latin jazz]

None of those 3 are obvious picks.

Wemby is a MASSIVE injury risk, Scoot is undersized and Miller apparently helped murder someone.

I think it's time to change your name to Tremendous Downside

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Is it really that wild to assume drafting a once-in-a-generation player will give us an excellent chance to become title contenders, whereas with the 4th pick it will not?

It is really wild to assume that prospect is a once-in-a-generation player and that the guy drafted fourth can't provide an excellent chance to become a title contender... yes.

 

[MT Steve]

It is really wild to assume that prospect is a once-in-a-generation player and that the guy drafted fourth can't provide an excellent chance to become a title contender... yes.

You know this debate you're having with everyone could've gone a whole lot smoother if you led with the fact that you disagree with basically all of the scouts and experts.

 

[Jingled]

I think it's time to change your name to Tremendous Downside

He's definitely a glass half empty kind of guy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

He's definitely a glass half empty kind of guy.

He's a "the glass was full of spoiled milk and I spilled that **** all over the carpet" kind of guy.

 

[fishonjazz]

These money analogies just don’t do it for me. We’re talking about the fate of a basketball team I root for, not my retirement fund. I want a chance at Wemby, and I’m not too fussed about missing out on, at most, six spots in the draft in order to take that chance.

I’m not mocking anyone. Just surprised everyone would be so eager to chuck away the chance at getting to the top guys in the draft in order to have first dibs at the large group of hard to separate players that comes next. We’ve been talking about Wemby for years, no one even knows who they want at four. And yet everyone is fine giving up our one chance at this dude.

See for me we already threw away our shot at wemby when we played so good. The wemby ship has already sailed.
I don't see him as an option. Odds are too poor.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

See for me we already threw away our shot at wemby when we played so good. The wemby ship has already sailed.
I don't see him as an option. Odds are too poor.

If you could guarantee me ninth or better odds in this scenario I make take the chance, but I have basically kinda accepted we won't hit the sweet spot and are just as likely to end 11th. We need to shut Lauri/Walker down more or earlier in the season. 3% chance at Wemby is really meh. 10% chance at top 3 is not great... #4 is more than "just a few spots" lol. There are times when multiple firsts won't move you up 2 spots. Those spots are valuable.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

See for me we already threw away our shot at wemby when we played so good. The wemby ship has already sailed.
I don't see him as an option. Odds are too poor.

Odds aren’t great but they are there. More unlikely things happens every single day. It’s a dice roll.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

These money analogies just don’t do it for me. We’re talking about the fate of a basketball team I root for, not my retirement fund. I want a chance at Wemby, and I’m not too fussed about missing out on, at most, six spots in the draft in order to take that chance.

I’m not mocking anyone. Just surprised everyone would be so eager to chuck away the chance at getting to the top guys in the draft in order to have first dibs at the large group of hard to separate players that comes next. We’ve been talking about Wemby for years, no one even knows who they want at four. And yet everyone is fine giving up our one chance at this dude.

10000000% this

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You know this debate you're having with everyone could've gone a whole lot smoother if you led with the fact that you disagree with basically all of the scouts and experts.

Sir… I don’t disagree with all the scouts and experts.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

GMs are pretty risk averse… I mean DA and JZ could have cashed out on a bunch of our vets earlier for a smaller price and tripled our shot at Vic… you think he turns down the fourth pick for a 3% shot at Vic?