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Let’s talk about NBA stats

Handlogten's Heros said:
The one thing I truly think is dumb is that hardly any players are willing to do the end of quarter heave. They need to make it so heaves aren't considered FG attempts unless they go in... heaves are sooooooo fun.... make basketball fun again.
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The easy solution is to just make them worth more points... way more points. 5, 7, 9, whatever. It would make the end of blowout games interesting, teams setting up plays to shoot half court shots!
 
Myself personally I love what nba.com does regarding 2-5 player lineups with their offensive and defensive ratings. No real use to use that until we get at least a 20-25 game sample size. It is a good way to see how certain guys play together and what our best lineups are offensively and defensively.
 
KqWIN said:
Easy, there are so many ways to impact the game besides TS%....and it's important to understand the context behind the shots that are producing that TS%.
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I understand... was making a joke based on having two measures that I like and having them say two completely different things. I'm a fan of FVV
 
r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
The easy solution is to just make them worth more points... way more points. 5, 7, 9, whatever. It would make the end of blowout games interesting, teams setting up plays to shoot half court shots!
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Nah too gimmicky... just make end of quarter heaves not count as a miss. If it goes in it counts as a make.
 
infection said:
No you just dribble that ball for 3-4 seconds until there’s no more air. Maybe do some slam dribbles. The Donovan special. You don’t wanna look desperate. Keep your integrity.
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Its a widespread epidemic. Only Alec Burks is the guy I trust to take it every time. The all hold on to it .2 or .3 seconds longer than needed and it makes me sad.
 
FWIW, i agree with you about TS% - probably my favorite stat.

is FVV a high +/- guy? are you talking just this year? if you are talking this year, +/- sucks with a small sample. last year FVV was pretty good in plus/minus, but one of the major flaws of that stat is it will always look better when you play most of your minutes with other really good players. toronto's strength last year was their starting lineup where FVV got most of his minutes. in that one sense, it can be skewed one way or the other depending on the dudes you play most of your minutes with.
Handlogten's Heros said:
These ideas also create some conundrums... like what am I supposed to do with FVV who is a **** TS% guy and a high +/- guy
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seattlejazzfan said:
FWIW, i agree with you about TS% - probably my favorite stat.

is FVV a high +/- guy? are you talking just this year? if you are talking this year, +/- sucks with a small sample. last year FVV was pretty good in plus/minus, but one of the major flaws of that stat is it will always look better when you play most of your minutes with other really good players. toronto's strength last year was their starting lineup where FVV got most of his minutes. in that one sense, it can be skewed one way or the other depending on the dudes you play most of your minutes with.
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Over his career he is a high +/- guy.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
FWIW, i agree with you about TS% - probably my favorite stat.

is FVV a high +/- guy? are you talking just this year? if you are talking this year, +/- sucks with a small sample. last year FVV was pretty good in plus/minus, but one of the major flaws of that stat is it will always look better when you play most of your minutes with other really good players. toronto's strength last year was their starting lineup where FVV got most of his minutes. in that one sense, it can be skewed one way or the other depending on the dudes you play most of your minutes with.
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Handlogten's Heros said:
Over his career he is a high +/- guy.
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And its actually on/off differential I look at. Not just straight plus/minus.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And its actually on/off differential I look at. Not just straight plus/minus.
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if he's always been a high +/- guy and a low TS% it probably means he makes guys better and is a tough defender. i don't pay enough attention to FVV to know if those things are true or not - but those are two things that can offset poor scoring efficiency.
 
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seattlejazzfan said:
he's always been a high +/- guy and a low TS% it probably means he makes guys better and is a tough defender. i don't pay enough attention to FVV to know if those things are true or not - but those are two things that can offset poor scoring efficiency.
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I don't even think he's a bad shooter per se. Takes some tough shots because of who he plays with and also some are tough because he's small. He's a smart player and tough as nails so he does a lot out there.
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
not gonna let this thread slide off the front page so quickly—especially without comments from @Handlogten's Heros @Saint Cy of JFC @infection @latin jazz @Ron Mexico etc.

(I'll save future @s for when this needs to be bumped again)
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Hey, what's up?! I have a degree in economics but there is a reason I avoided this thread like the plague haha. I'm good with numbers and statistics but I find talking about them so boring. Also, I just think some metrics make no sense, are oversimplified or misused to fit our narrative.

It's a better idea to ask me about food, music or cinema. You know, the good stuff
 
I'm a big fan of advanced stats. I get that it's constantly a work in progress, but I like the idea of anything that tries to objectively measure a player's impact. I like Raptor and I'm partial to BPM as far as the one-stat-to-rule-them-all ones go.

I'm glad that we're at a point where advanced stats are supplanting your basic boxscore ones, but I'm even more excited about them putting the "eye-test" in the garbage bin of history. The sheer idea that a human can keep track of all the information and everything that happens on the court in real time is laughable. Some of it is that there are 10 bodies in constant insanely quick motion out there, some of it is recency bias, some of it is that our brain simply can't process some of this information in a useful way. I watched the game last night and if you asked me who had the most assists on the team, I'd probably say Kelly. Not necessarily because I remember counting the assists but because of a couple of elite passes he made for easy buckets. Someone may well have had more assists on account of more simple, less-memorable passes.

That's just assists, it's pretty simple stuff. When Rudy was here and at his peak, much was made of both the opponent shooting percentage at the rim when he's defending them and how many open shots(and made baskets) his screens led to. These were just a few advanced stats that explained why we had such a good defense and eventually offense, but also why he was a top 10 player in the league. There is no way that I, or anyone else, would be able to gauge any of this just by watching the game. It's just too much information. Yeah, I knew that it was a bad idea for small guards to challenge Rudy at the rim, but I couldn't quantify it. How much of a drop off was it when Favors was in for Rudy? How does Rudy compare to other players in the league? How much of an impact does it all have on our defense? How in the world would I know? Single-game eyeball test is hard, let alone bigger, season-long trends.
 
I analyze a lot of data for athletes for different reasons for work. I use the same principles with NBA data. I dont work in this field at all, but I more or less just look for a pattern with both. Then see if that matches with what I am seeing or if it makes me look a different way and it makes sense. I dont use any particular stat but try to look at as many as possible to see correlations. That is for team numbers and offensive stuff. For individual defense I think its too complicated to get a clear picture most of the time. Even though I throw the numbers out sometimes, I dont really trust those.

I have more in depth to post about this but that's the gist.
 
The doldrums of apbrmetrics taught me more about statistics than two degrees and years of experiences in an actual working field lol. Those were some crazy times back in the day. There's a lot to learn from NBA fans with no life!
 
I hesitate to use "best", but EPM is one of the all-in-one type metrics I turn to the most. Support the site if you can!


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SoUjazzfan said:
Just remove it from 3 point % and make it it's own statistical category. Would be no reason not to chuck them up at that point
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Wasn't my exact solution but something along those lines is great. I just say have a designation for "heaves" and they don't count as fg attempts. Just say last 3 seconds of each quarter if you shoot a wild shot from beyond 30 feet its a heave and any misses don't count as an attempt. Gives them incentive to shoot it as if it goes in it will improve their FG%.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Wasn't my exact solution but something along those lines is great. I just say have a designation for "heaves" and they don't count as fg attempts. Just say last 3 seconds of each quarter if you shoot a wild shot from beyond 30 feet its a heave and any misses don't count as an attempt. Gives them incentive to shoot it as if it goes in it will improve their FG%.
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basketball-reference has a category for "heaves". While they don't subtract those shots from the others, it's obviously easy to do that.




... Seeing this thread make me remember that I was excited to dig into this... Then I had the most exhausting interaction of all time and decided, Nah, not here.
 
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