What's new
By:

Lottery odds and order

K

Kenwood

Well-Known Member
Here is the info pending the coin flip on Friday (I'll update then):

1. Minnesota - 250 combinations
2. Cleveland - 199 combinations
3. Toronto - 156 combinations
4. Washington - 119 combinations
5. Utah (from NJ) OR Sacramento - 76 combinations
6. Sacramento OR Utah (from NJ) - 75 combinations
7. Detroit - 43 combinations
8. Clippers - 28 combinations
9. Charlotte - 17 combinations
10. Milwaukee - 11 combinations
11. Golden State - 8 combinations
12. Utah - 7 combinations
13. Phoenix - 6 combinations
14. Houston - 5 combinations

Overall Jazz will have 83 or 82 chances in the lottery, better than 8% chance at #1 and around 27-28% chance at a top 3 pick.
 
never-tell-me-the-odds-demotivator.jpg


I like our odds, personally. 8% sounds like a winner.
 
So there are roughly 119 combinations Behind us that can bump us back. So I'm guessing a decent chance we move back?
 
dipship31 said:
Wait the difference between the 5th and 6th pick is just 1 additional combination?
Click to expand...
Franklin already covered this, but here's a little more detail. 5th worst gets 88 combinations, 6th worst gets 63 combinations. Since those two tied, the combined 151 combinations get divided. Coin flip determines who gets the extra combination (since 151 doesn't divide evenly) and also the two teams' order if neither gets a top three pick (i.e. who is #5 and who is #6).

infection said:
So there are roughly 119 combinations Behind us that can bump us back. So I'm guessing a decent chance we move back?
Click to expand...
If Jazz win the coin flip and are seeded 5th in lottery, 200 chances will belong to teams behind them. Lose the coin flip and seeded 6th in lottery, 125 chances belong to teams behind them. Both are good odds (much more likely to NOT slip than to slip), but it can happen.
 
Kenwood said:
If Jazz win the coin flip and are seeded 5th in lottery, 200 chances will belong to teams behind them. Lose the coin flip and seeded 6th in lottery, 125 chances belong to teams behind them. Both are good odds (much more likely to NOT slip than to slip), but it can happen.
Click to expand...

If the Jazz slip, hopefully it's the Jazz causing the Jazz to slip...
 
Kenwood said:
Franklin already covered this, but here's a little more detail. 5th worst gets 88 combinations, 6th worst gets 63 combinations. Since those two tied, the combined 151 combinations get divided. Coin flip determines who gets the extra combination (since 151 doesn't divide evenly) and also the two teams' order if neither gets a top three pick (i.e. who is #5 and who is #6).


If Jazz win the coin flip and are seeded 5th in lottery, 200 chances will belong to teams behind them. Lose the coin flip and seeded 6th in lottery, 125 chances belong to teams behind them. Both are good odds (much more likely to NOT slip than to slip), but it can happen.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing just a slight variation of this because the the tied records.

YTf59.jpg
 
infection said:
So there are roughly 119 combinations Behind us that can bump us back. So I'm guessing a decent chance we move back?
Click to expand...

A team can only fall 3 spots, and it's a very low chance of falling all 3. For 5th, falling to 8th has only 0.4% chance, and 7th a 8.4% chance (using Wiki). For 6th, falling to 9th has only a 0.1% chance and 8th a 4% chance. I don't know if these probabilities are skewed by the tie. My guess is the chance of falling all 3 spots rises a little, but not by much.

Look at it this way: The Jazz are much more likely to land a top 3 pick than they are to drop three spots.
 
My hopes #1 and #3 :) Irving and Barnes if he doesnt go back to college! Sign Ak (to trade him for another young potential player or Picks) Memphis got a pick and Thabeet for Batteria and rumors had it that they could of gotten Speights and a pick. I'd take that for Ak.
 
In 2005, the Jazz had the 4th worst record but ended up with the 6th pick in the lottery. Don't be shocked if something similar happens again in this lottery. "Luck" seems to elude this franchise for whatever reason...
 
I don't know what time the coin flip will occur or be made public, but I'll sleep with my fingers crossed to help out the Jazz' cause. Here's hoping for 5th seed in the lottery!
 
Statistically, the odds are not in Utah's favor to move up. Historically (if you don't believe in luck), however, they are.
Here's a breakdown of the past 10 lotteries (excluding 2004 because the Bobcats were automatically slotted with the 4th-pick).

1st-worst thru 9th-worst record-wise and their corresponding draft position post-lottery
2000 3 4 6 2 6 7 1 9 10
2001 4 5 1 6 3 7 8 2 9
2002 3 2 4 5 1 6 7 8 9
2003 1 3 4 5 6 2 7 8 9
2005 2 5 4 6 3 1 7 8 9
2006 4 2 3 4 1 6 7 8 9
2007 4 5 6 3 2 7 1 8 9
2008 2 4 3 5 6 7 8 9 1
2009 4 5 1 3 6 2 7 8 9
2010 3 4 5 6 1 2 7 8 9

To summarize incase that table makes you dizzy:
1st-worst: #1 Pick 1 time; Top-3 pick 6 times.
2nd-worst: #1 Pick zero times; Top-3 pick 3 times.
3rd-worst: #1 Pick 2 times; Top-3 pick 4 times.
4th-worst: #1 Pick zero times; Top-3 pick 3 times.
5th-worst: #1 Pick 3 times; Top-3 pick 6 times.
6th-worst: #1 Pick 1 time; Top-3 pick 4 times.
7th-worst: #1 Pick 2 times; Top-3 pick 2 times.
8th-worst: #1 pick zero times; Top-3 pick 2 times.
9th-worst: #1 pick 1 time; Top-3 pick 1 time.
 
Last edited:
Okur13 said:
So when is this coin flip?
Click to expand...

https://www.nba.com/2011/news/04/15/draft.ties/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt2

Ties broken for 2011 NBA Draft order of selection
By Official release
Posted Apr 15 2011 3:26PM

NEW YORK -- Three ties among teams that finished the 2010-11 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for the 2011 NBA Draft, which will be held on Thursday, June 23 at The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

The drawings were conducted earlier today in New York City at the Board of Governors meeting by Stu Jackson, NBA Executive Vice President, Basketball Operations.

The results of the drawings:

• Sacramento (24-58) won a tiebreaker with New Jersey.
• New Orleans (46-36) won a tiebreaker with Memphis.
• Dallas (57-25) won a tiebreaker with the Los Angeles Lakers
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top