The FIXED version of the scenario chart has been published by the NBA: https://jazzfanz.com/threads/playoff-scenarios-entering-tuesday.88329/
Jazz 2017/18 Playoff Bus! All Aboard!
- Thread starter Stoked
- Start date
Spinoza
Well-Known Member
Based on my reading of the rules, if the Jazz lose to the Warriors but beat Portland they would be the 3 seed and OKC would be the 6 seed. Why? Because Utah would have the tiebreaker among the 4 tied teams, either Utah/SA/Por/OKC or Utah/NO/Por/OKC. Portland would be the division winner because the division winner is determined before all other tiebreakers are applied, but that only guarantees them one of the top 4 seeds, not the 3rd seed specifically.
Utah went 7-5 against SA/Por/OKC
Utah went 7-5 against NO/Por/OKC
Portland went 5-6 against SA/UT/OKC
Portland went 7-5 against NO/UT/OKC
OKC went 5-7 against SA/UT/Por
OKC went 4-7 against NO/UT/Por
New Orleans went 5-6 against Por/UT/OKC
San Antonio went 5-6 against Por/UT/OKC
If New Orleans beats SA, then Utah and Portland both went 7-5 against the tied teams, but so a partial tie break puts them as the top two. And since Utah beat Por 3-1 in the season series, Utah gets the 3rd seed. If SA beats New Orleans, then Utah gets the full tiebreaker by having a better record among those four. OKC gets the 6th seed regardless of who wins NO/SA on Wednesday, so either way Utah plays OKC as the 3rd seed if they beat Portland. However, Utah will not have home court advantage because home court advantage is determined solely by two-team tie breaker rules, not by seeding.
All of this is coming from http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/
EDIT: okay, great. This is what would have happened if that link was up to date. However, here are the rules as of 2017, which explain why my post above is wrong and doesn't agree with what the NBA just released: https://ak-static-int.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/NBA_Tiebreaker_Procedures.pdf
"Division leader wins tie" was inserted at the top of the multi-team tie breaker procedure.
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Spinoza
Well-Known Member
I believe they're misinterpreting their own rules. They should not be giving Portland the 3 seed if Utah loses to the Warriors but beats the Blazers on Wednesday.
EDIT: Nevermind, I was looking at outdated rules.
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
That is not correct. Look at the chart that Jason linked to in the post after yours. If Utah loses to GS there are several scenarios where Utah beats Portland, but Portland gets the 3 seed.
So there are 32 scenarios for us. If we were to pretend that the outcomes were pure chance, then these would be the percentage chance at each scenario:
3rd: 37.5% (12/32)
4th: 12.5% (4/32)
5th: 25% (8/32)
6th: 15.625% (5/32)
7th: 9.375% (3/32)
Its dumb that they have division winner as the tiebreaker, when the division means absolutely nothing. Any 4 way tie the Jazz would win, but since they don't count the NO/SA in division, then Portland wins, and they are out of the scenario, so Jazz won't even get the 4 seed in this scenario. Complete Bull ****. If you are going to have divisions, make them worth something other than a stupid worthless tiebreaker.
Would much rather have HC advantage and face GS in the second round though. I think the Jazz can win more games against GS than Houston.
TheStormofWar
Well-Known Member
The Blunder don't worry me. Rather face GSW than the Rockets in the 2nd round.
No, there are lots of scenarios where the Jazz lose both but get the #6 seed. Look at the link Jason posted.
But personally I'd much rather have home court in any scenario, then get the #7 against Golden State. So I'm hoping for wins.
Similarly, if we pretend it's random chance, then these are the percentage chances for the various matchups (rounding to one decimal place):
Utah as 3 seed
Utah - Den 15.6% (5/32)
Utah - Min 6.3% (2/32)
Utah - OKC 9.4% (3/32)
Utah - SAS 6.3% (2/32)
Utah as 4 seed
Utah - NO 6.3% (2/32)
Utah - SAS 6.3% (2/32)
Utah as 5 seed
Utah - OKC 25% (8/32)
Utah as 6 seed
Utah - Por 15.6% (5/32)
Utah as 7 seed
Utah - GSW 9.4% (3/32)
OKC would be most likely opponent with 34.4% (11/32).
Then Por and Den both at 15.6% (5/32)
Then SAS at 12.5% (4/32)
Then GSW at 9.4% (3/32)
Then Min and NO both at 6.3% (2/32)
Crazy, crazy playoff race.
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
Incorrect. What you are saying is true only if OKC beats Memphis.
If someone wants to find or give probabilities for each game that are more accurate than just 50-50, I can add that into my calculations really easily. Would make better/more interesting numbers than what I've presented here.
FarrakhanJazzFan
Active Member
Memphis is just not going to beat OKC, it's simply not worth considering.
There is a single plausible scenario where the Jazz end up #7 -- lose to GS and Portland, and Minnesota and San Antonio both win. Every other scenario where the Jazz lose twice has them playing Portland. If we win tonight, we have at least the fifth seed and we're playing OKC no matter what.
My personal preference is home court as the #3, obviously. Getting a Game 7 at home is an enormous advantage. And my favorite plausible scenario is the Jazz win out along with Minnesota and San Antonio. I don't feel Denver stands a chance against GSW, but a healthy Minnesota team does.
There is a single plausible scenario where the Jazz end up #7 -- lose to GS and Portland, and Minnesota and San Antonio both win. Every other scenario where the Jazz lose twice has them playing Portland. If we win tonight, we have at least the fifth seed and we're playing OKC no matter what.
My personal preference is home court as the #3, obviously. Getting a Game 7 at home is an enormous advantage. And my favorite plausible scenario is the Jazz win out along with Minnesota and San Antonio. I don't feel Denver stands a chance against GSW, but a healthy Minnesota team does.
So everyone saying we’re almost locked with OKC but if we win out it looks pretty good not facing them, no?
Spinoza
Well-Known Member
Yea, that's the assumption I've been making.
