I have read some things over the last month that have really made me concerned that the NBA lockout is going to last at least a year if not more.
1. A majority of teams, 17 or more, will lose less money by not playing at all this season rather than having to pay player salaries.
2. The NBA actually makes more money when the Lakers or Knicks make it to the finals every single year, year after year, i.e., they don't really want a level playing field.
3. The Lakers and Knicks have no interest in revenue sharing like the NFL.
4. Players like Crymelo actually believe that 57% of basketball related income is fair.
5. Players will not accept non-guaranteed contracts or a hard cap under any circumstances.
In my mind there is only three ways to fix the problems. Fix the CBA, fix revenue sharing or some combination of the two. Right now revenue sharing isn't going to happen. The NBA has modeled itself after baseball where only five or six teams even have shot at a championship. They have revenue sharing but its not like the NFL where I believe more than 60% of all revenue each team makes is shared. The NBA does not want the Bucks and Jazz in the finals so they have no interest in forcing the Lakers and Knicks to share their riches. Moreover the Lakers and Knicks don't want to share their riches. Jerry Buss fought tooth and nail to keep Sacramento out of LA because he knew it might hurt their market share and bottom line. Moving Sacramento to LA may have costs the Lakes a few million dollars. Revenue sharing would take a lot more than a few million dollars out of the Lakers coffers. I think we might be lucky to see an 8 percent increase in revenue sharing and that frankly will not get it done. This doesn't even address the issue of timing since the NBA doesn't even want to discuss revenue sharing until after the CBA is done. Not addressing revenue sharing now makes me mad at the owners since I believe the only solution to this mess will be a combination of fixing both revenue sharing and the CBA.
The CBA is a mess, because the players cannot rap their heads around the issues facing the league. I read comments by Crymelo saying 57% BRI is fair and I shake my head. The players union isn't explaining these issues to the players in the correct way. I keep reading players say that revenue is up, tv ratings are up, the popularity of the game has never been higher, and the owners are just being greedy wanting to keep this increase for themselves. Players and some fans latch on to the New York Times article (a complete hatchet job) to say look not all teams are losing money. This is true, but the players have to understand the article said three teams made almost all the profit. Under the most favorable player outlook a majority of teams are still losing money big time. I do believe there is some creative accounting being used by owners, but its a fact that most teams are not making any money in the NBA because expenses have gone up and financing the cost of ownership has skyrocketed. Owners that paid 300-500 million for their team aren't seeing an increase in their team value and their expenses are higher than the increased revenues. Given these circumstances players should be willing to put everything on the table. A salary cap, non guaranteed contracts, and a substantially lower BRI. The players don't even know what they should be bargaining for. Players should be seeking a flex cap with a ceiling that hasn't been hit yet. Say a cap number of 120 million for each team. Players should be willing to allow teams to buy back the last two years of contracts, but they should be bargaining for a high buyout and a higher percentage of BRI in exchange for this substantial change in the way their compensation system used to work. Finally players have to realize that 57% of BRI was a gift from god that has to come to an end. Players need to try to get around 50% BRI in exchange for giving on the salary cap and buyout provisions. Unfortunately, players aren't being told the truth about the problems so they don't understand the concessions they are being asked to make.
This all creates a perfect storm, NBA owners being greedy and losing money. Players not understanding the problems let alone what they should be bargaining to obtain leads me to believe that the lockout will not only last this whole year, but we will miss part of the next year if not a full two years before the players finally give in and take what the owners offer. I promise this will be less than what they could have achieved by bargaining in good faith and over the right issues now.