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Kevin Pelton projects the Jazz as the #2 seed in the West

Joe Bagadonuts said:
Long before the season started everyone was predicting a rough start and a stronger finish for the Jazz, not because they expected them to get better or healthier (both of which they did) but because the schedule was easier. In other words, a 54 win season would not be a big fall-off.
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I see what you're saying but there's no way we come close to the futile play of November/December/January of last year. We gonna crush.
 
str8line said:
Why wouldn't they come close to maintaining that form? They'll have Exum, Sefolosha, Grayson... and Rudy might stay healthy the whole season... Donovan shouldn't struggle like he did early season. Every player should probably be better next year since none of them are on the downside of their careers, including Ricky IMO.

Not saying they'll go over 60 wins since I hedged my bet at 58(wanted to say 60 but we're going to have a target on our back this year), but still I wouldn't be surprised if we went 64-18 like the Pistons of '06. There's no reason to underestimate this team, really. Even though I kind of did. :)
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Because that was against the easiest schedule in the league to close the season out. They can't maintain that against an even tougher schedule for the season. 54 wins would be a great season, I hope for higher.
 
gregbroncs said:
Because that was against the easiest schedule in the league to close the season out. They can't maintain that against an even tougher schedule for the season. 54 wins would be a great season, I hope for higher.
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54 wins would be a very good season, but not great. Great for this team would be 60+ wins. I think we go 58 but really hope we can pull off 60. Firing on all cylinders, 60 is possible for sure.
 
colton said:
In short, yes. There's no way the Jazz come close to maintaining the winning percentage of their 29-6 stretch over the coming season. That would be a 68 win season, for goodness sake. Does anyone think the Jazz will win 68 next year? Or close to that? Of course, I'd love to be wrong.
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No, but imo 58 is possible. I think the floor for this team (health and all that notwithstanding) is about 56 wins and the ceiling is 62. Anything in there will not surprise me. Anything outside of that will. I think we are a solid 58 win squad. But in the wild west who knows?
 
colton said:
In short, yes. There's no way the Jazz come close to maintaining the winning percentage of their 29-6 stretch over the coming season. That would be a 68 win season, for goodness sake. Does anyone think the Jazz will win 68 next year? Or close to that? Of course, I'd love to be wrong.
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That is amazing, to end the season on a 68-win pace.
 
The love SAS is getting is too much hype. I think last season was a fluke and this year will be downhill. I just cant see that cast of role players winning 48 again. If they do, Pop in the running for COTY again.
 
gregbroncs said:
And lost Mbah a Moute. They lost 2 defenders and gained a non defender, inefficient ball hog. They got significantly worse.
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I’m hearing the Rockets are in trade discussion with the hawks for Bazemore for Anderson. Haven’t heard much about Baze the last couple years, is he still a good 3&D player?
 
idestroyedthetoilet said:
The love SAS is getting is too much hype. I think last season was a fluke and this year will be downhill. I just cant see that cast of role players winning 48 again. If they do, Pop in the running for COTY again.
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Two current/multiple time all-stars, a really good supporting cast, and the best coach of all time = "cast of role players" to you?
 
NUMBERICA said:
Two current/multiple time all-stars, a really good supporting cast, and the best coach of all time = "cast of role players" to you?
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They have been picking teams apart with good role players in their system for years. There won't be as many lay down wins, but Demar and LA together give them enough offense to win a good amount of games.

I'd take the over... I think they just have a low ceiling as a team. They likely aren't beating the top teams, but will feast on the bottom feeders.
 
str8line said:
54 wins would be a very good season, but not great. Great for this team would be 60+ wins. I think we go 58 but really hope we can pull off 60. Firing on all cylinders, 60 is possible for sure.
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The win distribution in the west will producer lower win totals for the top teams (except GS) I think two or three wins will separate 3-8. I don't know what to think of Houston... no doubt they got worse, but they were really really good. Their point differential was so high last year it may only cost them 4-5 games.

The west is a murderers row this year... not just 1-10, but no teams appear to want to tank. Phoenix is the most likely candidate, but sacramento doesn't even have their own pick... Dallas and Memphis both trying to compete. There will be very few lay down games in the west and more schedule losses because everyone is trying to compete.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Two current/multiple time all-stars, a really good supporting cast, and the best coach of all time = "cast of role players" to you?
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They lost what little shooting they had. They're built around 2 high volume shooters that aren't the most efficient. Aldridge is marginally better offensively than Al Jefferson was. Not a huge fan of that build.
 
idestroyedthetoilet said:
They lost what little shooting they had. They're built around 2 high volume shooters that aren't the most efficient. Aldridge is marginally better offensively than Al Jefferson was. Not a huge fan of that build.
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It's different... they are both somewhat efficient because they both get to the line (Derozan does a lot... LA a fair amount). Both guys are low turnover guys. Just because they don't shoot threes it doesn't mean they don't produce.

I think they will be slightly better this year, but it likely means another season in the high 40s in wins.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It's different... they are both somewhat efficient because they both get to the line (Derozan does a lot... LA a fair amount). Both guys are low turnover guys. Just because they don't shoot threes it doesn't mean they don't produce.

I think they will be slightly better this year, but it likely means another season in the high 40s in wins.
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Somewhat efficient. I'm used to being wrong with pre-season predictions. They might be better but I don't expect any splashes.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The win distribution in the west will producer lower win totals for the top teams (except GS) I think two or three wins will separate 3-8. I don't know what to think of Houston... no doubt they got worse, but they were really really good. Their point differential was so high last year it may only cost them 4-5 games.

The west is a murderers row this year... not just 1-10, but no teams appear to want to tank. Phoenix is the most likely candidate, but sacramento doesn't even have their own pick... Dallas and Memphis both trying to compete. There will be very few lay down games in the west and more schedule losses because everyone is trying to compete.
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If we went 32-16 to start the year last year we would have had 60 wins.

I agree the West will be tougher but it won't be too different. As you said Houston is going to give up some games. Probably to us(the four games we lost to them in the regular season last year). And we should be a better team than last year, right?
 
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Only the Jazz had injury issues. Only other teams can overachieve, the Jazz's sudden departure from their mean is their true selves. No other teams improved, unlike the Jazz who added another combo guard that might not see the floor and... well, I guess nothing else.

Do I understand correctly how that works?
 
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