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Jazz vs. Mavs in round one

Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Yeah, but we're leaner, meaner and more focused now. Seriously, Dinwidde and Brunson can only go off for so much. Maybe they combine for 50 or 60 points, and maybe Bertans shoots 8-for-8 from 29 feet, but I don't see how the Mavs can score enough without Luka in the lineup.
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Brunson and Dinwiddie give you 55-60, DFS can score 15-20 banging threes from the corner like Terrence Mann, Powell gives you 10 off dunks and rebounds... Kleber, Bullock, or Bertans have an okay shooting game and you are right at 110 ish points.

Dallas is a good defensive team... maybe not equipped to handle us... but if Donovan has an off night and Brunson or Dinwiddie are a little spicy it could happen for sure. Say Luka is out all 3 games... the gambling odds for the Jazz to go 3-0 would be fairly steep. They could also sneak game 1 because Quin thinks Luka may show up and the team is only kind of prepared. Dallas knows their plans... we do not.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Brunson and Dinwiddie give you 55-60, DFS can score 15-20 banging threes from the corner like Terrence Mann, Powell gives you 10 off dunks and rebounds... Kleber, Bullock, or Bertans have an okay shooting game and you are right at 110 ish points.

Dallas is a good defensive team... maybe not equipped to handle us... but if Donovan has an off night and Brunson or Dinwiddie are a little spicy it could happen for sure. Say Luka is out all 3 games... the gambling odds for the Jazz to go 3-0 would be fairly steep. They could also sneak game 1 because Quin thinks Luka may show up and the team is only kind of prepared. Dallas knows their plans... we do not.
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Brunson and dinwiddie give you 60 lol. They both average around 30 per game? Ya, no, i think not.
They are more likely to combine for about 30 per game.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The amount of minutes he plays, the load on offense, and having to work on defense (or they completely go away from their scheme and play zone) would put so much stress on a muscle that won't be 100% healed. I'd consider doing some trapping... anything that makes him make a bunch of moves and work to get the ball back. And of course you pick him up full court so he has to work just to get the ball over the line. No cheap shots of course but if people aren't questioning how ethical the approach is then you may not have pushed it far enough.

We have to be like Brett the Hitman Hart and go for the knee kicks before throwing him into the sharpshooter.
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Once they put him on the floor, I don't see that as a question of ethics. It's all fair game. If he's healthy enough to score on us, we are in our right to do everything within the rules to make it as hard as possible on him and put as much stress on him as possible. If he gets reinjured it's on Dallas and their medical staff for putting him out there, not on us for attacking a vulnerability.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Brunson and Dinwiddie give you 55-60, DFS can score 15-20 banging threes from the corner like Terrence Mann, Powell gives you 10 off dunks and rebounds... Kleber, Bullock, or Bertans have an okay shooting game and you are right at 110 ish points.

Dallas is a good defensive team... maybe not equipped to handle us... but if Donovan has an off night and Brunson or Dinwiddie are a little spicy it could happen for sure. Say Luka is out all 3 games... the gambling odds for the Jazz to go 3-0 would be fairly steep. They could also sneak game 1 because Quin thinks Luka may show up and the team is only kind of prepared. Dallas knows their plans... we do not.
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Look Debbie, everything would have to go right for the Mavs to beat the Jazz without Luka. Not saying it's impossible, but it's an outlier. Jazz should be leading games at halftime by like 53-41 or 58-43. Quin is finally smart enough to put House on Dinwiddie, let Kleber fire away from deep and press up on shooters to see who can put the ball down and challenge Gobert. Their guys are going to have to shoot off the dribble from mid-range, as they're not going to get a steady diet of 3s without Luka setting them up. They're not a team that scores much in the paint in the first place.

On the other end, the Jazz would have to be proactively bad for a lot of offensive possessions. Granted, that's something they're entirely capable of, but Dinwiddie, Brunson and Josh Green are pretty average defenders, and they're not going to keep our guards from getting looks and going where they want to go. Jazz's bigs should also dominate in the paint against Powell, Kleber or DFS (if the Mavs go super small). I'm not sure how the Mavs are going to stop Rudy and Hassan from putting up 35/25 combined. I could literally see the Mavs experiment with Boban trying to keep our bigs off the boards.
 
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fishonjazz said:
Brunson and dinwiddie give you 60 lol. They both average around 30 per game? Ya, no, i think not.
They are more likely to combine for about 30 per game.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
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I'm saying in 1 out of 3 games they could combine for that many. Brunson scored 25 and 22 on us this year... Dinwiddie scored 20 and 23 against us... Luka missed one game and Rudy missed one of those games.

Its like yall forgot that Reggie Jackson gave us 29, 27, and 22 in playoff games last year. Could Dinwiddie get 30 and Brunson get 25 in a game at the same time... with our perimeter defense? Yup! Could DFS get 20 against us and cause Rudy to have to leave the paint.... Yup! What if Kleber or Bertans get hot for a game? This is all **** that can and will happen over a 3 game sample.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Look Debbie, everything would have to go right for the Mavs to beat the Jazz without Luka. Not saying it's impossible, but it's an outlier. Jazz should be leading games at halftime by like 53-41 or 58-43. Quin is finally smart enough to put House on Dinwiddie, let Kleber fire away from deep and press up on shooters to see who can put the ball down and challenge Gobert. Their guys are going to have to shoot off the dribble from mid-range, as they're not going to get a steady diet of 3s without Luka setting them up. They're not a team that scores much in the paint in the first place.

On the other end, the Jazz would have to be proactively bad for a lot of offensive possessions. Granted, that's something they're entirely capable of, but Dinwiddie, Brunson and Josh Green are pretty average defenders, and they're not going to keep our guards from getting looks and going where they want to go. Jazz's bigs should also dominate in the paint against Powell, Kleber or DFS (if the Mavs go super small).

I could literally see the Mavs experiment with Boban, tbh.
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I admire you and @fishonjazz for your confidence. I however have seen how this can go very wrong very fast... so I would guess we are up 2-1 if Luka hasn't played in the first 3. Yall acting like it is impossible when it is entirely possible and in fact likely.
 
If we have a bad shooting night.

If the Mavs have a good shooting night.

If Rudy gets in foul trouble one game.

Each of those events on their own are unlikely in one given game... but there will almost always be some one game outlier that is likely. Weird **** happens.

I'd say if Luka misses all three the most likely outcome is us up 2-1, second most likely is us up 3-0...
 
I think Mitchell is going to average his playoff average of 33+ pts. Whether he's efficient is another question.
I think Gobert and Whiteside are going to combine for ~30/25 most nights.
I think Clarkson and Bogdanovic should combine for 35 pts. most nights.
Conley will play significant minutes on a longer leash and probably put up 15 pts.
Then Royce, House, Hernangomez/Gay, and Butler can fill in another dozen points.
A couple of our guys will probably have a bad game on any given night, and the Jazz might score 114 pts or so, which is their season average.

But I just don't see how the Mavs without Luka are going to finish within 10 points of the Jazz unless the game is a pretty significant outlier.
 
infection said:
You’re mistaking our coach for someone who kills hookers. He doesn’t even do that in GTA.
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Nice line but Jazz put Doncic on-ball their every match-up.

That's how they won against OKC. Mercilessly forced switches onto Melo.

Denver series they hunted MPJ a **** ton. Even Clippers series they were pulling Kennard towards the ball.
 
Listening to Andy Larsen on Checkett's show, he doesn't seem to think Luka will miss much time at all. Says that the Mavs cater to Luka the same way the Jazz cater to Donovan, so they're unlikely to hold him out if he feels he's ready to come back. Also says Luka has a history of making quick comebacks from injury.
 
Jingled said:
Listening to Andy Larsen on Checkett's show, he doesn't seem to think Luka will miss much time at all. Says that the Mavs cater to Luka the same way the Jazz cater to Donovan, so they're unlikely to hold him out if he feels he's ready to come back. Also says Luka has a history of making quick comebacks from injury.
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I mean... that could mean he actually misses more time.
 
Jingled said:
Listening to Andy Larsen on Checkett's show, he doesn't seem to think Luka will miss much time at all. Says that the Mavs cater to Luka the same way the Jazz cater to Donovan, so they're unlikely to hold him out if he feels he's ready to come back. Also says Luka has a history of making quick comebacks from injury.
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Some injuries you just can’t or at least shouldn’t. I legit wouldn’t be very surprised at all if he doesn’t play in the first 3 games maybe 4.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Some injuries you just can’t or at least shouldn’t. I legit wouldn’t be very surprised at all if he doesn’t play in the first 3 games maybe 4.
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I bet he misses the first two games and is back by game 3...obviously just a guess though, not even Luka or the Mavs know at this point how long he'll be out.
 
Jingled said:
Listening to Andy Larsen on Checkett's show, he doesn't seem to think Luka will miss much time at all. Says that the Mavs cater to Luka the same way the Jazz cater to Donovan, so they're unlikely to hold him out if he feels he's ready to come back. Also says Luka has a history of making quick comebacks from injury.
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You can come back from sprains on joints faster if they can be immobilized. You can tough it out. With hamstring and calf’s you can come back and go half speed like James harden did last year in the playoffs but he was completely ineffective and you risk doing serious harm if you turn and plant and decide to go for it. I’d say the calf might even be trickier than the hamstring.

If he comes back too early he will almost surely reinjure it and make it worse. KD is a tough MFer and came back and it was a terrible decision.

Unless it’s the most mild calf strain ever I don’t think he plays games 1 and 2… I think they dangle him to keep us guessing and keep the other guys hopes up. It’s easier to manage if you tell the guys not to get discouraged… they just need to steal 1 game then they can get Luka back.
 
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