Lauri + Tank

[SoberasHotRod]

This didn't need it's own thread, but it's slow...

From everything we are hearing it sounds like our plan for next year is to keep Lauri and still try to keep ourselves in position to get a really high draft pick. This is the direction I was hoping we would go, because Lauri is amazing, and when we're ready to compete we're going to wish we had him on our roster. There are a lot of risks and considerations with this approach that I think are interesting and worth discussing. We've discussed them in other threads, but I created a centralized thread to discuss (again, probably unnecessary).

A few interesting topics:

- How bad can a roster with Lauri be? Will Hardy be in on the tank?
- What are our realistic expectations for this year/this approach?
- Who are the guys from the 2025 draft that could put us over the top?
- What to do with the rest of our roster this season?
- What do we do next off season?
- How patient is Lauri, the fan base, the FO to continue to try and build through the draft?
- Who might be available next off season? How/When do we pivot to win now?

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

As long as the young guys get the bulk of the minutes and Clarkson and Collins don’t get priority like last year we will have no problem getting a top 5-7 pick with a good chance to move up

 

[homeytennis]

I think if Hardy gives the first and second year guys a lot of run we could be epic as in Washington Generals epic.

 

[HermanG]

HC being in on the tank is a bad idea. The only proper way to tank is to make sure the roster is bad/raw enough.

Pretty much everything else sabotages development, except maybe for some rare cases where unusual position/role unlocks something for a guy.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Here's my current expectations for how this will play out and the different realistic scenarios I'm envisioning:

- I think Kessler will get the starting job and play much better this year, Collins will be better in a backup role. Clarkson will be improved and moved at the deadline, Keyonte will look better, but still not be a positive contributor yet. I think we have to play Lauri his regular minutes so he can get All Star considerations and if he is in the running for any end of year awards, we'll need to make sure he gets at least 65 games. I think Sexton continues to play about as good as he did after getting the starting role last year, which potentially ends up with us trading him at the deadline to help the tank. I don't think any of our rookies will be major positive contributors this year, but think they'll all show flashes. I'm expecting Hendricks to be about neutral. We'll still have some major gaps on perimeter defense, play making, passing, etc.
- I think we get to the trade deadline with about the 8th best odds and tank our way to the 5th-6th best odds and end up with around the 6th pick. We'll get a guy who is really exciting at 6, but he won't be a guy that is projected to be MVP level good. I think we'll try to consolidate our other draft picks with some of our young players to move up/move out of the draft since we won't have enough roster spots/development time for everyone.
- With that landscape in mind I would fully expect the front office to have a very similar off season to this season. They will kick the tires on win now trades that are available, but my confidence in Ainge getting something done is low since he won't overpay. At that point they'll have the decision of what to do with Lauri and how to approach the 2026 draft which by this time next year I'm expecting to look like an all time great draft (front loaded).
- I'm hoping, but not expecting for our young guys to step up and look like franchise changers, for us to get lottery luck and get a top 4 pick in the draft, for a star to become available next offseason that we can trade for, etc. The Lauri + tank path gives us some really exciting possibilities, but the risk is it extends the rebuild by continuing to not be able to add star talent.

 

[HermanG]

Here's my current expectations for how this will play out and the different realistic scenarios I'm envisioning:

- I think Kessler will get the starting job and play much better this year, Collins will be better in a backup role. Clarkson will be improved and moved at the deadline, Keyonte will look better, but still not be a positive contributor yet. I think we have to play Lauri his regular minutes so he can get All Star considerations and if he is in the running for any end of year awards, we'll need to make sure he gets at least 65 games. I think Sexton continues to play about as good as he did after getting the starting role last year, which potentially ends up with us trading him at the deadline to help the tank. I don't think any of our rookies will be major positive contributors this year, but think they'll all show flashes. I'm expecting Hendricks to be about neutral. We'll still have some major gaps on perimeter defense, play making, passing, etc.
- I think we get to the trade deadline with about the 8th best odds and tank our way to the 5th-6th best odds and end up with around the 6th pick. We'll get a guy who is really exciting at 6, but he won't be a guy that is projected to be MVP level good. I think we'll try to consolidate our other draft picks with some of our young players to move up/move out of the draft since we won't have enough roster spots/development time for everyone.
- With that landscape in mind I would fully expect the front office to have a very similar off season to this season. They will kick the tires on win now trades that are available, but my confidence in Ainge getting something done is low since he won't overpay. At that point they'll have the decision of what to do with Lauri and how to approach the 2026 draft which by this time next year I'm expecting to look like an all time great draft (front loaded).
- I'm hoping, but not expecting for our young guys to step up and look like franchise changers, for us to get lottery luck and get a top 4 pick in the draft, for a star to become available next offseason that we can trade for, etc. The Lauri + tank path gives us some really exciting possibilities, but the risk is it extends the rebuild by continuing to not be able to add star talent.

I agree with most but I do think Ainge is willing to pay up and take chances when the time is right for that. He is in value hunter mode right now as that fits to where we are as a team.

 

[fishonjazz]

This didn't need it's own thread, but it's slow...

From everything we are hearing it sounds like our plan for next year is to keep Lauri and still try to keep ourselves in position to get a really high draft pick. This is the direction I was hoping we would go, because Lauri is amazing, and when we're ready to compete we're going to wish we had him on our roster. There are a lot of risks and considerations with this approach that I think are interesting and worth discussing. We've discussed them in other threads, but I created a centralized thread to discuss (again, probably unnecessary).

A few interesting topics:

- How bad can a roster with Lauri be? Will Hardy be in on the tank?
- What are our realistic expectations for this year/this approach?
- Who are the guys from the 2025 draft that could put us over the top?
- What to do with the rest of our roster this season?
- What do we do next off season?
- How patient is Lauri, the fan base, the FO to continue to try and build through the draft?
- Who might be available next off season? How/When do we pivot to win now?

Good thread.
I really hope they pull out all the stops this season. Make this season count and maybe we can get back to winning quickly. Get dirty. 5 minutes left in a tie game? Make Hendricks work on his point guard skills. Put Collier on Durant. Secure that loss. Cant lose em all but when the opportunity is there they got to take it.

Rest sexton and Lauri when we play the blazers.

Accrue some damn fines from the league please.

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[fishonjazz]

I agree with most but I do think Ainge is willing to pay up and take chances when the time is right for that. He is in value hunter mode right now as that fits to where we are as a team.

This.

I think the reason you are seeing the off season we are currently having is because we are still on the tanking for The Guy step. If Ainge feels we got that guy then I think he actually goes big game hunting instead of just talks about it.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

- How bad can a roster with Lauri be? Will Hardy be in on the tank?
- What are our realistic expectations for this year/this approach?
- Who are the guys from the 2025 draft that could put us over the top?
- What to do with the rest of our roster this season?
- What do we do next off season?
- How patient is Lauri, the fan base, the FO to continue to try and build through the draft?
- Who might be available next off season? How/When do we pivot to win now?

1. I mean, that is kind of open-ended. You can be incredibly bad if the roster is *** around him. I dont think the Jazz roster is *** though. I think the Jazz's current roster has a higher likelihood of finishing 10-14 than 1-5 (6-9 is what I would consider most likely). I'm sure if it comes down to the Jazz barely being in that bottom range of 10-14, the Jazz will do stuff to make sure they lose a lot.
2. I'm honestly not sure. I expect Lauri to be re-signed. I just dont think San Antonio is quite ready to push chips in and they have cap-space in 2025 to sign players who will probably want to play with Wemby. San Antonio is the only team I view as potentially putting in a package that makes Utah think hard.
   • Assuming the Jazz bring in the current roster, I would expect they start Walker instead of Collins and either Hendricks or Williams at the 3 with Clarkson/Collins/Juzang/Sensabaugh/Eubanks off the bench. I do think Filipowski and Collier start off in the G-League. I would expect that team to be pretty competitive as long as Keyonte/Walker take meaningful steps forward and Clarkson/Collins accept their bench roles and take them seriously. Even if Sexton/Lauri are the same as last year, that will be a respectable team.
     • And I just dont see how you can easily break that team up without trading Sexton. I know there have been Walker rumors, but I doubt they want to trade him. I could see them wanting to trade Sexton and just hoping someone ponies up decent value. If Clarkson/Collins are truly not tradeable now, I dont that suddenly changing just because of a hot start. It would take them having sustained success to the all-star break before interest would get real enough to trade unless there is just a perfect team out there who has the correct expiring contract who is willing to just do a straight swap.
3. I'm a draft guy and I have no idea. I find scouting guys pre-college or pre-pro experience to be too laborious. Guys look good on highlights though.
4. You definitely want to trade Clarkson ASAP. I could see an argument for keeping Collins around if he proves to be a good 3rd big. He's probably not going to get signed on his next contract to be a starter. Maybe he stays in Utah on a great deal after being seen as a letdown from what his career looked like that he gets undervalued. But if anyone is willing to give up any kind of asset (like even 2nd rounders) I'd probably deal him if you are getting back expiring money.
5. Probably the same thing we are doing now, talking about if we should trade Lauri or not.
   • From a pure tank perspective, the best case scenario is the roster over performs early and raises everyone's value to the point where a team pays for Sexton. A team pays for Clarkson. Collins becomes tradeable in the off-season. The team performs well enough for Lauri to be an all-star again. The Jazz finish 8th, but get lottery odds favor in a top 5 jump. You trade Lauri for the GOAT package in the off-season and you plan to organically tank in 2026 and you build your team from there.
   • If not, you are probably trying to trade for the guy next to Lauri, again. Or maybe you're signing Ingram?
6. We are all Jazz Sickos here, so we have no choice. We will be here no matter what. I think the Jazz have a dedicated fanbase to where they will be fine if they put it off for another few years. But I'd rather try to move forward and hope for luck along the way. I wouldnt push chips in, but I would try to make the roster as good as I could with upside plays (like trading Collins/Kessler for Ingram). I
7. Kawhi Leonard could be available. Maybe Curry? Anthony Davis? Trae Young? Jimmy Butler?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Good thread.
I really hope they pull out all the stops this season. Make this season count and maybe we can get back to winning quickly. Get dirty. 5 minutes left in a tie game? Make Hendricks work on his point guard skills. Put Collier on Durant. Secure that loss. Cant lose em all but when the opportunity is there they got to take it.

Rest sexton and Lauri when we play the blazers.

Accrue some damn fines from the league please.

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

I'm visualizing some of what you are saying and it would be hilarious.

 

[KqWIN]

- How bad can a roster with Lauri be? Will Hardy be in on the tank?
I have the current roster finishing somewhere between 3-7. I have a group of 4-5 teams right after BKN and WAS where anyone could feasibly be at the high or low end of that tier. Kessler could be the thing that tiers us up. He raises our defensive ceiling so much, so if we play him 30 MPG that will lead to more wins than expected.

Yes Will Hardy will be on the tank, there is no reason to believe otherwise. He was very committed to the tank in years past when the incentives were lower. Very few coaches are as loud/proud about tanking as Hardy was last year.

- What are our realistic expectations for this year/this approach?
I think the approach will be similar, but we will pull the plug earlier/won't be competing as hard at the beginning. I think Hardy will give the young players minutes right away (he has no other choice) and that will leave us in a worse spot than we were last year at all star break. Post all star break will be similar to last year. Players won't sit until the all star break, but we also won't be playing to optimize winning before that.

- Who are the guys from the 2025 draft that could put us over the top?
Haven't done enough research/this is an easy way to make yourself look like a fool.

- What to do with the rest of our roster this season?
Sexton/Kessler could be traded if they blow up, but the FO could decide that keeping them is worth whatever lotto balls it will cost. The odds are very flat nowadays. The odds are not significantly different 2-3 spots apart and we're already out of the top 2 race by default with Lauri.

Clarkson/Collins trade if possible, likely not possible.

The rest of the roster is young, they will play.

- What do we do next off season?
What we will do: Pray the lotto gods are on our side, if not rinse and repeat.
What we should do: Pray the lotto gods are on our side and trade Lauri

- How patient is Lauri, the fan base, the FO to continue to try and build through the draft?
Out of all these parties, I think the FO is probably the least patient. They've tried and failed year after year to build through trade. I think they are looking to move forward than backwards.

- Who might be available next off season? How/When do we pivot to win now?
To early to tell. The usual suspects (Ingram, Lavine, ect). Towns is a name I would watch.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I agree with most but I do think Ainge is willing to pay up and take chances when the time is right for that. He is in value hunter mode right now as that fits to where we are as a team.

I think value hunting is just who Ainge is, I don't think he likes to lose trades and I think he's gun shy to make big win now trades. At least that's his reputation as Almost Ainge.

Also, when will the time be right for Ainge? I can't believe that for a guy as methodical and patient as Ainge that he would base that decision on a draft pick. Even if we get Flagg I would expect Ainge to want to see him play in a couple of NBA games before determining the rebuild a success and starting to add win now pieces.

I think the only way we pivot to win now moves next off season is if one of our current players levels up significantly, which likely ruins the tank. The other way that could happen is if there is significant pressure from Ryan to start winning.

 

[fishonjazz]

I'm visualizing some of what you are saying and it would be hilarious.

And unlikely. I doubt hardy will be fully in on the tank. And I'm not even really sure he should be (though I hope he is)

It's gonna be an interesting season for sure. I'm very excited to see what happens

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[KqWIN]

I think value hunting is just who Ainge is, I don't think he likes to lose trades and I think he's gun shy to make big win now trades. At least that's his reputation as Almost Ainge.

Also, when will the time be right for Ainge? I can't believe that for a guy as methodical and patient as Ainge that he would base that decision on a draft pick. Even if we get Flagg I would expect Ainge to want to see him play in a couple of NBA games before determining the rebuild a success and starting to add win now pieces.

I think the only way we pivot to win now moves next off season is if one of our current players levels up significantly, which likely ruins the tank. The other way that could happen is if there is significant pressure from Ryan to start winning.

He vocally stated his desire tank for Kevin Durant with BOS, but that plan fell through. He also famously tried to trade everything for Winslow and did the Tatum trade. Ainge has made big bets on prospects many times.

I just think things are different now with the different lotto odds. Bottoming out is significantly worse than it was back then and as a result being elsewhere in the lottery is significantly better. It makes the decision whether to blow it up/win now more nuanced.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I don’t know but Lauri/Sexton/Walker (plus JCx2) are way too good/seasoned to be bottom-5.

 

[Miggs]

- How bad can a roster with Lauri be? Will Hardy be in on the tank?
- What are our realistic expectations for this year/this approach?
- Who are the guys from the 2025 draft that could put us over the top?
- What to do with the rest of our roster this season?
- What do we do next off season?
- How patient is Lauri, the fan base, the FO to continue to try and build through the draft?
- Who might be available next off season? How/When do we pivot to win now?

1. I mean, that is kind of open-ended. You can be incredibly bad if the roster is *** around him. I dont think the Jazz roster is *** though. I think the Jazz's current roster has a higher likelihood of finishing 10-14 than 1-5 (6-9 is what I would consider most likely). I'm sure if it comes down to the Jazz barely being in that bottom range of 10-14, the Jazz will do stuff to make sure they lose a lot.
2. I'm honestly not sure. I expect Lauri to be re-signed. I just dont think San Antonio is quite ready to push chips in and they have cap-space in 2025 to sign players who will probably want to play with Wemby. San Antonio is the only team I view as potentially putting in a package that makes Utah think hard.
   • Assuming the Jazz bring in the current roster, I would expect they start Walker instead of Collins and either Hendricks or Williams at the 3 with Clarkson/Collins/Juzang/Sensabaugh/Eubanks off the bench. I do think Filipowski and Collier start off in the G-League. I would expect that team to be pretty competitive as long as Keyonte/Walker take meaningful steps forward and Clarkson/Collins accept their bench roles and take them seriously. Even if Sexton/Lauri are the same as last year, that will be a respectable team.
     • And I just dont see how you can easily break that team up without trading Sexton. I know there have been Walker rumors, but I doubt they want to trade him. I could see them wanting to trade Sexton and just hoping someone ponies up decent value. If Clarkson/Collins are truly not tradeable now, I dont that suddenly changing just because of a hot start. It would take them having sustained success to the all-star break before interest would get real enough to trade unless there is just a perfect team out there who has the correct expiring contract who is willing to just do a straight swap.
3. I'm a draft guy and I have no idea. I find scouting guys pre-college or pre-pro experience to be too laborious. Guys look good on highlights though.
4. You definitely want to trade Clarkson ASAP. I could see an argument for keeping Collins around if he proves to be a good 3rd big. He's probably not going to get signed on his next contract to be a starter. Maybe he stays in Utah on a great deal after being seen as a letdown from what his career looked like that he gets undervalued. But if anyone is willing to give up any kind of asset (like even 2nd rounders) I'd probably deal him if you are getting back expiring money.
5. Probably the same thing we are doing now, talking about if we should trade Lauri or not.
   • From a pure tank perspective, the best case scenario is the roster over performs early and raises everyone's value to the point where a team pays for Sexton. A team pays for Clarkson. Collins becomes tradeable in the off-season. The team performs well enough for Lauri to be an all-star again. The Jazz finish 8th, but get lottery odds favor in a top 5 jump. You trade Lauri for the GOAT package in the off-season and you plan to organically tank in 2026 and you build your team from there.
   • If not, you are probably trying to trade for the guy next to Lauri, again. Or maybe you're signing Ingram?
6. We are all Jazz Sickos here, so we have no choice. We will be here no matter what. I think the Jazz have a dedicated fanbase to where they will be fine if they put it off for another few years. But I'd rather try to move forward and hope for luck along the way. I wouldnt push chips in, but I would try to make the roster as good as I could with upside plays (like trading Collins/Kessler for Ingram). I
7. Kawhi Leonard could be available. Maybe Curry? Anthony Davis? Trae Young? Jimmy Butler?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Lauri is all-world now too? Lmao. Dude’s been a perpetual loser everywhere he’s been. Let’s call a spade a spade. We’re not talking one or two years here. We’re talking like what, seven?

The Spurs were so bad with Robinson, Elliot and Co. that they got the #1 pick. If they can, we can with Lauri and a cast of unproven misfits.

 

[fishonjazz]

I think the best and easiest way for hardy to be in on the tank is to keep doing his 10-11 man rotations and spread the minutes really even. Basically play juzang, eubanks, Hendricks, Collins, key, Collier, sexton, Williams, sensabaugh, flip, Clarkson, etc all a similar number of minutes. Don't play anyone other than Lauri over 30 minutes per game and preferably no one even over 25 minutes per game.

Use lots of rotations and player combinations. Kill the chemistry and cohesion of lineup stability. Have a ton of different starting lineups.

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[fishonjazz]

I think value hunting is just who Ainge is, I don't think he likes to lose trades and I think he's gun shy to make big win now trades. At least that's his reputation as Almost Ainge.

Also, when will the time be right for Ainge? I can't believe that for a guy as methodical and patient as Ainge that he would base that decision on a draft pick. Even if we get Flagg I would expect Ainge to want to see him play in a couple of NBA games before determining the rebuild a success and starting to add win now pieces.

I think the only way we pivot to win now moves next off season is if one of our current players levels up significantly, which likely ruins the tank. The other way that could happen is if there is significant pressure from Ryan to start winning.

I think there will be pressure to start winning and I think Lauri timeline increases that pressure. I think Lauri is here to stay and Ainge won't waste him.

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[Ron Mexico]

I don’t know but Lauri/Sexton/Walker (plus JCx2) are way too good/seasoned to be bottom-5.

Especially if Sexton is let loose. Give him 30+ min a night and it's safe to assume he's improved since he works hard and improved a lot last year.

 

[jazznik]

This is all cute: we will be tanking smart by getting the value up for our players and trading them later in the season, we will sit our good players against the tanking teams, we will do the all-out tank after the trade-deadline... You know what? These other tanking teams know that and they will also sit their best players and tank hard, much harder than last season. Do you remember when the Raptors needed to finish in the bottom 10? They lost 15 games in a row to achieve that. Do you see the Jazz ready for THAT level of tanking and above?

The team with Kessler, Lauri, Collins, Sexton and Clarkson is not a bottom 5 team, they would win quite a few games against the true bottom dwellers. Also, you cannot start tanking alter in the season, you need to start from the get-go. The Wizards finished the season with the 2nd worst record. Do you know how they achieved that? By starting with a 3-20 record, with the only wins coming against Memphis, Charlotte and Detroit. And they are not alone: the Spurs started 3-20, Detroit - 2-21.

The league-wide tanking will be way more intense this year and the Jazz will be out of the competition for the worst 5 spots after the very first 25 games if they win 6-7 of them. And with the current roster they will.