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Looking Ahead to 2015 Lottery

Avery

Avery

Well-Known Member
As we enter the twilight of an entertaining '14 - '15 season, it's time to start thinking about the upcoming draft lottery that will be held in May. This isn't a thread dedicated to who's available in the draft or who we should take (they'll be plenty of time for that), but rather a look at where we currently stand.

The Jazz are sitting in a bit of a boom or bust position; they won't catch the Suns or Pelicans at the bottom of the order. It's also unlikely that they will draft any higher than #9 as that tier of teams are four games behind us which is probably too much distance at this point with nine games to go. What's interesting is how close the race is for the #9 - #12 spots. Boston, Indiana and Utah all sit at 32-41. Charlotte still has 10 games left to play at 31-41 with their next date hosting Boston so the logjam will continue.

#9 is obviously a lot more attractive than #12 with the flip side being that this draft is reasonably deep in the lottery (I'd classify it as two tiers: #1 - #4 in Okafor, Towns, Mudiay and Russell with the next ten picks being a flip of the coin talent-wise). As such, look for the next two weeks of the season to be a chess match of lottery teams sitting players due to back spasms, sinus infections and cholera.

Current standings:

#1 - New York - .189
#2 - Minnesota - .219
#3 - Philadelphia - .243
#4 - LA Lakers - .264
#5 - Orlando - .297
#6 - Sacramento - .361
#7 - Denver - .378
#8 - Detroit - .384
#9 - Charlotte - .431
#10t - Boston - .438
#11t - Indiana - .438
#12t - Utah - .438
#13 - Phoenix - .514
#14 - New Orleans - .534
 
The EC teams are vying for playoff spots, and so I don't think they'll try to lose games for lottery position. The Jazz have a pretty tough schedule remaining against WC playoff teams, so I'd like to think the Jazz can finish no lower in the lotto than 10th.
 
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Pretty sure there was a guy with ebola who walked through the airport around the same time as the team. Might be a good idea to quarantine Hayward and Favors, since I assume they are the most at risk.
 
good thing we already have a thread of over 500 pages already dedicated to this in detail. granted cy and dr jones argue like an old married couple.
 
I said this 5 weeks ago that we'd get the #9 pick due to the race in the East and the West for playoffs spot. Unlike every other year where there seems to always be a "tank race" at the end, this year is unprecedented in that BOS, CHA, IND and Brooklyn all have a chance to make the playoffs.


Should make our job a bit easier when they're doing all the lifting for us.
 
1-3 or nothing. I feel like this will be our destiny. We either win the lottery and keep our pick, or we trade the pick. I don't really see us moving up in the lottery and all indications from DL so far have been that we are looking to use the pick in order to reinforce the rotation with a player who can contribute right away.
 
I wonder if yesterday's loss to OKC puts Phoenix in a different mindset. Could they start tanking?
 
It's a good thing that the Jazz will end up in 12th spot and then win the lottery. I am very happy about that.
 
we need Orlando to TANK harder and pray that Lakers fall out of the top 5, so they send there pick to 76ers! I love watching LA be so bad!! Also, i'm down with the Jazz Tanking the rest of the rest of the season. Lets secure at least that 9th spot!
 
Justys said:
we need Orlando to TANK harder and pray that Lakers fall out of the top 5, so they send there pick to 76ers! I love watching LA be so bad!! Also, i'm down with the Jazz Tanking the rest of the rest of the season. Lets secure at least that 9th spot!
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Sixers could end up with 4 first rounders then?! Thiers, LA's, Miami's and OKC's. All top 20. 2 top 6 picks, 2 just outside the lottery. With that many first round picks, they are bound to eventually be good, right?
 
sgjazzfan said:
Sixers could end up with 4 first rounders then?! Thiers, LA's, Miami's and OKC's. All top 20. 2 top 6 picks, 2 just outside the lottery. With that many first round picks, they are bound to eventually be good, right?
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Honestly, it is kind of a crappy Draft to have 4 picks in. There aren't that many franchise players available, and even some of the "just solid" guys aren't free of risks. We will be OK because we aren't really looking for a franchise guy, just somebody who can shoot.
 
Russell
Towns
Mudiay
Okafor
Hezonja
Winslow
Johnson
WCS

I really hope we are able to get one of these guys, which would be much more likely were we to slip to #9. Hopefully someone jumps one of them & we are able to draft whoever is left. Kaminsky or Porzingis wouldn't be a bad consolation prize, but we really need this pick to become that missing member of our starting 5, as it will likely be the highest we will be drafting in the foreseeable future.

Getting one of Hezonja, Winslow, or Johnson would be huge for us, preferably in that order. Hezonja has the potential to be a go-to-scorer, which we desperately need. Winslow should become a great 2 way player, who would fit well alongside Hayward on the wing. Johnson looks like he will be a lockdown perimeter defender at minimum, although I really think we will need more offense at that spot than he will be able to provide. Winslow may be the best fit because he will likely be able to contribute on both sides of the ball from day 1, but I don't see us truly competing next year anyway or him ever becoming a #1 option on offense. Hezonja certainly won't be that from day 1 either, but he could eventually become that, & due to Exum still being a few years away, he shouldn't prevent us from being competitive due to the fact that our timeline is directly linked to the development of Exum.

We are at a bit of a conundrum in the sense that 3/4 of our core appear ready to contribute to a playoff caliber team now, while the other member still needs a significant amount of time to develop into that type of player. Unless we don't intend on starting Exum next year (which I think is a foregone conclusion that he will start), adding a 4th player ready to contribute to a playoff caliber team (Winslow/Johnson- along with Burks returning) would only propel us to playoff contender status were we to sign a veteran backup PG to split time with Exum (which would likely delay his overall development). This year has shown that we can still be competitive, even with an incomplete team, so unless Exum isn't in our long-term plans (which he clearly is), I think we should do what we did last year by drafting Exum in the first place, & draft the player that best fits our long-term plan, regardless of developmental timeline. The only other argument I can see is if we were to go with someone more NBA-ready such as Winslow or Johnson & attempt to either trade Exum for a PG who is able to contribute now or sign a starting caliber PG & bring Exum off the bench. Otherwise, I say we draft a potential #1 scorer (Hezonja), allow him to develop alongside Exum, & fill in the gaps with veterans who will contribute (hopefully enough to allow the team to develop & compete at the same time).
 
framer said:
Honestly, it is kind of a crappy Draft to have 4 picks in. There aren't that many franchise players available, and even some of the "just solid" guys aren't free of risks. We will be OK because we aren't really looking for a franchise guy, just somebody who can shoot.
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Depends where your picks are though. I would say this draft is "strong" to "quite strong" in the #1 - #9 range. (free Rep for anyone who can guess what movie I'm trying to reference)


If you have 2-3 picks in that range you're set. But beyond that it's pretty average.
 
ONE LOVE said:
Depends where your picks are though. I would say this draft is "strong" to "quite strong" in the #1 - #9 range. (free Rep for anyone who can guess what movie I'm trying to reference)


If you have 2-3 picks in that range you're set. But beyond that it's pretty average.
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Greg's a male nurse!

Meet the parents!
 
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