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Jazz Playoff Watch

fishonjazz said:
Brown notes is right that us getting swept and not being competitive is not a given and i believe that if the jazz ARE competitive in the playoffs then alot of us that were wanting to miss the playoffs will change our tune and eat crow. Im all for playoffs if the jazz are competitive..... but watching the spurs and thunder play and watching us play i see a big gap.

Apparently some fans (brown notes) think we are just sooo close to competing with the best in the west.
I dont think we are close to the best in the west but would LOVE to be wrong about that
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My bigger worry about making the playoffs is that management will think we are getting close and keep this whole team together. Kinda like the year when they made WCF finals (06?). They thought they were right there, but it was mainly due to getting GS in the second round. Yet it seems they would not recognize that so we went several more years with booz-ak-okur and diminishing returns.

I feel that this team as currently put together will never get there. They have too many bigs and not enough productive wings. They need to move Big Al and get a wing who can shoot the 3 ball, give more minutes to favors and kanter. But will they do that if they make it to PO?
 
gomretat said:
I find Nerd's analysis spot on. And why anyone thinks that getting a pick is better than getting into the playoffs is beyond me. Playoffs or bust. You have to build culture of winning and you have to learn how to play in the post season - even if you get swept.
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This post you are responding to is a perfect reason why northeast is on my ignore list. Carry on nerd. I've been impressed with your insight and will give you rep for it right now. (BTW, I wasn't convinced by your brother's assertion that the players probably don't know the pick situation for their own teams. I think it's very likely that they do.)
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
This post you are responding to is a perfect reason why northeast is on my ignore list. Carry on nerd. I've been impressed with your insight and will give you rep for it right now. (BTW, I wasn't convinced by your brother's assertion that the players probably don't know the pick situation for their own teams. I think it's very likely that they do.)
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they probably know (at least vaguely) the protection situation... i think my brother's larger point is that they probably don't care. the NBA is competitive, and if you're a golden state warrior in the last year or two of your contract, then adding a #7 pick probably doesn't do much for you other than hurt your chances of re-signing. the only way you would actually be motivated to help your team get a high pick is if you knew you were a part of your team's future, at least in the medium term.

in golden state's case, i think that means four guys: david lee (signed through '16), andrew bogut (through '14, but they'll obviously try to keep him), steph curry (signed through '14, then a likely extension will kick in), and klay thompson (through '15 and then an extension). of those four, two are injured and have no impact on how the team plays down the stretch of close games like the last two nights. and out of lee and thompson, i haven't seen anything that indicates that they want to lose.

as for the rest of their roster, a high draft pick probably hurts them more than helps them -- won't get resigned, will lose minutes/shots in a contract year, etc.
 
tonight's playoff watch guide:

dallas @ portland
denver @ lakers
phoenix @ houston
jazz @ new orleans

with phoenix's upcoming schedule, i'd feel a lot better if they won than if houston did. if that happens and dallas finds a way to lose to portland (unlikely), then a denver loss and a jazz win send us to bed with this mess in the west:

6. dallas 33-27
7. houston 32-27 (1/2 GB) - by virtue of conference record tiebreaker over denver
8. denver 32-27 (1/2 GB)
-------
9. utah 32-28 (1 GB)
10. phoenix 31-28 (1 1/2 GB)

more likely, dallas and houston win, which gives us the same order, but 2 1/2 games separating the five teams as opposed to 1 1/2.
 
theNBAnerd said:
tonight's playoff watch guide:

dallas @ portland
denver @ lakers
phoenix @ houston
jazz @ new orleans

with phoenix's upcoming schedule, i'd feel a lot better if they won than if houston did. if that happens and dallas finds a way to lose to portland (unlikely), then a denver loss and a jazz win send us to bed with this mess in the west:

6. dallas 33-27
7. houston 32-27 (1/2 GB) - by virtue of conference record tiebreaker over denver
8. denver 32-27 (1/2 GB)
-------
9. utah 32-28 (1 GB)
10. phoenix 31-28 (1 1/2 GB)

more likely, dallas and houston win, which gives us the same order, but 2 1/2 games separating the five teams as opposed to 1 1/2.
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Utah's chances at the playoffs may come down to Howard's back as crazy as it is now.
 
theNBAnerd said:
they probably know (at least vaguely) the protection situation... i think my brother's larger point is that they probably don't care. the NBA is competitive, and if you're a golden state warrior in the last year or two of your contract, then adding a #7 pick probably doesn't do much for you other than hurt your chances of re-signing. the only way you would actually be motivated to help your team get a high pick is if you knew you were a part of your team's future, at least in the medium term.

in golden state's case, i think that means four guys: david lee (signed through '16), andrew bogut (through '14, but they'll obviously try to keep him), steph curry (signed through '14, then a likely extension will kick in), and klay thompson (through '15 and then an extension). of those four, two are injured and have no impact on how the team plays down the stretch of close games like the last two nights. and out of lee and thompson, i haven't seen anything that indicates that they want to lose.

as for the rest of their roster, a high draft pick probably hurts them more than helps them -- won't get resigned, will lose minutes/shots in a contract year, etc.
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Yes. I agree with all of that. I was just saying that I didn't believe he was correct about that one point, and I think that having the players know what's at stake would actually increase the validity of his overall argument.
 
zman1527 said:
My bigger worry about making the playoffs is that management will think we are getting close and keep this whole team together. Kinda like the year when they made WCF finals (06?). They thought they were right there, but it was mainly due to getting GS in the second round. Yet it seems they would not recognize that so we went several more years with booz-ak-okur and diminishing returns.
Click to expand...

I have a hard time believing that management would think we're getting close just by squeaking into the playoffs. I think by all measures the team has overachieved this season and I'm sure the front office is aware of that. I think barely getting in or barely missing the playoffs wouldn't change that one way or the other.
 
agree with mrob. i think they have a plan that hinges around the current yout, the draft picks, maybe the TPE, and the summer of 2013 when there's some money to spend. they're not going to overreact to a first-round playoff exit and scrap the long-term plan at the expense of a right-now movement that doesn't have enough juice for the jazz to be elite.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
Yes. I agree with all of that. I was just saying that I didn't believe he was correct about that one point, and I think that having the players know what's at stake would actually increase the validity of his overall argument.
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Hey Joe, you're probably right in some cases, but I still wonder in others. In GS it's such a huge part of the team's future (top 7 pick or nothing) that they probably know. They have a beat writer who offers a daily tweet titled "TANK WATCH."

I still wonder about a team like the Jazz, where it's not such a focus because the Jazz are focusing on the playoffs, not retaining a pick. I kind of doubt it's discussed as a team, so individual players would have to know about it. Nerd, if you can work it into your conversations with the players, find out if they know anything about pick that's owed to Minnesota.

Either way Joe, thanks for reading. It's always nice to know we have an audience over there.
 
Looks like the Jazz very likely will finish 2-4. No way they make the playoffs with that. I figure both Portland games are winnable. Memphis, Dallas, Orlando and Phoenix should be losses. Hope I'm wrong.
 
We shouldn't have won in Houston right? So still on schedule. Utah has to win all home games plus maybe 1 or 2 on the road.
 
sgjazzfan said:
Are people still excited to make the playoffs and lose 4 straight games and a lottery pick?
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Apparently. Nothing like going to the playoffs only to get smoked and lose a lottery pick in the process. I agree that it might help with some of the young guys development, but we still have needs that this draft can fill. Better to keep that pick and make a run at the playoffs next year.
 
We have a more preferable schedule than PHX to close the season. However, they only have one more road game which is against us.

The winner of that game could very well determine who goes to the playoffs as the #8 seed. They close with the Spurs at home who will probably be sitting everybody which bites.
 
Avery said:
We have a more preferable schedule than PHX to close the season. However, they only have one more road game which is against us.

The winner of that game could very well determine who goes to the playoffs as the #8 seed. They close with the Spurs at home who will probably be sitting everybody which bites.
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Agreed. The winner between the 9th and 10th place teams will magically end up in the playoffs. Oo
 
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