Jackpotting Around Podcast: Episode 8 - To Convey Or Not To Convey and Let’s Start A Discussion About Collin Sexton

[SoberasHotRod]

I think the chance we wish we had a pick in 2026 to swap is slim to none vs getting a top-10 pick this year. How good of a pick swap would it have to be to be worth giving up a top-10 pick and what are the odds of that happening as well? Very low.

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

 

[Elizah Huge]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

Yeah, after I gave it a listen earlier today I think I was a little harsh on the odds of it happening.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think I enjoy the conversation on here after the Pod as much as I enjoy listening. So thanks for posting on here and being willing to discuss.

I think the scenario where we don't have a 2026 pick, but wish we did for a swap is much higher than Elizah seems to think, but still think it's best to get a top 10 pick this year. At this point we have a good idea on who will be available in the 8-10 range and I personally like a lot of those guys. I think it's possible the FO has more information including next year's class and might disagrees though.

And that is kind of why I said "this is a valid reason". This is fair but I do think the chances a top 10 pick this year far exceeds the value of what that swap would be are fairly low but not zero. Like there is a potential for a catastrophe there but its like a 5% or less type of deal. But yeah we buy insurance to protect ourselves against low probability things like this so its a valid fear.

I also think keeping the pick is more advantageous to the "straddle the fence" strategy we have. If we keep the pick and things go south this summer or we get bit by the injury bug I think you can tank it and it makes the path just a little more profitable. If you want to use the pick to make you better now in a trade.... then send a worse pick in 2025 it works with that route. If the FO really loves next year's draft I actually think a full tank is a better route than conveying the pick this year to hope you get the 12-15th or something pick next year.

 

[infection]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

Yeah no idea on the math but I'd guess its like a 5% chance all of that happens and the Wolves or Cavs are in the bottom 10 and we are not... then it would really hit the fan if they landed the #1 pick which is like a 4-5% chance on its own.

I think the most likely scenario is we keep the pick and next year are firmly in the play in mix and give the 12th-15th pick next year to the Thunder.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

But if that happens, assuming the second rounder is their own pick it will be an early second rounder, which according to HH is a late first.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

Right but lets say they tank their faces off to the worst record. 48% chance we get the 5th pick or a pick in the 30s. I would take that over a guarantee we get the 18th pick or something like that. I know the Lakers could also rig it so they are 14th and win the lotto... I still think we trust the math (not like Quin who didn't get the math right).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But if that happens, assuming the second rounder is their own pick it will be an early second rounder, which according to HH is a late first.

I feel seen.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Yeah no idea on the math but I'd guess its like a 5% chance all of that happens and the Wolves or Cavs are in the bottom 10 and we are not... then it would really hit the fan if they landed the #1 pick which is like a 4-5% chance on its own.

I think the most likely scenario is we keep the pick and next year are firmly in the play in mix and give the 12th-15th pick next year to the Thunder.

5% sounds about right. As a Jazz fan that's enough to keep me up at night. What were our odds of playing Houston that one year and then it ended up happening?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Definitive discussion is sarcasm my friend. If something on the pod feels like serious talk... its likely tongue in cheek. We are also trying to challenge some of the assumed messaging that comes out. Some of that stuff is just weird... sorry. Like the whole "Ochai needs to start next year" last season and summer.

Look next pod we will do the "THT deserves more love" pod... if you have 45 seconds give it a listen.

I guess I just hate sarcasm in basketball pods. The "is that good" *snickering* as you read something that is obviously good just grates to me to no end, especially when it's repeated constantly. Sam Vecenie loves that, so I can hear the clear Vecenie influence there.

And again, idk, the tone just doesnt suit me if that is the direction it's going. Is it going to be a pod where in depth Jazz related topics are discussed or just a fan service pod where you react to/talk to the average Jazz twitter opinions? I guess you're going for just a general podcast that can touch on whatever and however?

 

[infection]

Right but lets say they tank their faces off to the worst record. 48% chance we get the 5th pick or a pick in the 30s. I would take that over a guarantee we get the 18th pick or something like that. I know the Lakers could also rig it so they are 14th and win the lotto... I still think we trust the math (not like Quin who didn't get the math right).

If they're out of the playoffs, just go ahead and pencil in that pick as being "a new late first." There's no way that pick conveys to us.

I don't know, it feels like like that pick is like playing black jack and we're asking to be hit at 18. Yeah, it will be awesome if we hit 21 or get real close. But, you know...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You’ve been telling me he was as good as gone the last two seasons and yet he’s still here.

We will see.

Do you think Sexton is going to improve on what he is doing currently as far as offensive production goes or is this the peak? I guess I mean that more in terms of efficiency/advanced stats because obviously he can put up better counting stats with more volume.

Sexton is trending more towards near max money than he is average starter money and if he improves on what he has done this year, that only becomes more of a reality. You and HH can sit here all you want and act like it's just this obvious thing to keep both because of how well Sexton has played, but he has actually played so well that he has made it harder to keep him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I guess I just hate sarcasm in basketball pods. The "is that good" *snickering* as you read something that is obviously good just grates to me to no end, especially when it's repeated constantly. Sam Vecenie loves that, so I can hear the clear Vecenie influence there.

And again, idk, the tone just doesnt suit me if that is the direction it's going. Is it going to be a pod where in depth Jazz related topics are discussed or just a fan service pod where you react to/talk to the average Jazz twitter opinions? I guess you're going for just a general podcast that can touch on whatever and however?

yeah I mean its hard to be all things to all people. Its not a Vecenie thing... I'm just sarcastic. We are jackpotting around. Sometimes we might argue... sometimes we might geek out about the guys we like. What we have found is that people here are more detailed and educated and we make assumptions people understand things that the masses don't. We don't know what it will be but it will be us. If you feel you want to go elsewhere I understand. If you want to hear a certain type of pod that isn't out there... then start it.

I would say if there is a model in my mind it would be Rights to Ricky Sanchez. Those guys are way more talented in the media than us, but I want a place where we can complain about what's going on or just call it like we see it. Lots of good media types are out there but some can't always be as raw as I'm sure they'd like to be. When stuff happens I want a place fans or I can go vent and we don't really care what management or experts say cuz we think we are right. If people are saying "that's a convo I'd like to be part of" I think we are doing it right.

I appreciate your feedback. If I am grating on you then you do you. We can't be all things to all people.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, regarding the Sexton PNR stuff.

NBA.com PNR ballhandler stats just account for individual scoring efficiency when running a play the ends in a PNR.

While scoring yourself is an important of PNR play, it isnt the only part. Using that to say "Look Sexton is actually great at the PNR" is dishonest to me. He's gotten good at an aspect of it, but he isnt a PNR PG or someone who operates as a playmaker out of the PNR (though he has gotten better and does that stuff occasionally, especially with John Collins).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If they're out of the playoffs, just go ahead and pencil in that pick as being "a new late first." There's no way that pick conveys to us.

I don't know, it feels like like that pick is like playing black jack and we're asking to be hit at 18. Yeah, it will be awesome if we hit 21 or get real close. But, you know...

I'm all for conspiracy theories... they are fun. In the end I would trust things are on the up and up. If we are that skeptical then we may want to consider not being a fan of the team as there are easier ways to screw us that will surely happen.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We will see.

Do you think Sexton is going to improve on what he is doing currently as far as offensive production goes or is this the peak? I guess I mean that more in terms of efficiency/advanced stats because obviously he can put up better counting stats with more volume.

Sexton is trending more towards near max money than he is average starter money and if he improves on what he has done this year, that only becomes more of a reality. You and HH can sit here all you want and act like it's just this obvious thing to keep both because of how well Sexton has played, but he has actually played so well that he has made it harder to keep him.

It would be hard for him to improve his efficiency. Like for a guard he is tippy top tier. it would have to be volume.

And if he is trending towards max money and playing "too well"... why wouldn't we keep him over Keyonte if that was the discussion. Like Key probably has a higher ceiling I guess. He has shown some passing flashes. He's longer so could/should be a better defender? Like why make that decision before you have to? I'm hopeful on Keyonte but not sure we should assume he will definitely be better than Sexton or that the two are completely incompatible.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It would be hard for him to improve his efficiency. Like for a guard he is tippy top tier. it would have to be volume.

And if he is trending towards max money and playing "too well"... why wouldn't we keep him over Keyonte if that was the discussion. Like Key probably has a higher ceiling I guess. He has shown some passing flashes. He's longer so could/should be a better defender? Like why make that decision before you have to? I'm hopeful on Keyonte but not sure we should assume he will definitely be better than Sexton or that the two are completely incompatible.

1. Yes, they are completely incompatible. I mean cmon dude. Two small backcourt players who are both average defenders (at best, being very generous to both that they improve more on that end). Dont overthink it. This **** has ultimately failed for more talented pairings who were less flawed and less defensively challenged.

2. Yeah, that's the discussion that I think is interesting. Is building with Sexton as PG a better outcome than Keyonte.

3. Yes, you kind of do need to make that decision because both players need PG reps to develop as a PG. I get you can do a "PG by committee" type thing, but if you are committing to Sexton being your other star, you want him to have the ball in his hands more, not less, and see if him having more PG reps is a good thing before you commit that money.

4. The Jazz probably wont do it because Hardy likes Keyonte more and going the Sexton route forces you into harder decisions that have more immediate consequences and FO's are cowards who will take the safer route if presented with choices that arent clearly better or worse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

1. Yes, they are completely incompatible. I mean cmon dude. Two small backcourt players who are both average defenders (at best, being very generous to both that they improve more on that end). Dont overthink it. This **** has ultimately failed for more talented pairings who were less flawed and less defensively challenged.

Yeah I mean I agree somewhat but it also depends on where you are and where you are going. It will work well enough until other better obvious options reveal themselves.

2. Yeah, that's the discussion that I think is interesting. Is building with Sexton as PG a better outcome than Keyonte.

Right but we don't need to be in a hurry there.

3. Yes, you kind of do need to make that decision because both players need PG reps to develop as a PG. I get you can do a "PG by committee" type thing, but if you are committing to Sexton being your other star, you want him to have the ball in his hands more, not less, and see if him having more PG reps is a good thing before you commit that money.

Both guys are developing now. I don't see us needing to make a decision yet. Next year is critical for both guys. Get an amazing offer for one in the meantime then by all means make a decision.

4. The Jazz probably wont do it because Hardy likes Keyonte more and going the Sexton route forces you into harder decisions that have more immediate consequences and FO's are cowards who will take the safer route if presented with choices that arent clearly better or worse.

We don't know... that's why we will be patient. Patience and indecision are also very much a cowardly GM go to move.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Sexton is playing so good we can't keep him argument reminds me of the Core 4 "we can't pay all these guys" argument. If the guys are both so good that it creates a champagne problem that is not a bad thing.

When Sexton and Key share the floor we are a net -3.2 per 100, which is Key's 4th highest pairing. Key is mostly negative... not surprising he's a rookie. Its one of Sexton's lower pairings but he is pretty smooth across the board. Its fine for now and you can manage minutes if it becomes a problem.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Sexton is playing so good we can't keep him argument reminds me of the Core 4 "we can't pay all these guys" argument. If the guys are both so good that it creates a champagne problem that is not a bad thing.

When Sexton and Key share the floor we are a net -3.2 per 100, which is Key's 4th highest pairing. Key is mostly negative... not surprising he's a rookie. Its one of Sexton's lower pairings but he is pretty smooth across the board. Its fine for now and you can manage minutes if it becomes a problem.

Well take your own analogy and learn lessons from it.

Dont hold onto individual pieces too long hoping it will all eventually make sense or work. Pick the best ones out and sell high on the ones who dont fit.