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Let’s talk about NBA stats

KqWIN said:
I hesitate to use "best", but EPM is one of the all-in-one type metrics I turn to the most. Support the site if you can!


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Do you have NBA leaders here? I like to see how different stats match expectations/eye test.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Thanks, pretty solid list.

LeBron is insane, wtf is he still doing near the top of the league.
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LeBron is not human. The other one who sticks out to me is Chet. I don't think he's top 6 player good (yet), but he's been amazing this season.

Also, just FYI for anyone out there. EPM is very similar to the original ESPN RPM (JE's version) before they chalked it and messed it up. Most people seem to think it's the approach that makes the most sense math wise and I agree, no bells and whistles to make it more marketable. DARKO is not single season, but rather an estimate on how good a player is right here and now. Previous performance plays a factor, so someone like Lauri who had an extraordinary jump will also be lagging behind in that kind of metric.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Thanks, pretty solid list.

LeBron is insane, wtf is he still doing near the top of the league.
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LeBron defies reason.
Two of the biggest things that I dont think I will ever understand are people who hate lebron with a passion and people who love trump with a passion. And I think they are often the same people lol.
 
All the stats site keep getting worse or hiding behind paywalls. Basketball reference split up their site and most the more advanced stats are hidden. Now this year NBA.com dropped a bunch of the filters for their data making it hard to get decent info out of it.
 
Ron Mexico said:
All the stats site keep getting worse or hiding behind paywalls. Basketball reference split up their site and most the more advanced stats are hidden. Now this year NBA.com dropped a bunch of the filters for their data making it hard to get decent info out of it.
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Same thing happened with NFL like 10 years ago. Legalized gambling is likely the biggest factor, but in NFL the fantasy football business is also huge and likely drove those sites behind paywalls faster.
 
Ron Mexico said:
All the stats site keep getting worse or hiding behind paywalls. Basketball reference split up their site and most the more advanced stats are hidden. Now this year NBA.com dropped a bunch of the filters for their data making it hard to get decent info out of it.
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It’s unfortunate, but a lot of the good stat sites are just made/maintained by independent people. For the amount of time these people put into it and the time I use their site I don’t have a problem paying for certain stuff. Still, there’s a lot of good free stuff out there.

I will always plug pbpstats.com. Probably the tool I use the most.
 
KqWIN said:
It’s unfortunate, but a lot of the good stat sites are just made/maintained by independent people. For the amount of time these people put into it and the time I use their site I don’t have a problem paying for certain stuff. Still, there’s a lot of good free stuff out there.

I will always plug pbpstats.com. Probably the tool I use the most.
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I dont think NBA.com is run by independent people. I think they are doing enough with money to not significantly cut back on the features on their website this year. I dont think I need to pay for stats. I pay for their app, I pay for tickets, and I pay for gear. I get random sites with their own data charging to cover whatever, but NBA is the one providing the data and should not be doing cutbacks. Especially since a lot of their data isnt available elsewhere.

I will check out that website though, thanks!
 
Ron Mexico said:
I dont think NBA.com is run by independent people. I think they are doing enough with money to not significantly cut back on the features on their website this year. I dont think I need to pay for stats. I pay for their app, I pay for tickets, and I pay for gear. I get random sites with their own data charging to cover whatever, but NBA is the one providing the data and should not be doing cutbacks. Especially since a lot of their data isnt available elsewhere.

I will check out that website though, thanks!
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Right, screw NBA.com. But there are a lot of sites out there doing good work. Pbpstats, dunksandtheees, cleaning the glass, darko app, bball-index….just to name a few. I think of those sites have some kind of paid model nowadays, but I they provide a lot of good stuff.

I’m pretty sure that at one time bball-red (and all the reference sites) were being held up by one guy who was taking donations just to pay hosting fees. Not sure if that’s still the case, but that guy was a legend.
 
rapm and luck-adjusted rapm for 23/24 season. Very noisy at this point of the season, but still useful imo. Luck adjustment seems to have a huge effect. Takeaways:

Sexton is a luck adjusted +/- god this season, especially with luck adjustment. #9 LA-rapm player this season and #2 LA-orapm player in the NBA. Pure rapm is not quire as friendly to him, but still good.

Lauri and Dunn are pure rapm standouts this season, 31st and 34 overall in rapm respectively.

Collins, Keyonte, Clarkson, and Olynyk are +/- duds this season.



View: https://twitter.com/knarsu3/status/1760526406994301302
 
KqWIN said:
rapm and luck-adjusted rapm for 23/24 season. Very noisy at this point of the season, but still useful imo. Luck adjustment seems to have a huge effect. Takeaways:

Sexton is a luck adjusted +/- god this season, especially with luck adjustment. #9 LA-rapm player this season and #2 LA-orapm player in the NBA. Pure rapm is not quire as friendly to him, but still good.

Lauri and Dunn are pure rapm standouts this season, 31st and 34 overall in rapm respectively.

Collins, Keyonte, Clarkson, and Olynyk are +/- duds this season.



View: https://twitter.com/knarsu3/status/1760526406994301302
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Wow Sexton actual RAPM rank is #157 and Luck Adjusted is #9.

Lauri #31 (actual) and #18 (luck adjusted).

How does Sexton get that massive of an adjustment compared to Lauri?
 
HermanG said:
Wow Sexton actual RAPM rank is #157 and Luck Adjusted is #9.

Lauri #31 (actual) and #18 (luck adjusted).

How does Sexton get that massive of an adjustment compared to Lauri?
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The idea behind luck adjustment is that there are some things out of a player's control. For example, the rate at with teammates/opponents make free throws, 3 pointers etc. Instead of looking at the actual result, the adjustment will just imput the average or expected outcome. They also included things like offensive rebounding and turnovers....IMO, those make less sense in theory but I'm sure there's a statistical argument that shows that these things are also random and not necessarily in a player's control.

Anyways, Sexton's adjustment is higher because the things that are random (in theory) are not going his way. His teammates are missing more than normal, opponents are making more than normal, etc.

The usefulness of Luck Adjusted numbers is still up for debate. I think it's good to know the luck adjusted and the raw rapm and kind of adjust based on personal feel from there.
 
KqWIN said:
The idea behind luck adjustment is that there are some things out of a player's control. For example, the rate at with teammates/opponents make free throws, 3 pointers etc. Instead of looking at the actual result, the adjustment will just imput the average or expected outcome. They also included things like offensive rebounding and turnovers....IMO, those make less sense in theory but I'm sure there's a statistical argument that shows that these things are also random and not necessarily in a player's control.

Anyways, Sexton's adjustment is higher because the things that are random (in theory) are not going his way. His teammates are missing more than normal, opponents are making more than normal, etc.

The usefulness of Luck Adjusted numbers is still up for debate. I think it's good to know the luck adjusted and the raw rapm and kind of adjust based on personal feel from there.
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That still doesnt quite explain that massive bump in relation to Lauri.

We are a bad shooting team that turns the ball over a lot, but even though Sextons ball security is great Lauri has just 1.2 TOPG and shoots as well with a greater volume (and thus carries our team averages more)
 
KqWIN said:
The idea behind luck adjustment is that there are some things out of a player's control. For example, the rate at with teammates/opponents make free throws, 3 pointers etc. Instead of looking at the actual result, the adjustment will just imput the average or expected outcome. They also included things like offensive rebounding and turnovers....IMO, those make less sense in theory but I'm sure there's a statistical argument that shows that these things are also random and not necessarily in a player's control.

Anyways, Sexton's adjustment is higher because the things that are random (in theory) are not going his way. His teammates are missing more than normal, opponents are making more than normal, etc.

The usefulness of Luck Adjusted numbers is still up for debate. I think it's good to know the luck adjusted and the raw rapm and kind of adjust based on personal feel from there.
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Does players missing shots that Sexton set them up with affect this?
 
HermanG said:
That still doesnt quite explain that massive bump in relation to Lauri.

We are a bad shooting team that turns the ball over a lot, but even though Sextons ball security is great Lauri has just 1.2 TOPG and shoots as well with a greater volume (and thus carries our team averages more)
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Lauri’s was already good though so it would be harder to have a massive bump like Sexton’s.
 
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