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Lottery Standings

davidbenoit said:
I got 26.9%
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This is the wierdest thing, I calculated 29.2% chance that they get bumped by adding up the percentages that 8-14 have of getting picks 1,2, or 3.
Wiki says that the odds that 7th gets bumped to 8th is 23.2% and 1.8% that they get bumped to 9th.

You got something else.....I'm missing something
 
The problem here is that New Jersey and Toronto are already tied with GSW in the win column......and they play each other on the last day of the season. That means that, assuming the Warriors manage to lose all of their remaining games, either the Nets or Raptors will slip past the Warriors in the standings. It's likely that GSW would be tied for 6th worst record with whichever team loses the NJ/Tor game. it would obviously help tremendously if the Warriors could pick up one more win. The game against the T'wolves seems like the best chance, along with the game against NOH.
 
It's probably been mentioned in one of the previous 28 pages, but I'm lazy. how are ties handled in lottery standings?
 
The ping pong balls are divvied up evenly between the tied teams. Then there is a coin flip to separate the teams if neither gets lucky in the lotto.
 
Chris-L said:
It's probably been mentioned in one of the previous 28 pages, but I'm lazy. how are ties handled in lottery standings?
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I believe the don't actually break ties unless the number of number of combinations cannot be evenly divided.

For example, if two teams were tied with the 3rd worst record, they would average the combinations for 3rd (156) and 4th (119) and each team would get 137. There's one extra combination which I believe is decided by a flip of a coin or something.
 
probability of bump

Weezur said:
This is the wierdest thing, I calculated 29.2% chance that they get bumped by adding up the percentages that 8-14 have of getting picks 1,2, or 3.
Wiki says that the odds that 7th gets bumped to 8th is 23.2% and 1.8% that they get bumped to 9th.

You got something else.....I'm missing something
Click to expand...

29.5% chance the GS pick gets bumped to 8+ by adding the probabilities of those in 8th draft seed or lower getting a top 3 pick. The math to get to 8th, 9th or 10th is not worth the brain damage (9 is small, 10 is negligible)
 
So is GS still in the 8th spot?
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they're in a 3-way tie in the win column for 6-8. but the two teams they're tied with play each other in the season finale, so at least one of them will wind up with 23 or more wins.

moral of the story - GSW needs to win one more. they have @dal, @hou, @min, noh, sas.

if they don't, then we would need them to a) lose the coin toss, and b) still get leapfrogged by a team 8-14. only about a 10-15% chance of both those things happening.
 
I really don't like our chances. We absolutely need GS to win at least one more game if not 2 for me to be comfortable. Those little tankers probably won't win another game.
 
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