Jazz Playoff Watch

[northeast]

nerd, you make dumb statements, then set up straw men, and bring in cherry picked stats to knock down the straw men, arguing something completely different than your original dumb statements, which is what i was talking about. .

no one said that a 12 pick guarantees an allstar.

but a higher pick in a stronger draft is better than a lower pick in a weaker draft, and gives the Jazz a better chance at being a contender.

you are the one assigning no value to getting a good draft pick, as opposed to no draft pick

you are the one saying that it doesn't matter if the draft is a strong draft.

those are the points i was addressing.

 

[gomretat]

nerd, you make dumb statements, then set up straw men, and bring in cherry picked stats to knock down the straw men, arguing something completely different than your original dumb statements, which is what i was talking about. .

I find Nerd's analysis spot on. And why anyone thinks that getting a pick is better than getting into the playoffs is beyond me. Playoffs or bust. You have to build culture of winning and you have to learn how to play in the post season - even if you get swept.

 

[Gameface]

Every year only 3-4 teams should actually try to win. All other teams would be stupid to put forth any effort. It's just logical.

 

[fishonjazz]

Every year only 3-4 teams should actually try to win. All other teams would be stupid to put forth any effort. It's just logical.

Wrong. Because usually when you make the playoffs you still get a draft pick.... so you can gain that playoff experience without losing a draft pick.

This year the jazz dont get thier pick if they make the playoffs. That is usually not the case.

No one would want the jazz to miss the playoffs if we still got our draft pick like in a normal year.

 

[northeast]

but its wrong to argue that a higher pick in a stronger draft this year is no more likely to help the team
compared to a lower pick in a weaker draft in a future year.

 

[fishonjazz]

Soo, unless it is sure fire ring, just lose and get another pick? Makes sense to me.
Nerd is dead on with this one. He even uses facts and stats to back it up, unlike emotional me.

He did use fact and stats to show that a late lottery pick usually isnt very valuable... and yes he did a good job on that arguement.

However i have yet to see that stat that shows how making the playoffs as an 8 seed and getting swept while not being competitive and losing your draft pick helps you get better.

That is what alot of us are worried would happen, and i dont think there is a stat or any facts you can show that proves you become a contender by getting killed in the 1st round of the playoffs and giving away your draft pick.

 

[BENTLEY]

basically it's either playoffs
or Jazz add one of these guys: Marshall, Lillard, or Rivers.

 

[//r00t 4 Jazz]

He did use fact and stats to show that a late lottery pick usually isnt very valuable... and yes he did a good job on that arguement.

However i have yet to see that stat that shows how making the playoffs as an 8 seed and getting swept while not being competitive and losing your draft pick helps you get better.

That is what alot of us are worried would happen, and i dont think there is a stat or any facts you can show that proves you become a contender by getting killed in the 1st round of the playoffs and giving away your draft pick.

The closest thing to an example is almost every team has to go through the growing pains of getting knocked out of the playoffs early before advancing further into the playoffs.
Also I know this draft class keeps getting touted as the best ever (lets assume that is true despite the radio interview with Fran Fraschilla saying he doesn't think it is unless you get the #1 pick) and obviously we get a pick next year but who's to say what next years class will be like, the previous 2yrs drafts are supposedly weak but we seem to have made out pretty good.

And honestly in strong draft classes what makes it strong is that the top 1-3 picks after that it is depth and in classes if those superstar future HoF players aren't there it can classified or labeled in many ways such a as a deep draft. But again those are all speculation unless there is a LBJ, Duncan, Durant (who was still picke 2nd) type players it can take 2-4 years to really tell how good a draft class is.

 

[Brown Notes]

He did use fact and stats to show that a late lottery pick usually isnt very valuable... and yes he did a good job on that arguement.

However i have yet to see that stat that shows how making the playoffs as an 8 seed and getting swept while not being competitive and losing your draft pick helps you get better.

That is what alot of us are worried would happen, and i dont think there is a stat or any facts you can show that proves you become a contender by getting killed in the 1st round of the playoffs and giving away your draft pick.

This is the assumption I have a problem with.

It just isn't a given that the Jazz will get swept or the series won't provide a benefit for the players and coaches. Derrick is being leaned on more every day. Gordon has been tremendous and all the guys very clearly want to be in. They are all playing their tails off and the 6 spot is still achievable.

Also all is not lost if Utah gets no 1sts this year. It just resets. Those picks probably won't be as high but KOC will also be in a better position to make decisions with the assets at hand. The jury is still out on Kanter and Burks. If all 4 of these young players are hits that would be very fortunate indeed. I'm completely stoked to see Favors and Gordon playing so well already.

Finally playoff performances increase the value of our veterans. If Al, for instance, has a couple great games in a playoff series he is going to get serious attention around the league. That might make up whatever value we lose in delaying our picks a year. Same goes for Harris who is peaking at a great time.

In any case this is a fun ride and I'm having a blast rooting for the guys.

 

[//r00t 4 Jazz]

Good point Brown I hadn't thought about the coaching staff getting experience. I'd have to look but I'm sure all if not most has had experience as a player and on other coaching staffs but as presently constituted it would be a good learning experience for them as well.

 

[theNBAnerd]

my prediction by now is DENVER PHONIX and UTAH will be 34-32 who will in the playoffs THEN ?????

does anyone know for sure?

first TB would be the head-to-head record of all three. there are still two games left among those three teams (den @ phx 4/21, phx @ uta 4/24) but as of right now the order for the tiebreaker would be:

phx 2-2
utah 2-3
denver 2-3

so phoenix would get in if that scenario happened. but i doubt it goes down like that. phoenix has the most brutal schedule of anyone -- 7 of their 8 remaining games are against .500+ teams, with a combined winning percentage of .606. denver is second-toughest, also with 7 of their 8 against winning teams and a combined WP of .573. utah has a relatively cushy .493 remaining, with only 4 against winning teams and only 3 road games remaining (two of those against lottery teams).

my best guess: houston and dallas will wind up with either 36 or 37 wins each (finishing 4-4 or 5-3), denver and utah will each end up with either 35 or 36, and i honestly can't see phoenix getting more than 33 or 34 wins.

 

[theNBAnerd]

great post by brown. there's value in making the playoffs that we just don't think about. all that value, to me, is more important than the difference in value between this year's jazz pick and next year's jazz pick.

 

[fishonjazz]

great post by brown. there's value in making the playoffs that we just don't think about. all that value, to me, is more important than the difference in value between this year's jazz pick and next year's jazz pick.

This "value in making the playoffs" is all potential value and possible value.... not guaranteed...... just like the pick could be worthless or it could get us a key component to our future.

You cant just say that the pick is worthless by providing past pick info, and say that making the playoffs is valuable.

neither one are a sure thing.

 

[mrob]

The closest thing to an example is almost every team has to go through the growing pains of getting knocked out of the playoffs early before advancing further into the playoffs.

This.

Teams don't go from non-playoff teams to championship contenders overnight (with the possible exception of signing 3 superstars like the Miami Heat). If the young players we have now are as good as we all seem to think they will be, the timer has already started. We can't afford to wait around for another player from the draft that may or may not be a game changer. Teams that chase the draft in this way become perennial losers.

People seem to think that if we just lose enough games we can somehow become the next OKC. There are many more bad examples than there are good examples. OKC/Seattle is a horrible example. They were a terrible team with an owner that wanted to sell to someone who wanted to relocate the franchise. They had zero interest in building a good team and no incentive to win. They were so bad that they got excellent picks several years in a row. On top of that, they were fortunate enough to get fantastic players with those picks. If one or two of those picks had been busts (which is very plausible), we wouldn't be having the same discussion.

The OKC model is not a model at all. At least, it's not a model that NBA teams running as a business can ever afford to employ intentionally.

The Utah Jazz on the other hand have a good model. They by and large pick very well in the draft regardless of their place in the draft. They evaluate talent well. They do a pretty good job of developing that talent (although this point is the one most likely to come up for debate). They usually make good trades. And, they rarely if ever hamstring the franchise with bad business decisions.

Still, I find it amazing that we actually have a discussion about whether or not it's a good thing that the Jazz go to the playoffs. No single player that we will be in position to get will outweigh the playoff experience that our young guys will get if they land the 7 or 8 spot. The vacancy left by not drafting such-and-such player can and will be filled in other ways such as trades, free agency, or simply drafting another player lower in the draft. The holes left in our lineup are not as gaping as some would like to believe and I think we are one or two moves from not only making the playoffs but progressing.

 

[fishonjazz]

Brown notes is right that us getting swept and not being competitive is not a given and i believe that if the jazz ARE competitive in the playoffs then alot of us that were wanting to miss the playoffs will change our tune and eat crow. Im all for playoffs if the jazz are competitive..... but watching the spurs and thunder play and watching us play i see a big gap.

Apparently some fans (brown notes) think we are just sooo close to competing with the best in the west.
I dont think we are close to the best in the west but would LOVE to be wrong about that

 

[fishonjazz]

actually after reading brown notes post again i realize that i was putting words into his mouth.... he never said that he thinks we can compete with the best in west, just that it is not a given that we wont compete with them.... very true, and i apologize for putting words in his mouth.

Also good point about the coaches getting experience, and about increasing trade value of vets if they play well.

Good post overall really. disregard my above post.

 

[northeast]

I see some good points on both sides, but I just think it is wrong to cherry pick data to imply that getting a lottery pick in an exceptionally strong draft is worthless.

 

[NCJazz]

I see some good points on both sides, but I just think it is wrong to cherry pick data to imply that getting a lottery pick in an exceptionally strong draft is worthless.

Should someone check to see all the great players who were selected 12th or later. Probably a pretty impressive list. As we know there are guys taken in the second round who become great players.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I guess the Jazz should just tank until they don't have to give up that draft pick, 'cause that draft pick will always help us compete, right?

It is VERY unlikely that a 13-14 will make the Jazz contenders next year (is Alec Burks making the Jazz contenders this year?), so the the Jazz will be likely be in the same exact position next year with or without having their pick this upcoming draft. Why not just get rid of that debit so that the Jazz can be much more flexible with trades and such when their pick isn't owed. Jazz haven't been able to trade a first round pick the last two years because they might owe their pick to Minnesota.

 

[northeast]

I think that getting this draft pick this year will have a better chance of making the Jazz a contender within a year or two then trading a first round pick in a future year.